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Way Of The KaMi

Courtesy of williambanzai7

Today, like many of you, I spent a great deal of time looking at images of the tsunami. Images of the waves moving through the Japanese landscape in real time were totally mesmerizing. It was easy to marvel at the forces of nature unfolding in real time, shortly followed by the horrible realization that there were real people suffering and expiring in before our eyes.

The Japanese live under the constant threat of violent forces of nature. Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanos and typhoons. It is a constant worry stoically buried in the depths of their national psyche.

The origins of the Japanese Shinto faith trace back to spiritual reverence for the forces of nature or kami. Much has been written on the meaning of the term. The Kojiki Den is considered the consummate work on the subject and the following quote by it’s author Motoori Norinaga is said to capture the essence of "kami" better than any other:

[kami is] any thing or phenomenon that produces the emotions of fear and awe, with no distinction between good and evil.

What better way to describe today’s images, I thought of some traditional and modern Japanese icons denoting the tsunami phenomena and juxtaposed them with what I was looking at. I also thought of kami.

The following images are my way of capturing the moment.

I pray for the health and safety of all who are struggling through this monumental disaster and I offer my sincerest condolences to the families of those less fortunate.

WB7

TSu

 

TSU

 

Ts

 

TS TS

 

TS

 

Ts

 

Ts

 

Kami

Kami

 

Kami

 

Kami

 

kami

 

Kami

 





Kyodo Reports Radiation Eight Times Normal Near Fukushima Nuclear Plant, 1,000 Times Normal In Control Room

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Per Reuters, which cites Kyodo news agency, the radiation levels near the main gate at the Fukushima Nuclear Plant are already 8 times normal. This probably supersedes a prior report by Kyodo according to which radiation could already have been released at the plant. That’s pretty much a given the rather dramatic surge in ambient gamma waves. And Reuters has just released this unpleasant development: “Radiation levels in Fukushima Daiichi plant central control unit is 1,000 times normal, Kyodo says.”

From Kyodo:

The amount of radiation reached around 1,000 times the normal level Saturday in the control room of the No. 1 reactor of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said.

The discovery suggests radioactive steam could spread around the facility operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co.






According To Goldman, Tsunami Puts 2011/2012 Japanese Rice Crop At Risk, Sees Vicious Snapback In Crude Prices

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

A just released report by Goldman’s Jeffrey Currie attempts to quantify the impact of the Tsunami on the Japanese economy from a commodity standpoint. Currie summarizes his conclusions as follows: “Assuming that the broader power grid infrastructure has not been  permanently damaged, we believe today’s events are likely to put upward pressure on residual fuel oil and diesel cracks, LNG, UK natural gas and rice; downward pressure on naphtha cracks and Dubai spreads relative to other crude grades.” Yet the thing we found more interesting than energy related bottlenecks was the disclosure toward the end of the report discussing the threat to the Japanese rice harvest: “In addition to the damage to energy infrastructure from the earthquake, the tsunami also impacted rice producing regions in Japan. While Japanese rice inventories are large, this puts the 2011/12 crop production at risk and may in turn drive Japanese rice imports higher, posing upside risk to current prices.” Granted, Japan is not a big exporter of rice, but it is a top 10 consumer. Should the country’s consumption (which is estimated at around 9 million metric tons) need to be satisfied by a surge in imports, and with the price of rice already dependent on the margin on speculative money, this could be the catalyst that send the grain, which has plunged in price over the past month, finally break beyond any potential manipulative price suppression schemes.

In addition to rice observations, below are the key energy market view from Currie:

26% of nuclear generation capacity down

Although all ports in Japan are currently shut down, once operations resume, and assuming that the broader power grid infrastructure in the region has not been permanently damaged, we expect a substantial rise in demand for substitute fuels for power generation. Specifically, we expect LNG, residual fuel oil and diesel imports to rise to help compensate for the 12.5 GW (500 kbdoe) of nuclear capacity shut down. Importantly, such disruptions in nuclear facilities may last for years, as it takes time to repair, test and re-authorize commercial operations. Importantly, the downside pressure on crude prices is likely a near-term effect only. In the medium-tolonger term, once refineries are operational, but with nuclear generation likely still disrupted, the net effect is to the upside for crude prices.

20% of refining capacity down

The marginal


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Ron Paul To Hold Hearing On CPI Lies And Fed Inflation Creation; Jim Grant To Tesify

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

This will be fun:

Congressman Ron Paul, Chairman of the Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology subcommittee, announced that the subcommittee will hold a hearing to examine the relationship between monetary policy and rising prices (with a particular focus on food and energy prices).

 The hearing is scheduled for Thursday, March 17th at 10:00 AM, in room 2128 of the Rayburn House office building.

 

It is unconscionable that published government statistics mislead Americans regarding the true rate of price inflation, which is much higher than commonly-reported CPI numbers,” Paul stated. “It is also unconscionable that Federal Reserve Bank officials continue to deny the effects of their monetary expansion on consumer prices.  Inflation, properly understood, is a monetary phenomenon.  The price inflation Americans suffer today is largely the direct result of relentless monetary expansion by the Federal Reserve over the past decade.  Our witnesses will explore how current monetary policy, including QE2, directly impacts the standard of living of Americans in ways that are not reflected in official government data.”

 

Congressman Walter Jones, vice chairman of the subcommittee, stated, “The Fed has attempted to convince the public that its money printing campaign is necessary to stimulate America’s economic recovery.  Instead of recovery, the real effect of the Fed’s money printing has been monetization of America’s exploding fiscal deficits, devaluation of the dollar, and creation of inflation in asset prices across the board.  As a result, working people in places like Eastern North Carolina are being squeezed at the gas pump and the grocery store as they struggle to make ends meet in a world in which their salaries have no chance of keeping up with Mr. Bernanke’s printing presses.”

 

Scheduled to testify are:

 

Prof. Joseph Salerno, Chair of the Economics Graduate Program at Pace University

James Grant, Noted commentator and publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Lewis Lehrman, Author, investment banker a





Federal Magistrate Decision Renders Twitter Privacy Obsolete

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

As we reported two months ago, the DOJ had secretly subpoenaed the personal information of several “twitters” who may have had a relationship to Wikileaks. Among the people to discover they were the subject of a secret subpoena was Iceland Member of Parliament Birgitta Jonsdottir. Furthermore the only reason those being investigated even realized this was the case is because Twitter notified them, unlike other social networks which may have been also subpoenaed, yet have remained quiet so far. Twitter had said: “We’re not going to comment on specific requests, but, to help users protect their rights, it’s our policy to notify users about law enforcement and governmental requests for their information, unless we are prevented by law from doing so.” Alas, today AP reports that while this inititial request had been challenged by objects of the inquiry, “a federal magistrate ruled that prosecutors can demand the Twitter account information of certain users in their criminal probe into the disclosure of classified documents on WikiLeaks.” Simply said this means that virtually anybody’s electronic communication on Twitter, and most certainly elsewhere too, can be intercepted by the DOJ for whatever reason, without anyone having to be notified of this gross privacy breach. It makes one wonder just how many additional benefits is JPM getting from its 10% investment in Twitter?

From AP:

Three of the account holders targeted by the government had asked the judge to reverse an earlier order she issued requiring Twitter to turn over the information to prosecutors.

A federal law allows prosecutors to obtain certain electronic data without a search warrant. In this case, the Twitter users say the government is abusing the law in a way that harms constitutional protections for free speech and association.

Lawyers for the Twitter account holders – all of whom have some connection to WikiLeaks – have said they will appeal.

While emails sent from corporate locations have always had privacy disclaimers to them, even they would require a subpoena from the DOJ, at least in a normal world. however, in this bizarro world version, where those who dare to challenge the Dow 36,000 thesis will soon be charged with treason, we can all kiss our twitter (and all other) privacy goodbye.

Big teleprompted brother is always watching.





Guest Post: When Things Fall Apart

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

When Things Fall Apart   

Financialization and centrally planned speculative credit bubbles have undermined the real economy: that’s why things are falling apart.

There is no pleasure in “I told you so” when things fall apart. Many of us recognized the artifice and folly of the credit-housing bubble “Bull market” as early as 2004, but few cared to listen because they were deeply complicit in the Status Quo’s legerdemaine: their home was rising in value, their pension fund was being fattened, their sales were rising on the onrushing tide of abundant, cheap credit, their tax revenues were soaring, and their benefits/perquisites were notching higher with every tick up of the stock and housing markets.

Faith in a centrally planned economy operating under the flimsy guise of cartel-State “capitalism” was supreme, as were greed, self-absorption and an overweening sense of entitlement to consumerist “prosperity.”

Both corrupt political parties enthusiastically embraced the bubble-culture of fraud and speculative excess, for they too benefited from the illusory glow of “permanent economic growth” and the ever-richer contributions from the fiefdoms, cartels and Financial Elites who gained the most from the credit-based frenzy.

The “prosperity,” “growth” and “wealth” were all illusory, but the pain is real. Hardworking, dedicated, smart, experienced people are being laid off into an economy with few prospects. Young people are graduating from university into the same bleak atmosphere of a paper-thin facade of magical thinking and propaganda finally crumbling.

Things are falling apart because the economy has been undermined by financialization and the extreme concentrations of capital and State power. I think these charts tell the story rather well:

Here we see the Federal Reserve-engineered credit-based speculative financialization bubbles and busts reflected in the stock market. All that cheap credit sloshing around created asset bubbles which sucked in capital and borrowed funds seeking extraordinary returns. Then when the bubble inevitably popped, the players were left with the debt, which remained real, while their illusory wealth vanished.

Here is the dynamic: cheap abundant credit fuels malinvestments and speculation, the acme of financialization. Real production can’t match the enormous profits generated by financial leverage and legerdemaine, so real production atrophies as capital and talent migrate to financialization.

Financialization rewards concentrations of capital
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As Greece Embarks On The Road To Hades, Here Is How To Trade The European Implosion

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

While a crippled Europe continues to gladly enjoy being in the shadow of Fed-driven revolutions and natural disasters, its time in the sun is coming to an end. Soon everyone will realize that just today, 2 Year Greek bonds traded at all time wides of over 17%. That’s right – holders of Greek bonds for 2 years will be rewarded with a 17% gain if the country actually repays these at maturity. Alas, for those who are paying attention, this has a snowball’s chance in Hades of happening. And speaking of Hades, Knight Capital’s Alfredo Viegas has released a note explaining not only why Greece has just passed the Rubicon following the release of its disastrous budget deficit details earlier, but also advising those who care, how to be positioned to best profit from Greece’s descent into Hades, which will be promptly followed by the rest of the Eurozone. His advice: short Spanish and Italian cash bonds (this trade will work just as well using horrible, evil CDS which no politician still understands and therefore continue to be the scapegoat for everything).

Is that an insolvent country or are Greek bonds just happy to realize they are skrewed:

From Knight Capital’s Alfredo Viegas

GREECE: Budget #s & the road to HADES for the other

Greece just reported a very poor budget deficit of €1.0Bn over Jan/Feb of this year.  This represents a 9% increase over the same two months of last year. Even more troubling was the news that budgetary revenues fell 9.2% thanks in part to civic protests for paying tolls and taxes.  With spending actually up 3.3%, the road to austerity for Greece seems to be taking a detour.  Greece is scheduled to receive a fresh €15Bn tranche from the EFSF/IMF next week to help it meet over €10Bn in amortizations this month. Privatizations are still being lined up, so far €7Bn has been identified out of a possible €50Bn (yeah right)! Brussels/Berlin/Athens continue to debate the sticky points like raising the retirement age, imposing a debt ceiling and higher corporate tax rates.  Meanwhile, today in Brussels at the EU summit nothing much seems to be happening with inertia over the “core vs. periphery” pushing out many critical decisions to month-end.  Although much media/investor attention remains focused on the Greece/Ireland/Portugal troika of the troubled PIIGS club, we think too…
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Ignorant Non-Sequitur of the Day: China MediaExpress Holdings Edition

Courtesy of Stone Street Advisors

This article is from Stone Street Advisors

The most popular day on our site was when I tore apart a post from an aspiring “investor” named Glen Bradford, who clearly has very little – if any – knowledge of business history, wherein he listed several reasons he’s long China MediaExpress Holdings. I strongly suggest you go back and read that post, entitled “Fuzzy Logic, or: Those Who Fail to Learn From History…” where I showed how NOT to go about building an investment thesis.

Mr. Bradford does not seem to know what auditors actually do or how they go about doing it.  Nor is he apparently aware of the oodles and oodles of times auditors have not just failed to uncover/report fraud, but were actually complicit therein.  This week, he claims – in his apparently infinite experience and wisdom – that not only would Deloitte step down if they thought CCME was a fraud, but that Deloitte is THE best auditor out there, so clearly, if they sign-off on the co’s financials, there can’t possibly be any fraud.

This is a massive, ignorant, and lazy non-sequitur of impressive proportions, to the point that I’m tempted to put the preceding clause in all caps and bold font.

Deloitte was the auditor of record at Bear Stearns, where they’re accused of effectively “performing no audit at all,” at Adelphia during the Rigas scandal that drove the firm into bankruptcy, at Merrill Lynch during the Blodget/conflict of interest years, at a number of Energy companies who engaged in “round-trip trading” to boost volumes/revenue, and a number of other companies embroiled in accounting scandals.  The California Board of Accountancy also reports that Deloitte is responsible for more restatements than any other CPA firm (23% of total from 2003-2009)!

From what experience and/or personal knowledge does Bradford get his nonsensical views about auditors?  Serious question.

I have received tons of messages that can be summarized by the belief that auditors do not look for fraud and that all they do is make sure things line up in the reports. I can say that this is not true simply by being practical. If we didn’t have auditors to verify the claims that companies make, then companies could claim whatever they want to. The purpose


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Some Bad And Some Good News On That Radiation Leak

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

First the bad news:

  • It is coming. According to Japan’s trade minister a leak will likely take place as the pressure is released imminently by TEPCO.

The good news:

  • The radiation released will be small.

It is unclear if the same measurement methods as are used in the calculation of Core CPI will be applied in calculating leakage. As to whether this “small amount” of radiation is alpha, beta or gamma, those interested to find out will get an answer based on the amount of extra fingers grown over the next month.





 

Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw  “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...



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Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...



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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...



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Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.


Click for a larger image

I've ...



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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading portfolio

 

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts. 

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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