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Oxen Nightly – Dow Hits 12,000, Netflix Kills It, and Oxen Group Goes 4/5

Oxen Group Nightly – Jan. 26, 2011 (www.theoxengroup.com)

The markets made it slightly higher on Wednesday after spending most of the day even higher in the green, but the real story came in after hours with a great round of earnings headed up by Netflix (NFLX) and Qualcomm (QCOM). Intraday, the market hit 12,000 before faltering off that level. The market moved up after bullish news from President Obama that he wants to have lower tax rates for businesses at the same time curbing government spending (good luck!). Further, the Fed commented that they were not making any changes to their $600B bond-buying plan or changing borrowing rates.


The Dow finished up 8. The Nasdaq finished up 20. The S&P 500 finished up 5.5. Gold finished up nearly a point.
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The Oxen Group performed exceptionally on the day. We were able to close a number of positions in the green and get solid earnings exposure in AH. We closed 3/4 of our position in Ryland Homes (RYL) before the close for a 3.5% gain. While earnings came out lackluster, the stock did not lose value in AH. We also closed our two-day Overnight Trade in Royal-Caribbean (RCL) before earnings as the stock gained over 3.5% from our entry yesterday. We also closed 3/4 of E*Trade (ETFC) for a 0.70% gain intraday, but earnings were weak in AH. The stock looks like it will open lower tomorrow, and we will close neutral. We also bought Netflix (NFLX) to start the day, but the stock trailed off the morning highs. We closed 3/4 of the position for a 1.5% loss. Yet, our entry at 185.20 is looking very solid after a great earnings report that has taken the stock over 200 in AH. We will close the stock tomorrow in the green. Our only major loss for the day was a 1.5% loss in our Short Sale Overnight Trade in MOLX that did not work out well after the stock was upgraded this morning.

On the Longtem Portfolio, we did not have any new positions today. Our solar group lost some value after a major run-up, but we have cashed in on gains for these stocks already. We did do an update on Trina Solar (TSL) and reiterated the stock as a


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Oxen Nightly: Dow Nears 12,000, Oxen Group Continues Winning Ways

The markets continued to shoot higher to start off this week after good news was released from a number of companies, and the Dow finished within 200 points of 12,000, which is the highest it has been since June 2008. Intel gave technicals a big catalyst when the company announced that they will raise their dividend. Further, the National Association for Business Economics commented that they are most optimistic about the economy and jobs coming back since December of 2007. Overall, though, the market showed great strength rebounding on bargains that have hit the market after a red finish to last week.

The Dow finished up 108. The Nasdaq finished down 21. The S&P 500 finished down 1.66. Gold finished neutral.

The Oxen Group finished the day well with a solid day trade in Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH) that worked for 2.1% intraday. The stock made a nice move off of our early morning entry with earnings looming. Some investors who held the stock into earnings were given a great report, and the stock rose over 9% in after hours. We, additionally, entered into four new positions today. We took a double position in Ruth’s Hospitality (RUTH) as the stock looked poised to make a nice bounce after a two-week drop. We took another position in DryShips (DRYS) as the stock has dropped to levels it was at in November, and it looks poised for a bounce. We also entered two new plays of the week in E*Trade (ETFC) and Ryland Homes (RYL). Both stocks looked poised for big gains before earnings as we entered them today.

On the Longtem Portfolio, we were able to exit a 1/3 position in one of our holdings in Trina Solar (TSL). The Longterm Ratings Portfolio has now improved to 2% realized gains with our four exits thus far in the $46,000 Portfolio. We have 10/12 positions in the green. We, additionally, updated our Skechers story with a reiteration at Hold and dropped our price target from 28 to 24.


Moving into tomorrow, we are holding RUTH, DRYS, ETFC, and RYL. We will be hoping for some good news out of Consumer Confidence and the Housing Market Index as well as strong earnings to help keep this rally going.


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The Afternoon Snack: Portugal Brings Us Down, Bulls Bring Us Up, Oxen Group Reloads

 
The market spent the day rebounding after an early drop on news that Portugal may be on the brink of its own European Union bailout. After a weak start to the day, things continued upwards led by tech as news from the CES conference started to price into the market, and investors started to buy up some companies that had become more undervalued in the recent weakness in the market. Additionally, the start of earnings season may have helped push the markets up throughout the day from lows as Alcoa kicks off Q4 earnings today.

The Dow finished down 37. The Nasdaq finished up 4.6. The S&P 500 finished down 1.75. Gold finished 5.2. Oil finished up 1.4.
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On the economics front, news was limited, but this week is a big week for data. Coming out this week, we have wholesale inventories, export/import information, the Treasury Budget, the Fed’s Beige Book, job claims, Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, Trade Balance, retail sales, industrial production, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and businessinventories. Yikes! That is a lot, and it is coupled with the start of a week full of earnings. Alcoa, JPMorgan, and Intel should be a nice barometer of what is to come in the industrial, financial, and tech side of things.

Company news was limited, but the anticipation of earnings is on the minds of everyone. Corporate deals started the week as DuPont bought a Danish food maker for $5.8B. Duke Energy Corp. bought out Progress Energy Inc. for $13B. More corporate dealings should be positive for the market as it is a sign that companies see demand and health returning to the economy. The big news is that Alcoa will report earnings tonight that are scheduled to be at 0.18 EPS. This is double over what the company did in Q3.

The Oxen Group performed well on the day. We were able to exit two positions in the green. We exited Gammon Gold (GRS) for a 1.4% gain at 7.88 after the company reported early guidance on Q4 at strong levels. We also exited a position in Advanced Semi (ASX) for a minute gain at 0.55% to help open up some cash to get involved with SuperValu (SVU).


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The Afternoon Snack: Fed Saves the Market, Big Day for Oxen Group

2011 continued to show strength as the market rebounded off midday lows to finish neutral. The major news on the day was that the Fed has announced they will continue $600B treasury bond buying program that is supposed to help jumpstart the economy by giving more money for the government to use for employment purposes. The market fell early as investors started to take profits on a number of overvalued equities, but the market rallied after the Fed minutes as investors were happy to hear that the Fed is continuing to pump money into the economy.

The Dow finished up 19. The Nasdaq finished down 10. The S&P 500 finished down 2. Gold finished down 43. Oil finished down 2.5.

On the economics front, there was positive news out from factory orders and auto sales. Factory orders rose in December to 0.7%, while consensus estimates were expected to be at -0.3%. Auto sales were on the upswing to finish out 2010, which is a positive sign for what may happen in 2011 as buyers continue to move back into big-ticket items.
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Company news was very limited before the first major round of earnings in 2011 and in a couple weeks. Ford and General Motors announced that they saw sales rose 15% and 6%, respectively. Grocery stores were downgrade targets on Tuesday as the companies appear slightly overvalued moving into 2011.

The Oxen Group performed very well on the day. We entered four positions on the day, and we were able to exit four positions. In the morning Oxen Report, we recommended a position in USAT at 1.31 that we were able to quicklyturn for a 2.3% gain to exit at 1.34. We were able to exit our Buy Pick from yesterday in Urban Outfitters (URBN) for a 2.09% as the stock rallied after a Monday downgrade. We got out of half of our Dec. 30 Macy’s position at 25.40 for a 0.80% gain as the stock was looking to move down. We also were able to exit SONC at 10.14 on average for 80% of the position, holding the rest into earnings.

Moving into tomorrow, we are holding positions in Macy’s (M), RUTH, Sonic (SONC), and TAM. We reentered Macy’s at 24.75 as


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The Afternoon Snack: Light Trading Can’t Stop Bulls, Facebook IPO?, and Oxen Group Unveils Longterm Portfolio

 

The markets continued higher today on thin trading as the S&P 500 is looking to have its best December in two decades. There was no tremendous news that moved the markets. Rather, thin trading tends to harken momentum that is hard to overcome, and the market has continued to register positive momentum. Investors have continued to see positive data throughout December, which has allowed them to believe that next year’s prospects should be strong. The dollar’s decline helped the markets, but its decline is most likely due to positive movement on stocks.

The Dow finished up 12. The Nasdaq finished up 4. The S&P 500 finished up 1. Gold finished up 8.

On the economics front, there was no major data still out. Tomorrow, the market will get a bevy of data, however, from the pending home sales to crude oil inventories to jobless claims to the Chicago PMI. All pieces of data should have a major influence on the market. It will be interesting to see if disappointing news will be viewed as a buying opportunity or the bad news will hurt the markets significantly with a lot of overvalued and toppy equities.

In other company news, Facebook may have to debut its first IPO after SEC investigates its private trading and the shadow market that surrounds it. BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) was up big today after news that the company may get a buyout bid from Leonard Green & Partners. Sears Holding (SHLD) announced that they will be launching an on-demand video service that they hope can rival Netflix. It sent shares up more than 6%.

The Oxen Group performed well on the day. We exited three positions (2 positive, 1 negative) and positioned ourselves into another position. We were able to make a quick 3.5% on our recommendation of Rightnow Tech (RNOW). After a large drop yesterday on a single trade, the stock was well undervalued. The company got an upgrade in addition to help their cause from Piper Jaffray. We were able to recommend entry at 21.99 and saw shares soar to 21.77 before exiting. We made another quick 3% with Bank of Ireland (IRE) as the stock went from 2.52 to 2.58 during the trading day per our recommendation. We lost 3%, however, on Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate ETF (SRS) as the ETF continued to fell. 

Additionally, The Oxen Group launched its brand new Longterm


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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw  “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...



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Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...



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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...



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Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.


Click for a larger image

I've ...



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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading portfolio

 

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts. 

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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