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Sabrient Risers – 3/7/2011
by Sabrient - March 7th, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 Risers |
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| Stock | Rating | Analysis | ||
| MIC | STRONGBUY | An increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make MIC a company to watch. | ||
| ETFC | STRONGBUY | The long term projected growth rate for E*TRADE is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly. | ||
| JCP | STRONGBUY | J.C. Penney has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation. | ||
| CHK | STRONGBUY | The long term projected growth rate for Chesapeake Energy is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly. | ||
| IPGP | STRONGBUY | Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from IPG Photonics Corp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving. | ||
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Sabrient Divers – 03/05/2011
by Sabrient - March 5th, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 Divers |
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| Stock | Rating | Analysis | ||
| ATPG | SELL | Recent earnings changes for ATP Oil & Gas are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
| AEE | SELL | Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
| AMT | STRONGSELL | A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects. | ||
| AGN | SELL | Degradation in recent earnings and declining long term growth prospects are pushing Allergan lower and lower in our stack. | ||
| CLX | STRONGSELL | Recent earnings changes for Clorox are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
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Sabrient Risers – 3/4/2011
by Sabrient - March 4th, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 Risers |
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| Stock | Rating | Analysis | ||
| MIC | STRONGBUY | An increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make MIC a company to watch. | ||
| ETFC | STRONGBUY | The long term projected growth rate for E*TRADE is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly. | ||
| CTCM | BUY | An increasingly attractive expected long term growth rate and a significantly higher projected valuation from just a few weeks ago make CTC Media a company to watch. | ||
| CHK | STRONGBUY | The long term projected growth rate for Chesapeake Energy is rising, and this is happenening at a time when historical earnings have already increased significantly. | ||
| IPGP | STRONGBUY | Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from IPG Photonics Corp, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving. | ||
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Sector Detector: Market Shifts into Neutral
by Sabrient - March 3rd, 2011 2:00 am
Courtesy of Scott Martindale, Senior Managing Director
This month marks the first time since July 1 that the first trading day of the month wasn’t an up day. That’s 8 months in a row of money pouring in on the first trading day. Furthermore, recall that July 1 marked a low for the SPY at 101.13 that ended a 2-month correction to the 13-month rally off the March 2009 V-bottom, and launched a new 8-month rally. Is the fun over now? Or is this just a speed bump – a needed shift into neutral for the market to test bullish support and reload for the next run?
Oil remains front and center. It finished at a two-year closing high today at $102.23, mostly due to deterioration in the situation in Libya and the threat of unrest continuing to spread throughout oil-producing regions of the world. High oil prices are making a noticeable impact on some sectors (especially Airlines), but a widespread belief (hope?) that things ultimately will smooth out seems to be keeping the markets from selling off hard.
Or maybe it’s Charlie Sheen’s maniacal rants that dominate the news and distract everyone from the cold hard global realities.
Or maybe it’s the latest economic reports. Tuesday’s Beige Book release showed that economic activity continues to improve across all 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Labor markets strengthened, inflation seems to be developing, manufacturing production improved, and commercial real estate is showing signs of improvement, although residential real estate activity remains weak. And then today, a stronger-than-expected ADP Employment Change was reported.
Or maybe it’s the Federal Reserve’s aggressive Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) buying of Treasuries to free up cash for investment in stocks.
Looking at the SPY chart, it seems to have shifted from pedal-to-the-metal into neutral. In fact, the pattern since mid-February is looking very much like it did from early to late November, when price fell from the upper Bollinger Band, down through the 20-day moving average to the 40-day, and then tried to recover before making another test of support at the 40-day and lower Bollinger Band. Like it did in November, RSI is bouncing along the neutral line, and MACD had a bearish crossover and is now looking for support. If things play out as they did before, SPY will find support and re-launch on its bullish trajectory. But as they say, historical performance is no…
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Sabrient Divers – 03/03/2011
by Sabrient - March 3rd, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 Divers |
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| Stock | Rating | Analysis | ||
| AEE | SELL | Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
| AMT | STRONGSELL | A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects. | ||
| DPM | STRONGSELL | Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for DPM, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well. | ||
| CLX | STRONGSELL | Recent earnings changes for Clorox are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
| AGN | SELL | Degradation in recent earnings and declining long term growth prospects are pushing Allergan lower and lower in our stack. | ||
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Sabrient Divers – 03/02/2011
by Sabrient - March 2nd, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 Divers |
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| Stock | Rating | Analysis | ||
| AEE | SELL | Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
| AMT | STRONGSELL | A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects. | ||
| DF | SELL | With projected value going down even more quickly than their recent historical earnings, Dean Foods is not looking good. | ||
| DPM | STRONGSELL | Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for DPM, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well. | ||
| AGN | SELL | Degradation in recent earnings and declining long term growth prospects are pushing Allergan lower and lower in our stack. | ||
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Sabrient Divers – 03/01/2011
by Sabrient - March 1st, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 Divers |
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| Stock | Rating | Analysis | ||
| AEE | SELL | Recent earnings changes for Ameren are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
| DPM | STRONGSELL | Projected long-term growth for DPM is going down, expected value is decreasing, and tough times are ahead. | ||
| AMT | STRONGSELL | A consensus is building that American Tower is showing weakening near term and long term prospects. | ||
| DF | SELL | Recent earnings changes for Dean Foods are troublesome, as is a sinking projected valuation. | ||
| XRAY | SELL | Analysts are lowering long-term growth expectations for DENTSPLY, and showing agreement about short-term earnings declines as well. | ||
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Sabrient Risers – 3/1/2011
by Sabrient - March 1st, 2011 12:00 am
Top 5 Risers |
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| Stock | Rating | Analysis | ||
| SFI | BUY | Many analysts are expecting higher than previously expected long term growth from iStar, and its near-term earnings outlook is also improving. | ||
| SD | STRONGBUY | The projected value for SandRidge Energy Inc is still rising quickly even though past earnings have already improved significantly. | ||
| SINA | BUY | An increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Sina a good prospect for high returns. | ||
| CENX | BUY | Projected value continues to rise for Century Aluminum while long term increases in earnings growth are also becoming more widely expected. | ||
| TRW | STRONGBUY | TRW has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation. | ||
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What the Market Wants: Economy Struggles To Recover As Middle East Rages
by Sabrient - February 28th, 2011 7:46 pm
Courtesy of David Brown, Chief Market Strategist
Things are looking up this week — if you limit your gaze to recent economic reports. Personal income was up significantly more than the market expected (+1.0% vs. 0.3%); the Chicago PMI came in better than expected, at 71.2 v s. 68.0; and although negative, pending home sales were not as negative as the market thought they would be. There was one number today that was worse than expected, and that was personal spending, up just +0.2% when +0.4% was generally expected.
Last week, in comparison, sharply rising food and oil prices raised inflation alerts for both consumers and economic growth. Granted, we had a very positive consumer sentiment indicator on Friday and a positive consumer confidence number earlier in the week, but remember that both reports were taken well before the most recent breakout of turbulence in oil-rich Libya and the subsequent spike in the price of oil to over $100 a barrel.
You need only to look at last week’s sector performance to get a feel for what’s going on. The only sector in positive territory was Energy, while the worst-performing sectors were those which are highly dependent on oil, such as Transportation and Basic Industries. The sectors least hurt by last week’s turmoil – Public Utilities, Health Care and Consumer Non-Durables – represent a flight to safety, as does the fact that gold and silver prices rose sharply.
Economic Growth Plodding Along. The fourth quarter GDP came in at 2.8% on Friday, versus 3.2% for the third quarter. This indicates the economy is continuing to recover, but more slowly than expected, and that is particularly disappointing in light of the massive influx of QE2 money. There are also hints that the Fed’s levels of accommodation are being stretched, and while I think it is unlikely that they will hike interest rates any time soon, their capacity for continued stimulation is definitely running thin, especially in light of the new GOP majority, budget-cutting Senate and a number of shortages and cutbacks by state and municipal governments.
All told, it is hard to believe that economic growth will do much better than slowly plod along, and that isn’t very good news for employment or for the housing market.
To be sure, money continues to flow out of the bond market ($1.8 billion in January, after the $10 billion in December), and…
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ETF Periscope: Oil Barrels Back Towards the Century Mark
by Sabrient - February 28th, 2011 6:29 am
Courtesy of Daniel Sckolnik, ETF Periscope
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” – Albert Einstein
The markets have snapped out of their recent spell of complacency with the sharp pop of a rubber band that has been stretched and released.
The coming week will likely reveal whether the word “robust” can be applied to the current Bull market, or if cracks in the uptrend will lead to a correction that seems on the overdue side of things.
With the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) spending a good portion of the week tumbling down towards the 12,000 level, it is clear that, at the very least, the current uptrend has lost some wind from its sails, and at the very worst, the markets are about to become more reactive to “real world” events than they have in the last several months.
Specifically, those events are centered on the geo-political upheaval that has occurred in the Middle East over the last month, with a level of uncertainty that has now arisen and has yet to be accurately reflected in either the markets or the mainstream media.
While the price of crude oil has certainly started to serve as a strong barometer for the region’s turbulent events, closing in on the $100 per barrel mark, that price may seem on the low side when and if it becomes clear who actually is in charge of the vast oil supplies within Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia.
Though the leading producer of the region, Saudi Arabia, has attempted to calm the markets this past week by promising to increase production to cover any shortfalls that the region may experience, the fact is they really don’t have the ability to sustain any serious disruption on a major basis.
The real problem, however, may be the sharks in the water, otherwise known as the “speculators.” Perception is, of course, almost everything in the markets and if prices begin to get jacked up by those playing the crude oil futures markets, as occurred during the run-up to $150 during ’08, then prices can spiral out of control, with lots of collateral damage to the rest of the financial markets.
The next few weeks will reveal a lot, as the direction of the turmoil in the Middle East unfolds.
So, with the markets manifesting a…
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