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Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.

- Ocelli7

Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

- Magret

Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you! I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure. I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options. You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

- Redfern1

Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

- Neverworkagain

Hey Phil - writing to thank you! First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable! I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.

- Bcfla

Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!

- JRW III

thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

- Kwan

Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane! Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.

- Seeking Truth

Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.

- RMM

I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value. Is it time to roll these to the March 37.50s, or should I wait this spike out?

- Bill Hoffman

Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...

- Becker

Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )

- Iflantheman & Gel1

Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

- Kinkistyle

Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here

- Mopar

I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…

- Kwan

I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

- Zucko

Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!

- DCalrk41

Phil - I'm with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P/L improved ( and I'm sure that it will be even better), but I found that the worst thing in trader's carrier is a LONELINESS. Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years. THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS

- Tchayipov

Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

- Greg

I have been trading for quite a few years and in good years made about 25%. After joining PSW, I followed closely the PSW strategy and my trading profit for this year is close to 70% to date. For fun, I like to mix in a few "Hail Mary" plays that really worked out well, but overall the simpler Buy/Write strategy, as presented by Phil so often, created the majority of the profit.

- Gel1

I would like to thank Phil and PSW crew for the insight and assistance (even the liberals). In December I initiated long stock positions buying stock, writing calls and puts in AAPL, WFR and CHK (scaling in and out). Over the last week I have been trimming back my positions selling stock and taking out my callers and putters. I am now back to my initial 25% position that I started with in December. However this time, my cost basis on shares AAPL, WFR, and CHK is $0! With money to spare from those positions.

- Texasmotion

Looking over your main themes last week, the "China may fall first" and "if you missed it previously, Thurs am gives you a second chance to short" were absolutely on target. I had to rely on stop-losses because of my schedule but just those two calls could have been worth a small fortune. Keep it up and I look forward to your new portfolio.

- Ocelli

Have been a member for about 6 months or there abouts. Signed up for a quarter at first and then for a year. To me, and it's only my opinion, it's an investment and I have made the membership fees back many times over on the strategy advice. Since joining and implementing the strategy of buy/writes and hedges I have cut my portfolio losses for the year and have a really good chance of going positive this year. If I would have continued down the road I was on, I would still have been fumbling around without a strategy and completely inept in what I was doing. I feel now the strategy is working and I am far more comfortable with the risks I am taking. I still have a lot to learn but I feel the fees have been one of the best investments I have made. The returns have been fantastic. Still have problems with the politics but hey nobody is perfect

- DKGuy

Phil, Passed a milestone today since joining 2 months ago. 25% of my account is in buy/writes, bull call spreads and disaster hedges. A majority of the trades were taken directly from your ideas or someone else`s contributions. Some were daytrades that became spreads. That part of my account is up 30% as of today. I don`t worry about it, or mess with it much, did a few rolls etc. Rest of the account is there to day trade, cover the writes and take advantage of opportunities. Thanks to everyone who contributes here, what a sweet way to trade, so many opportunities.

- Ben1Be

Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

- Humvee

Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

- Josiah

Phil… My portfolio, in the past few months, has acheived a high degree of stabilization. I've noticed that on up days, down days, even days, it doesn't matter, my portfolio rarely varies more than 2%. And over the long haul it just slowly increases in value. I attribute this not to investment choices, but to style. Thanks to you and others on this site I'm paying close attention to position size, delta neutrality, downside protection, and concentrating on selling premium rather than buying it. I've developed increasing patience, not having to trade daily, or even weekly. I'm concentrating on the finer points of trading, letting the profits come to me, rather than the other way around. I appreciate the help everyone here has given in getting me focused on this principle. I'm pumped!…in a calm sort of way.

- Iflantheman

The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!

- Gel1

I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

- David

Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

- Where

Archive for the ‘Portfolio Moves’ Category

$100K Hedged Portfolio Update

by Phil - May 6th, 2009 4:48 am

Well, there was no reason to adjust the portfolio this weekend but now I’m a little concerned (as I went short-term bearish yesterday morning) and it’s a good time to review our positions.

Monday gave us a lot if cushion but that doesn’t mean we have to squander it. Our last review was on the 25th and we had made adjustments on the 21st in member chat, triggering the plays we had decided to wait for the previous weekend. Notice we haven’t really had a down day since so there has been no reason to adjust what has essentially been a bullish set. Yesterday, in comments, I called for covering our UNG play but that’s the only move we’ve had to make in 2 weeks. Sadly, vacation time is over so let’s look over our positions and see where action will be required:

Our original positions were:

500 UYG at $3.48, selling 5 May $3 calls for .72 and 5 May $3 puts for .28, net $2.48/2.74
- UYG now $3.91, May put and call combo now $1.05 = net $2.86 ($190 profit on $1,240 = 15.3%)
  - We are fine being called away on this position
Selling 2 FAS $7.50 puts for .45 naked
- FAS closed at $9.40 so 100% profit of $90
500 C at $3.04, selling May $3 puts and calls for $1.11, net $1.93/2.47
- C now $3.31, We took out the callers for .30 on 4/21 and the May $3 puts are .20 = net $3.11 ($590 profit on $965 = 61.1%)
  - We should close this position, it is above our profit expectations
Selling 2 IYF May $36 puts for $2 naked
- IYF closed at $41.80, May $36 puts $.35 ($330 profit on $400 =82%)
  - Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
4/21 Sold 2 IYF May $34 puts for $2.10 naked
- IYF closed at $41.80, May $34 puts $.20 ($380 profit on $420 =90%)
  - Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
Selling 2 JPM May $29 puts for $1.95 naked
- JPM closed at $34.77, May $29 puts $.23 ($344 profit on $390 = 88%)
  - Because of the stress tests, I would rather close these out
4/21 Sold 2 JPM $28 puts for $2

…

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PSW Investment Club – July Update

by Phil - July 20th, 2008 9:02 am

June was not a good month.

We were under covered on the way down, got more conservative at the bottom and got blown out this week as our callers went deep in the money.

All of that is manageable but the worst trade of the month came on Friday as Google went down much further than expected and wiped our out callers as well as most of our long position. I decided to play GOOG for the bounce, figuring we’d work into a bear call spread if it kept going down, most of these moves were detailed in Friday’s chat but essentially I built up a spread where I sold the $470s against higher calls and played for the bounce. By 12:19 I had sold 100 $470 calls for about $160,000 and Google was at about $483, the $480s, $490s and $500s were losing money too so the move was, as GOOG bottomed out, to roll the caller to the $460 with a tight stop (in case we went further down) but with tight stops so we could take advantage of the rebound.

That left us with a spread of 300 sold $460s against a similar amount of $480s and $490s and $500s. Google did indeed bounce just after I did the roll and I went to buy them back but OXPS wouldn’t let me! The reason was the computer didn’t count the fact that we were releasing $20 in margin each time we bought back a caller so it wouldn’t put the trade in. That left us in a very dangerous spread with GOOG coming back as the $460s were going to out gain out higher calls by a wide margin. I called support at OXPS but while I was waiting for them GOOG was going up fast on us and it was getting prohibitive to take out the caller so I decided to cover by rolling the $480s down to the $470s.

By the time I had explained the whole thing for the second time to a supervisor on the phone (who said "Oh sure, you should have been able to make that trade"), it was after 2 and our premiums were crushed so all I could do was roll the trade into an Aug $470/Aug $480 BULL call spread where our caller now holds the $300,000 in premium. Our realized loss on this trade was $225K, had…

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Thursday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 29th, 2007 5:33 pm

November 29th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink edit copy

SU – I’m going to DD at $2.50 for a $2.95 basis and get 1/2 back out there and then be patient. XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 9:42 am | Permalink edit copy

Still plenty of buyers out there, this is nothing I want to short into right now but BIDU is looking like a fantastic short up here if GOOG breaks down.

November 29th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink edit copy

SPWR, FSLR going vertical! Also going to be good shorts when oil calms down but for now they are rallying the sector.

SHLD broke below $100, I’ll be buying more when it settles down but this is now a long-term play.

November 29th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink edit copy

Weak stocks that worry me: DELL, YRCW, NYX, LEH, AXP (very nasty turn), TGT, BSC, MER, NKE, HD (how can it keep going down?)…

I like shorting MA off AXP’s move MA $190 puts at $6.25, stop at $5.50, going for $9+ XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 10:05 am | Permalink edit copy

AAPL – any opportunity to do a double roll of your call and your caller up $5 for $1 out of pocket is worth taking. For example, I have the $175 calls, now $10.22 and I sold the $165 calls, now $17.57 and I’m going to roll my caller to the $175s for $7.35 out of my pocket and I will roll myself to the $185s at $4.78 collecting $5.44. This costs me $2 but moves my max collection all the way up to $175 (of course this also means I don’t expect Apple to hold $180). XXX all portfolios!

New home sales much better than expected but not a real number but it should goose the markets until people look at the internals. Supply is still up and sale prices are down but expect a very nice buider rally off the headline and let’s keep an eye on the financials to see if anyone is buying this.

November 29th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink edit copy

Oh sorry, I forgot to mention take the money and run on the GOOG $710s in the $25KP, we still have the $730s but I don’t want to leave them both up.
XXX

November 29th, 2007 at 10:40 am | Permalink edit copy

PFE…

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Monday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 17th, 2007 11:25 pm

December 17th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink edit copy

Gloomy – I don’t think there will be a bounce until after the new year at best so yes, rolling down (if cheap) and selling Jan callers (who will lose 1/2 their premium by Jan 2, is a good plan.

LDK – if you are in that butterfly it’s best to take out the caller now and sell yours on mo at the top, the put side will take care of itself. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink edit copy

AAPL is just amazing!

Financials geting killed but not C – possible bottom for them. Tech actually doing pretty well on the whole with the usual suspects finding buyers. If Apple and Goog fail then it’s time to short the Nas.

Oil just broke below $90!!

December 17th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink edit copy

LDK – that was a quick turn! Too quick for me to move so I’m stuck at the moment and trying to roll myself ($70s) to the Jan $75s, then I will roll the caller up to the $70s to get some premium and then roll him to Jan ??? at the week’s end. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit copy

TSO going nuts! Citi is nuts but we’re fine with out Jan $50s and I wouldn’t roll the caller and I won’t pay him .25!

CAT with a gap down.

DNDN giving it all back, we’ll watch them.

HOT at 52-week low, not a good economy sign.

SU heading the wrong way, banking on those rebels over the actual NYMEX action. TBoon owns SU so you can guess who’s paying MENDs bills…

NEM – you should aways roll down if you can get it cheap (and you still believe in your position) it never hurts you if you can do a 35% roll, which would be about $1 on $2.50 and dollar $1.70 on $5 and $3.50 on $10. I wouldn’t be too quick to sell another caller down here as I think this is a great bottom. In fact, lets take a shot on the Mar $47.50s at $4.10 as a holiday crisis insurance play. XXX

December 17th, 2007 at 10:18 am | Permalink edit copy

MA got slapped by the EU on their fees, this is the story we’ve been following all summer and…

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Friday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 14th, 2007 11:28 pm

December 14th, 2007 at 9:39 am | Permalink edit copy

GM $26!

RTP off a cliff, AGAIN!

KO getting bought, CSCO doing well, VLO getting action, XOM holding up, FCEL still going..

POT getting smoked, IBM not good, DRYS a mess, SBUX NEW LOWS…

APPL is the sign that we’re going to hell, although the Dow down 113 is a hint too! Watch 13,400 of course and 1,475 and 2,650 (already gone) to see which way we’re going.

YHOO may hold $24, that will be very telling if they do in this weather.

December 14th, 2007 at 9:41 am | Permalink edit copy

Someone big is buying down here!

Take out Apple callers, I’m willing to stick my neck out on those! XXX

December 14th, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink edit copy

BUD – sell only executed in one for some reason. Oh well… I still like them as a superbowl play.

We might get that silly oil rally to short into!

December 14th, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink edit copy

DNDN moving like they mean it now!

LOL Kahn, good trade!

FWLT is acting like a lost sheep again but I barely got out even last time and I’m back on the wagon with them.

C – patience. We will buy them on the way up and sell to cover at the top of the channel. If they break $31 they are good to go to near $32 but there are dividend cut worries and we have to wait for all the income dependent investors to clear out.

December 14th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit copy

Dollar at 77.25, that’s a squeeze zone for bears!

DELL coming back from the dead. We held up nicely there and now the buying is spreading. We’re being led by energy so let’s watch them for a reversal but let’s also stop out of our callers in accounts where we can day-trade back into them. XXX

December 14th, 2007 at 10:14 am | Permalink edit copy

RTP Apr $420 puts at $47.50, selling the $420 puts for $14.20 ($13 premium) and then rolling to Jan $410 puts ($23.50 premium). If the first part wasn’t so expensive I’d put it in the small portfolios but XXX

December 14th, 2007 at 10:19 am | Permalink edit copy

OK, I think I see a pattern. Someone is buying up stocks they think…

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Thursday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 13th, 2007 11:35 pm

December 13th, 2007 at 9:35 am | Permalink edit copy

Things look pretty good so far but I’m not quite ready to buy just yet.

December 13th, 2007 at 9:56 am | Permalink edit copy

XMSR and other adjustments – yes but let’s give the markets some time to find a footing because we don’t want to do multiple moves. Right at the bell yesterday I laid out a move for XMSR that is still valid, that’s the adjustment I want to make as $15 seems much less likely.

FSLR – This stock is officially a joke. It’s like RIMM was and still is and PLAY was last year – just a rumor driven trading vehicle that is manipulated whichever way the retail investors aren’t playing it.

Exchange leaps are valid, we did the RUT last week and we can look for others. A long FXI put may be a good idea right now but I sure wouldn’t sell against it just yet.

JOSB – nice call, take the money and run!

December 13th, 2007 at 10:07 am | Permalink edit copy

Well this confirms that BA seems be done going down here. CAT is doing well too and MCD so it’s a flight to safety stocks but clearly that doesn’t include AXP today as they are down 3%.

Selling is picking up and I do expect 13,300 to hold, which would be good if we test it. Brokers off 2% and energy slowly but surely slipping.

Airlines would be a good buy if oil goes lower.

CELG getting hammered.

MSFT doing well as they do whenever Rein is watching!

Nat gas inventories today but if they don’t get a 130+ BCF draw they will cause a bigger sell-off across the energy sector.

I’m so glad we took out that XMSR caller, if they get back to $15 we have no reason to change the play.

NYSE down 109, Dow down 57, whichever one is catching up to the other is probably the market direction for the day. We are probably going to take a run at even since that was a critical point yesterday but if we fail that things could be sad in the afternoon.

December 13th, 2007 at 10:22 am | Permalink edit copy

COST – absolutely a buy. There was nothing wrong with their numbers other than a slight miss on the top line but they…

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Wednesday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 12th, 2007 7:45 pm

December 12th, 2007 at 9:31 am | Permalink edit copy

I’m not doing anything in general – sometimes you have to take a hit, take a breath and then come up with a rational course of action. Let’s see what levels we get to before buying into this. I’m not sure how much this really helps anything other than giving the bulls an excuse to rally. The CB’s have been giving money out like candy anyway, this is just more of the same but we’re not going to fight the tape.

December 12th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink edit copy

LTP – I’d wait a bit for a real dip. 13,700 is so close to the top of the year’s trading range that you are much more likely to be overpaying than underpaying.

I’m tempted to short here actually but I’ll just be happy if this lunacy calms down here. I’m really getting fed up but S&P 1,505 is nothing to rally about and all I see is a ton of blocks being sold to retail investors who think $40Bn tossed out by the CBs is going to solve something. If they Dow breaks back below 13,600, we can probably short anything we wished we shorted yesterday, like XOM, which is now up over yesterday’s high and very close to it’s 10/29 high of $93.61 (spike to $94.27). At that point, out of prinicpal, I will have to bet the farm on XOM going down!

If you are long, I would suggest exiting with the big boys and just being happy you got out of yesterday’s mess with little damage. Let’s wait for a real breakout before we start “bargain hunting.” If you are short, I would roll up to Jan puts but you have to assume Dec is dead as we only have 8 sessions left.

December 12th, 2007 at 10:09 am | Permalink edit copy

DIA Dec puts – I’m only in Jans but I’m not covering.

NEM – after yesterday you have to ask? Yes, cover! AMGN – yes cover! This Fed thing is just more smoke an mirrors, likely capitulation to Paulson’s pals who got caught with their pants down yesterday and need someone to sell to. Remmbemr in yesterday’s comments I noted that there were NO buyers, that could have been catastrophic if it continued today thus the BS move followed by a hard-core…

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Tuesday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 11th, 2007 10:35 pm

December 11th, 2007 at 9:46 am | Permalink edit copy

CELG – well that didn’t last long but I’m not sure I’d blame them as there are a lot of things selling off harshly.

OIH is starting to be a tempting short but don’t forget we could get a 300-point run a 2:16.

SNDK – good second chance to pick them up at yesterday’s open. I still like them.

Check out RTP – Ka Ching!

Parchesia – you are right but we are facing a global credit crisis and housing correction that will suck Trillions out of the economy if not handled very gingerly. Not even great companies are spared when it really hits the fan but, if you like to stay in no matter what, then that’s the way to go.

$25KP – Selling the T $40s for .85, selling more for .85 against Jan $40s at $1.44 XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 9:47 am | Permalink edit copy

$25KP – oops, rolling T $37.50 caller up to $40s at .85. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 9:54 am | Permalink edit copy

CAT still strong, IBM looking good, MA is amazing, I’ll be thinking about that one now. Actually the sellers look done already.

WFR coming on strong at new ATH, FCEL was a great pick, POT ATH, horsemen all rolling now, RIMM is a good catch with the Jan $105s at $9.50 being worth a risk down to $8.50 as we can always sell the Dec $103s for $6. XXX

December 11th, 2007 at 10:04 am | Permalink edit copy

GOOG and GS big concern, you don’t want AAPL to confirm that GOAX turn down. SU making an attractive put at $103.88 so if you don’t mind rolling 2 or 3 times the Mar $110 puts at $11 are a good way to go. XXX

The potential payoff on the QID July $35s at $5.80 is great as they are $2 from being at 1/2 of where they were in ‘06 and $15 below where they were in Aug. That makes them a great headge on positive Nasdaq plays.

THQI still going up!

CAKE looking shakey but we’re covered.

TXN – I hope you guys sold into that!

BA – last chance to buy I think…

December 11th, 2007 at 10:16 am | Permalink edit copy

WM holding up well.

CSCO happy about TXN’s news.

MA – I…

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Monday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 10th, 2007 6:52 pm

December 10th, 2007 at 9:06 am | Permalink edit copy

AMGN – if it’s cheap but I’m not goign to sell the $50s unless it breaks below it. They had a good study reult over the weekend so I’m not sure what this is about. Obviously set a stop on the caller in case this is just silly.

December 10th, 2007 at 9:37 am | Permalink edit copy

UBS – I guess the assumption is that if there’s a 10% buyer then this must be the bottom. Undisclosed or not, that’s 10% of the company getting “snapped up” although it’s being snapped at a 2-year low about 30% off it’s high so, just like C – I’d be willing to risk that myself at these levels.

Mixed trading at the open. GS still weak so let’s watch them, AAPL and GOOG for directional indication. The dollar is fading already and oil is up as they shut the ship channel yet again.

RTP – it’s high risk but you want to buy your long end here and wait for a pullback to sell a short. The $480 puts are an insane $26.25 and the Apr $470 puts are just $47.20 so that’s the way to go at the moment.

December 10th, 2007 at 9:49 am | Permalink edit copy

Gathering strength now, things could start looking good if we can stay positive on our watch list! Not sure what it will lead to tomorrow but I’m covering my index puts for now in case this builds into another big run.

Commodities leading the way so I don’t love it but hopefully oil will be rejected at $90 and calm that sector down. Interesting TSO and VLO weak against the group. FWLT of all things, not moving.

December 10th, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink edit copy

THQI – even better going than TTWO! 8-)

Pending home sales rose 0.6% for the month, down 18.4% for the year this is roughly in-line but a relief. Very rosey forecast from NAR, says home prices will drop just 3% next year but it’s the BS people want to hear…

MBIA gets new capital, also helping.

DRYS on the move $95s for $4.70 XXX

December 10th, 2007 at 10:21 am | Permalink edit copy

BA $90s at $3.60 worth a gamble. XXX

ISRG – Best to roll him up to the $350…

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Friday Portfolio Moves

by Phil - December 7th, 2007 6:11 pm

December 7th, 2007 at 9:47 am | Permalink edit copy

DUG – I’m dumbfounded that it’s this low. I’ve been considering it but it’s another thinly traded issue. it’s an ultra-short that leverages the downside of XOM, CVX, COP, SLB, OXY, MRO, VLO, DVN, HAL, RIG and others but the top 10 are 62% with XOM, CVX and COP making up 43% of the holdings. I like them because you don’t have to go short, you can pick up the July $38s for $7.20 and sell the Dec $40s for $2 or better, that’s a pretty good spread with the stock at $38.80 and you can pick up another $1 by rolling down to the $39s if it goes the wrong way on you. With those kind of premiums and 7 months to sell, I really like the idea, epecially if they give up another $1.

GS – you are so screwed if that goes the wrong way! What are you people thinking with these vertical spreads? Roll yourself down to 3 $195s if you want to stay vertical, that way he pays the premium and you can roll him down $10 more if GS keeps going down. I would personally go with 3 Jul $220s and then you can roll yourself and the caller down if it drops as it only costs you $5 to roll down $10, about the same as your caller would pay and, rather than selling him once and praying your price holds, you can make 6 more $10 sales against your $30 position.

December 7th, 2007 at 9:51 am | Permalink edit copy

AMGN – Now what? Yet another caller I have to send flowers too! For the $10KP, let’s spend $1.40 to roll to the Apr $52.50s and offer to buy out our caller for .50 and we will sell Dec $52.50s IF IF IF we break below $53 (and not for 30 seconds!).

FWLT at ATH!

December 7th, 2007 at 10:03 am | Permalink edit copy

IMAX – damn I forgot about them, I used to play them all the time, they are worth $9 easy. Nothing very attractive now other than the Jun $7.50s at $1.25 and selling the $7.50s at some point, now .25 XXX

December 7th, 2007 at 10:57 am | Permalink edit copy

MA – just because they weren’t directly downgraded they are going up? We’re going to…

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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

September 22nd, 2011 5:36 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...

Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

May 5th, 2011 5:10 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...

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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

March 12th, 2011 9:41 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...

Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

March 12th, 2011 9:35 am

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.

Click for a larger image

I've ...

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

March 12th, 2011 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm

Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

Swing trading portfolio

One trade portfolio

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Stock World Weekly

March 6th, 2011 8:22 am

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.

Download Newsletter 3/6/11

Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

March 1st, 2011 9:42 am

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;nbsp;

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...

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