New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project.
New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project.
New Members Entry Point – If you’ve arrived on this page looking for the k1 Project and all the reference material on Phil’s strategy, follow this: Front Page of the K1 Project
Here’s an easy link to the front page for the k1 project, which gets buried in the archives thanks to the way WordPress (the software engine underneath PSW) manages articles
Probably the most important thing to think about when trading (who’s playing the space and at what times?). very good knowledge to have. I’ve said this in past posts many times buy I HIGHLY suggest everyone read this book: Mind over Markets (by James F. Dalton).
Not a holy grail or system trading, just a methodical approach to understanding the players in the market and when they’re in it. Even if you don’t use the CBOE Market Profile, you’ll learn a lot about who’s in the market when with this book.
As a useful add-on to the book, member Alfred Toy adds:
When Napoleon was asked which generals to take to war Napoleon answered "Give me the Lucky ones." – optiondragon
For the past 4 years I have been perfecting the Earnings 3 ways method. One of my specialties is event catalyst volatility plays. – optiondragon
One of my best friends Dad didn’t believe that I made $200,000 strangling GOOG earnings back in 2005 2nd Q earnings. I run into these people everday. I just shrug my shoulders and move on when they don’t take my ($1000)bet that i did. What are u gonna do? – optiondragon
The LTP strategy is the core of Phil’s approach. Though the minute-to-minute action through comments might lead you to think otherwise, the central elements of the LTP strategy are fundamental to any understanding of Phil’s approach:
I have come to doubt the veracity of Phil’s professed performance returns, as well as the usefulness of his strategy. Caveat Emptor – k1
"The will to win means nothing without the will to prepare." – Juma Ikangaa
Welcome friends to a journey I began this past summer, to understand how a trader and blogger who kept coming up in my Quicken news source (by way of SeekingAlpha) was consistently producing the kinds of returns I had been taught to believe could only be snake oil.
"Hedging is, in part, an admission that you may not know everything – that you may in fact, be wrong about a few things and are willing to pay to insure against that possibility." – Phil
Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card
by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff
Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.
August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.
Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.
But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”
Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...
Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.
The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.
"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.
He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...
The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...
Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...
This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).
We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.
Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.
To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here
February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.
Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011
 
Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(blogroll, archives,
more).
Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(