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Author Archive for Andrew Wilkinson

Options Trader Positions for Airline Recovery Story

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: UAL, HBI, SFLY & TOL

UAL - United Continental Holdings, Inc. – The airline operator’s shares rose 4.3% this morning to an intraday high of $23.76, rebounding 9.7% off of its lowest point of the week at $21.65, but still trading substantially lower than last week’s closing price of $27.02. Shares relinquished some of the earlier gains this afternoon to stand 1.65% higher on the session at $23.16 as of 12:15pm in New York. At least one options strategist is positioning for UAL’s shares to continue recovering in the next couple of months. It looks like the investor employed April contract ratio call spreads to prepare for a sizable, albeit limited, correction higher by expiration day. The trader appears to have purchased approximately 3,000 in-the-money calls at the April $22 strike for an average premium of $2.49 apiece, and sold roughly 6,000 calls up at the April $27 strike for an average premium of $0.52 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to an average of $1.45 per contract, and positions the trader to profit in the event that UAL’s shares rally 1.25% over the current price of $23.16 to surpass the average breakeven point on the upside at $23.45 by April expiration. Maximum potential profits of $3.55 per contract are available to the trader should shares in United Continental Holdings jump 16.6% to settle at $27.00 at expiration in a couple of months. The sale of twice as many higher-strike call options expose the investor to losses should the stock fly higher than he expects within the time remaining to expiration. Profits give way to losses on this strategy if shares in UAL jump 31.9% to exceed the upper breakeven price of $30.55 by April expiration day. The call options transacted in the ratio spreads represent opening positions given the minimal levels of open interest observed at either strike price.…
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Retail Bears Abound

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Today’s tickers: XRT, IMAX, ADSK & OI

XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Options traders are positioning for shares in the Retail ETF to fall substantially in the coming months. Massive bearish bets popped up on the XRT in the first half of the trading session with shares slipping further from last week’s new highs. The familiar outline of a put butterfly spread unfurled in the March contract, but was preceded by a large debit put spread initiated in the April contract within the first 15 minutes of trading. Pessimistic players are perhaps speculating that consumers, who now face heftier prices at the pump, are likely to tighten their grip on discretionary dollars going forward. Shares in the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, are currently down 2.4% at $48.02 as of 12:00pm in New York. In the past week shares in the ETF have pulled back 5.1% from an all-time high of $50.61 last Wednesday. One big put player is well-positioned to benefit from additional weakness in XRT shares in the near term. The investor purchased 20,000 puts at each of the March $46 and March $42 strikes, and sold 40,000 puts at the central March $44 strike, all for a net premium of $0.22 per contract. The net cost of the pessimistic play pales in comparison to the $1.78 per contract in maximum potential profits the investor enjoys if shares in the ETF drop to $44.00 ahead of March expiration. Meanwhile, the buyer of a 17,000-lot April $44/$47 put spread for a net premium of $0.57 per contract could walk away with up to $2.43 per contract in profits if shares in the fund slip beneath $44.00 by April expiration. Options implied volatility on the Retail SPDR has been on the rise throughout the trading session, and currently stands 12.6% higher on the session at 27.35% in early afternoon trade.…
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Contrarians Scoop up Carnival Corp. Call Options

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Today’s tickers: CCL, XLF, IRM & WAC

CCL - Carnival Corp. – Shares in the cruise company sank 8.3% this afternoon to touch an intraday low of $41.90, but it looks like some options traders expect Carnival Corp. to encounter fairer seas ahead of July expiration. More than 3,400 calls changed hands at the July $47 strike in the first half of the trading session, which is more than twice the number of contracts of open interest at that strike. It looks like the majority of the contracts, or some 2,600 of the calls, were purchased for an average premium of $1.89 apiece. Contrarians positioning for a rebound are prepared to make money should shares in CCL surge 15.0% off today’s low of $42.50 to surpass the average breakeven price of $48.89 ahead of July expiration. Carnival last traded up at a 52-week high of $48.14 back on January 6, 2011. The firm is one month away from reporting earnings for the first quarter before the market opens for trading on March 22, 2011. The sharp decline in shares today and the rise in demand for calls on the stock helped lift the overall reading of options implied volatility on Carnival 23.1% to 31.32% by 1:30pm in New York trading.

XLF - Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Three large blocks of XLF put options changed hands within the first 20 minutes of the trading session, and appear to be the foundation for a sizable bearish put butterfly spread. Shares in the XLF, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, declined as much as 2.9% during the session thus far to touch an intraday low of $16.68. The put ‘fly yields maximum benefit for one investor if shares in the…
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Iron Condor Crops Up on Tyco International Ltd.

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Today’s tickers: TYC, JWN, ACOR & MRO

TYC - Tyco International Ltd. – An investor expecting shares in Tyco International to remain range bound over the next couple of months constructed an iron condor on the industrial products company using call and put options expiring in April. Shares in Tyco are currently up 0.40% to stand at $46.98 as of 10:40am in New York. The options strategist appears to have sold the 900-lot April $48/$50 call spread to pocket an average net credit of $0.55 per contract, in combination with the sale of the 900-lot April $43/$45 put spread for an average net credit of $0.35 per contract. The iron condor yields a total net credit of $0.90 per contract, which the investor keeps in full as long as shares in Tyco International trade above $45.00 and below $48.00 through April expiration. Buying the higher-strike calls and the lower-strike puts reduces the harvestable premium on the short legs of the transaction, but also caps losses for the investor in case the position moves against him at some point. The investor faces maximum potential losses of $1.10 per contract if shares either rally above $50.00, or slip beneath $43.00 ahead of expiration day in April.

JWN - Nordstrom, Inc. – Shares in specialty fashion retailer, Nordstrom, are up 1.55% at $47.20 this morning following the firm’s better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings report after the close of trading on Thursday. Nordstrom said it earned $1.04 a share in the quarter, beating average analyst estimates of $1.00 a share. Additionally, the retailer reported it is buying the online private sale marketplace HauteLook, which has some 4 million members, for $180 million in stock. Nordstrom is reportedly the first department store chain to purchase one of the limited-time deal, or ‘flash-sale’, websites. Trading in JWN by one…
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Vale Options Combination Play

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Today’s tickers: VALE, BID, EBAY & YGE

VALE - Vale S.A. – Earlier we reported that a large-volume three-legged bearish transaction had taken place on iron ore producer, Vale. Market sources have since informed us that the direction of the trade is the reverse of what had been indicated by raw time and sales data. The new information regarding the transaction alters our interpretation of the spread to bullish from the previously reported bearish view. Shares in the Brazilian firm increased as much as 0.82% during the session to secure an intraday high of $35.60, but are currently trading 0.20% high on the session at $35.38 as of 2:50pm. The options investor responsible for most of the volume in options exchanged on Vale today reportedly sold a large number of puts on the stock in order to buy in- and out-of-the-money call options in the May contract. The investor paid a net $2.24 per contract, selling 23,000 May $30 strike puts in order to buy 11,500 May $35 strike calls and another 11,500 calls up at the May $40 strike. The transaction positions the trader to benefit from bullish movement in the price of the underlying shares heading into Vale’s fourth-quarter earnings report on February 24, 2011, through to expiration day in May.

BID - Sotheby’s Holdings Inc. – One options player pocketed big profits on a well-timed bullish bet in Sotheby’s calls this morning. The auctioneers’ shares are currently up 0.2% at $48.34 as of 11:30am in New York, but hit a 6-month high of $49.03 yesterday, driving the stock’s run up to 86.4% since August 31, 2010. The gavel-bearer populating Sotheby’s today initiated a bullish bet back on January 25, 2011, when shares in the name encountered a bump in rally-road and slipped to a three-month low of $38.23.…
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Bulls Scoop Up Valero Energy Corp. Calls

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Today’s tickers: VLO, MRVL, CHS & MU

VLO - Valero Energy Corp. – Traders flocked to the options playing field on Valero Energy Corp. this morning after the operator of refineries was raised to ‘Top Pick’ from ‘Sector Perform’ with a 12-month target share price of $35.00 at RBC Capital Markets. Shares in Valero are up 3.35% to stand at $29.40 just after 11:40am in New York. Earlier in the session the price of the underlying increased as much as 4.1% to $29.61, the highest Valero’s shares have traded since October of 2008. Near- as well as long-term bulls made their mark in VLO call options in the first half of the session. Investors expecting Valero to extend gains through expiration next month scooped up more than 2,300 calls at the March $31 strike for an average premium of $0.71 apiece. Call buyers at this strike stand prepared to make money should shares in the oil refiner rally another 7.1% over today’s high of $29.61 to surpass the average breakeven price of $31.71 by expiration day in March. Investors eyeing longer-term and more substantial gains in Valero’s shares purchased approximately 10,200 calls out at the January 2012 $35 strike for an average premium of $1.73 a-pop, on previously existing open interest of 3,126 contracts at that strike. Traders long the calls profit in the event that VLO’s shares jump 24.05% to exceed the breakeven at $36.73 within the next eleven months to expiration in 2012. Valero Energy Corp.’s shares last traded above $36.73 back in early July of 2008.

MRVL - Marvell Technology Group, Ltd. – Options strategists itching for a substantial near-term rally in chipmaker Marvell Technology Group are buying call spreads in the March contract this morning. Shares in the name are up slightly by 0.10% to stand at…
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Big Bearish Bet on Dell Pops Up Ahead of Earnings After the Close

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: DELL, AKAM, NWL & EEM

DELL - Dell, Inc. – Bearish sentiment on the personal computer maker is building in options land this afternoon ahead of Dell’s fourth-quarter earnings report after the final bell. Shares in the tech company are currently down 1.5% to stand at $13.88 just after 12:30pm in New York. One big options strategist is well-positioned to benefit from limited downside movement in the price of the underlying shares through March expiration. The investor purchased a massive put spread, picking up 25,000 lots at the March $13 strike for a premium of $0.24 each, and selling the same number of puts at the lower March $12 strike at a premium of $0.08 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the pessimistic play amounts to $0.16 per contract. The trader starts to make money in the event that Dell’s shares drop 7.5% from the current price of $13.88 to breach the effective breakeven point on the spread at $12.84 ahead of expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $0.84 per contract are available to the put player should shares in the name plunge 13.5% lower to trade below $12.00 in the time remaining to March expiration. Dell, Inc. options are popular ahead of earnings, with more than 137,000 contracts having changed hands in early-afternoon trade. Options implied volatility is up slightly by 3.0% to stand at 36.29% as of 12:40pm.

AKAM - Akamai Technologies, Inc. – A three-legged bullish options combination play on the provider of cloud optimization services caught our eye this morning. The strategist responsible for the transaction is positioning for Akamai’s shares to continue to rise ahead of March expiration. Shares in AKAM are currently up 1.2% at $42.60 just before 11:30am in New York. The stock took a big hit last week, falling as much…
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Time Warner Cable Call Buyer Tunes in for a Rally

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: TWC, RVBD, EXPE & CL

TWC - Time Warner Cable Inc. – An investor expecting shares in Time Warner Cable to pop ahead of March expiration initiated a large stock and option combination play just before 12:30pm in New York. Shares in the TWC are currently down 0.80% this afternoon to stand at $70.53. It looks like the trader enacted a delta neutral position, selling 150,000 shares of the underlying at $70.60 each, and buying 10,000 calls at the March $75 strike at a premium of $0.25 a-pop, on a 0.15 delta. The risk profile of the transaction is such that the trader may benefit somewhat on the short stock leg of the transaction should shares in the name slip in the near term. But, the profit and loss parameters of the position dictate substantially greater gains if Time Warner’s shares surge ahead of expiration day next month. If shares rally, gains on the long calls, which represent a far larger stake in the underlying than the 150,000 shares of which the investor is short, will trump losses realized on the short stock. The investor is well positioned to benefit nicely should the price of the underlying react as he predicts it will. Time Warner Cable’s reading of options implied volatility is up 5.1% on the session at 21.26% as of 1:30pm.

RVBD - Riverbed Technology, Inc. – Shares in Riverbed Technology increased as much as 4.0% this morning to secure an intraday- and new all-time high of $43.54. One big options player appears to be using call options in the name to position for the bullish momentum to continue through June expiration. It looks like the trader picked up 15,000 deep in-the-money calls at the June $39 strike for a hefty premium of $7.30 each, and sold the…
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Put Player Portends Pullback in Corning Shares

www.interactivebrokers.com

 Today’s tickers: GLW, EXPE, ODP & TSO

GLW - Corning Inc. – A massive put spread purchased on the glass maker this afternoon appears to be the work of an investor positioning for the price of the underlying stock to decline ahead of August 2011 expiration. Corning’s shares increased 0.55% this afternoon to arrive at $22.28 by 1:40pm in New York. The price of the underlying stock has climbed more than 51.6% since August 27, 2010, to touch a 52-week high of $23.43 just last Friday. The large bearish stance employed in Corning put options today is perhaps a sign that at least one player believes the next six months may not be as fruitful for GLW investors as the last six. The trader purchased 28,000 puts at the August $22 strike for a premium of $1.83 each, and sold the same number of puts at the lower August $18 strike at a premium of $0.56 apiece. Net premium required to buy the spread amounts to $1.27 per contract, thus positioning the investor to profit should Corning’s shares drop 7.0% from the current price of $22.28 to breach the effective breakeven point on the downside at $20.37 by August expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $2.73 pad the put player’s wallet in the event that shares in GLW plummet 19.2% to trade below $18.00 before the contracts expire in August. Corning’s shares last traded below $18.00 back on December 1, 2010.

EXPE - – Expedia, Inc. – Contrarian options traders are initiating bullish plays on the online travel company this morning in the face of a more than 18.25% decline in Expedia’s shares to an intraday low of $20.99. Bullish strategists established near- and long-term positions that suggest the firm’s earnings miss has been priced in to its shares. Some traders are betting the stock is unlikely to fall much further, while others are initiating outright bullish bets that Expedia’s shares will recover somewhat in the next few months. Shares in EXPE dropped after the company…
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Bullish Player Adjusts Sizable Stance in EMC Corp. Call Options

www.interactivebrokers.com

 Today’s tickers: EMC, MHS, AA & AEO

EMC - EMC Corp. – Large blocks of in- and out-of-the-money call options exchanged on EMC Corp. during the first 25 minutes of the trading session appear to be the work of one investor taking profits off the table on the one hand, and ultimately extending bullish sentiment on the stock on the other. Shares in the provider of information infrastructure technologies and solutions are currently up a slightly 0.10% to stand at a fresh 52-week high of $27.11 just before 12:00pm. It looks like the options trader originally purchased 30,000 calls at the April $24 strike for $1.00 per contract back on January 3, 2011, when shares in the name were trading around $23.23. The subsequent rally in the price of the underlying lifted premium on the now deep in-the-money calls, allowing the investor to sell all 30,000 call options at that strike today for a premium of $2.86 apiece. Net profits on the transaction amount to $1.86 per contract. Next, the trader paid a premium of $0.83 per contract to buy a fresh batch of 30,000 calls up at the July $29 strike. The investor starts to make money on the new bullish stance in the event that EMC Corp.’s shares increase another 10.0% to exceed the effective breakeven share price of $29.83 by expiration day in July.

MHS - Medco Health Solutions Inc. – The healthcare company and provider of pharmacy services popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this morning after one strategist initiated a delta neutral strategy using calls, puts and Medco stock. Shares in the name are currently up 0.50% to arrive at $62.29 in early afternoon trade. It looks like the investor purchased 295,800 shares in MHS at a price of $61.88 each, purchased 5,100 puts at the January 2012 $55 strike for a premium of $3.60 each, and sold the same number of call options up at the January 2012 $72.5 strike at a premium of $2.50 apiece,…
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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw  “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...



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Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...



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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...



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Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.


Click for a larger image

I've ...



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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading portfolio

 

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts. 

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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