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Sleeplessness Causes Us To Make Poor Investments

This is fascinating, and the conclusions from this research are bad news for those of us who have trouble sleeping. – Ilene 

Courtesy of Washington’s Blog

I'm only sleeping, beatles, youtube video screenshotScientific American noted yesterday that a lack of sleep makes us take riskier gambles:

A team of Duke University researchers examined the brains of 29 healthy volunteers using functional MRI, which tracks changes in blood flow in the brain, while the subjects performed a variety of gambling tasks.

After a full night of sleep, participants behaved like most people tend to in the real world: guarding against financial loses and cautiously pursuing gains.

But when deprived of a night’s sleep (kept awake in the lab from 6 p.m. until 6 a.m.), the volunteers "moved from defending against losses to seeking increased gains," the researchers reported. This shift "suggests an unfounded rise in expectation for gain," a condition the team describes as "an optimism bias."

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Upon examining the fMRIs, the researchers noticed that when making financial decisions in the gambling games, sleep-deprived individuals had greater activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area of the brain associated with fear, risk and decision-making, compared with when they were well rested. The sleep-deprived group also showed a drop in activity in the anterior insula, a region implicated in emotion and addiction, relative to when they had slept.

These changes might be linked to the excess dopamine the sleep-deprived brain tends to fire off in an effort to help keep alert. This neurotransmitter, which is linked to pleasure and reward, might be at least partly to blame for sleep-deprived subjects’ increasing sense that they have better odds of winning big—and their lessening fear of losing.

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These effects could also extend to areas where the stakes are even higher, such as the trading floor or the hospital, where workers often perform their duties when they are less than well rested. "I think it’s critical that society as a whole grapple with the data generated about the detrimental effects of sleep deprivation," Michael Chee, a professor at Duke’s Neurobehavioral Disorders Program in Singapore and a co-author of the new study, said in the statement.

Interestingly, caffeine doesn’t help. As Scientific American notes:

Because these effects seem to run deeper than just apparent torpor, a shot of espresso—or even stronger stimulants—might not short-circuit the sleep-deprived brain’s tendency toward unwarranted optimism, Venkatraman added. "Countermeasures that combat


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The Coming Rout

Courtesy of Chris Martenson

There’s a scenario that could play out between May and September in which commodities (including my beloved silver) and the stock and bond markets could all sell off between 20% and 40%.  The trigger will be the cessation of QE II and a multi-month pause before QE III.

This is a reversal in my thinking from the outright inflationary ‘buy with both hands’ bent that I have held for the past two years.  Even though it’s quite a speculative analysis at this early stage, it is a possibility that we must consider. 

Important note: This is a short-term scenario that stems from my trading days, so if you are a long-term holder of a core position in gold and silver, as am I, nothing has changed in my extended outlook for these metals.  The fiscal and monetary path we are on has a very high likelihood of failure over the coming decade, and I see nothing that shakes that view.

But over the next 3-6 months, I have a few specific concerns.

It’s time to build on the idea I planted in the Insider article entitled Blame the Victim (February 28, 2011) where I speculated on the idea that the Fed might be forced to end its quantitative easing programs, almost certainly because of behind-the-scenes pressure.  

Here’s what I said:

How I read [the Fed's recent propaganda tour] is that the Fed is taking some heat for its inflationary policies, mainly behind closed doors, and it is trying to do what it can — with words — to soothe the situation. Perhaps China is making noises, or perhaps Brazil’s finance minister is making the phone lines feeding the Eccles building smoke ominously, or perhaps it is internal pressure coming from politicians with restless voters. Or all three.

The big risk here is that the Fed will be forced by this rising pressure to discontinue the QE program in June at the normal ending of the QE II efforts. Couple that with a possible federal showdown over the debt ceiling right at the same time, and you have the makings for a massive fireworks display, possibly involving derivative mortars bursting in air.

At the time, I speculated that all of the Fed’s pronouncements about inflation being almost nonexistent were actually signs that the Fed was taking some behind-the-scenes heat for the inflation its policies was creating. …
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Consumer Metrics Institute: In Advance of Friday’s Retail Sales

Courtesy of Doug Short

With the February Advance Retail Sales report coming out on Friday, I realized that a few weeks have passed since I’ve updated the analysis of personal consumption from the Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI). I’ll start with an overlay since 2010 of the CMI Weighted Composite and Growth Indexes.

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Background

For those unfamiliar with these data series, here is a link to the Institute’s website. Their page of frequently asked questions is an excellent introduction to the service. See also the Institute’s February 7 commentary, Measuring the Impact of "Strategic Defaults" and Mortgage Delinquencies on Consumer Spending.

The charts below focus on the ‘Trailing Quarter’ Growth Index, which is computed as a 91-day moving average for the year-over-year growth/contraction of the Weighted Composite Index, an index that tracks near real-time consumer behavior in a wide range of consumption categories. The Growth Index is a calculated metric that smooths the volatility and gives a better sense of expansions and contractions in consumption.

 

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The 91-day period is useful for comparison with key quarterly metrics such as GDP. Since the consumer accounts for over two-thirds of the US economy, one would expect that a well-crafted index of consumer behavior would serve as a leading indicator. As the chart suggests, during the five-year history of the index, it has generally lived up to that expectation. Actually, the chart understates the degree to which the Growth Index leads GDP. Why? Because the advance estimates for GDP are released a month after the end of the quarter in question, so the Growth Index lead time has been substantial. 

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Has the Growth Index also served as a leading indicator of the stock market? The next chart is an overlay of the index and the S&P 500. The Growth Index clearly peaked before the market in 2007 and bottomed in late August of 2008, over six months before the market low in March 2009.


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Stock World Weekly

Here’s the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome… share your thoughts. 

Download Newsletter 3/6/11

Robbed by Speculators

Stock World Weekly archives here >





Are Booming Economies Good for the Markets?

Courtesy of John Mauldin at Investors Insights 

People only accept change in necessity and see necessity only in crisis.

— Jean Monnet

The economy is doing better, and we will survey some of the highlights. But does this mean the stock market is headed higher? A chart from Louis Gave got me to thinking, and I shot off a few thoughts and questions to Ed Easterling and Vitaliy Katsenelson. What ensued was a lively “battle” of charts and thoughts and more questions, so this week I let you look over my shoulder at our conversation. This letter will print longer than normal, as there are a lot of charts. I think you will find it very thought-provoking, if only a little cautionary. And we start with a look at a survey about what Americans think of the current fiscal deficit and the ways to remedy it.

At the end of the letter I give you a link to a speech by my friend Pat Cox, which is one of the best speeches and PowerPoints I have seen in a long time. It will only remain up for another ten days, per agreement with his publisher, so you really do want to find some time to listen. And I remind you about my conference in La Jolla April 28-30, with its gonzo all-star lineup, which I modestly think makes it the best investment conference anywhere. It is rapidly filling up. Don’t procrastinate. And I have some TV and radio times for next week as well. Now, let’s jump in to today’s letter.

The Delusion of Crowds and the Endgame

My good friend Dennis Gartman pointed me to a recent survey of “likely voters” done by the Tarrance Group. The results were disturbing to me, and show how truly ill-informed the American electorate is. This does not bode well. You can see the survey at http://www.politico.com/static/PPM191_poll.html , but let me highlight a few key points.

“There are widespread misperceptions about the state of the federal budget. A majority of voters incorrectly believes the federal government spends more on defense/foreign aid than it does on Medicare and Social Security (63%). Also, a similar majority (60%) incorrectly believes problems with the federal budget can be fixed by just eliminating waste, fraud and abuse. Voters do not casually agree with these untruths…
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Current Market Snapshot

Courtesy of Doug Short

The S&P 500 closed the day up 0.16%. The index is 93.4% above the March 9 2009 closing low, which puts it 16.4% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

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For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

For a bit of international flavor, here’s a chart series that includes an overlay of the S&P 500, the Dow Crash of 1929 and Great Depression, and the so-called L-shaped "recovery" of the Nikkei 225. I update these weekly.

These charts are not intended as a forecast but rather as a way to study the current market in relation to historic market cycles.





The Oxen Group’s Longterm Ratings Portfolio – February Recap

At the end of December, The Oxen Group launched our Longterm Ratings Portfolio that revolves around our Longterm Ratings and financial analysis of companies on five-year projections. In today’s update on our Longterm Ratings Portfolio and Longterm Ratings, we will be covering our performance so far, our changes in guidance and price targets in February, our current holdings, and some attractive positions that we believe look good in March and 2011.

Performance

Since our Longterm Ratings Portfolio’s inception at the end of December, in two months, we have increased the portfolio 7%. At the end of February, we had recommended holdings in fifteen companies and had exited parts of five holdings and another full position. Our realized exits were half of our position in Big Lots (BIG) for nearly 26%, 1/3 of our position in Dean Foods (DF) at 17.19%, 1/3 of our position in First Solar (FSLR) a 24%, our full position in a Short Sale in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) at -32%, 2/3 of our position in SunPower (SPWRA) for nearly 21%, and 1/3 of our position in Trina Solar (TSL) for nearly 21%.

Holdings we recommended in February to our members:

- General Motors (GM) – We have a Price Target at $52 for the company and believe that GM is a great value right now. The company has a lot of undervaluation currently as they have a lot of sales potential moving forward and have not priced in many gains moving forward. We believe with only 3-4% growth in operating income moving forward the company has significant upside. Oil prices rising does hurt margins, but the company has moved into some important smaller markets. They have gotten very positive reviews on automobiles, and that appears to be translating into a rise in sales.

- Changyou (CYOU) – The company, a Chinese online internet video game producer, looks to have a lot of upside moving forward after its 2010 IPO. The company has the most popular online video game in China, and they are introducing a new line of games in 2011 that should continue to help the company grow its market share. Additionally, the company should benefit from the growing Chinese internet market that should quadruple in the next five years as internet comes to more areas in China. We have a price target of
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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw  “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...



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Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...



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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...



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Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.


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I've ...



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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading portfolio

 

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts. 

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

more from SWW

Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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