Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

Daily Stock and Options Tips & Updates; Get Our Daily Newsletter Here

By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!

- Microflux

On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Roaster

Phil - FAS - I dont know whether to be happier I averaged down and sold calls or that I got myself out of FAZ the other day…thanks for that help

- BCFla

Hi Mr. Phill, I am a Venezuelan lady tormented by our politicall situation, who use to be an emerging market trader, and many other executive positins in the finance "arena" and now is trying to built a new concept and service for asset management for clients on my own, I am in the trial and learning process at the moment, I also invest for some friends and myself. I want to congratulate you , because reading you fill my days with a touch of irony (besides ,of course the spectacular market insight) that happens to give me energy, its a joy the remarks and comments even the pictures used, sometimes I just read it for the fun, I completily agree with your thouhts, though we belong to totally different cultures and enviorements and certanly realities Your readings is like a little hand helping me out to be in the market and fight for my devastated country where every single day we looe inches and yards of liberty. You shoul try to writte a book!

- Mindeyes

Phil - I celebrate today, having reached my goal for the year, trading in sync with your education and guidance, of 1 million in profit. I learned a lot, achieved much, and am profoundly grateful. To be honest, when I set the goal I thought it was daunting, as I have for many years been an investor in equities but did very little with options. Learning and doing has for me been a blast! I reached my goal by following Phil's strategies - lots of Buy/Writes, covered calls on equities , naked put entries for income production. I did it with 2.5 mil and kept 600,000 in cash in case I got in trouble. I concentrated on stocks (many of my own choosing) that had decent dividends and wrote front month calls against (OTM) which has worked well in this market run. 25% of my gain is in dividends and premium selling, with the balance in appreciation.

- Gel1

Well that was a fun day. Cashed out my GS 140 calls for about 35% profit and my AAPL calls for 38% gain. Not bad for 40 minutes of work. Back to 85% cash.

- Singapore Steve

I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.

- Flipspiceland

I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!

- Iflantheman

Phil...The hundred grand portfolio updates are helpful...Fun ..and have been profitable...really like em... made some nice entries into USB, KEY today... and I better add those FAZ calls tomorrow... Really glad you put that up this morning...

- Becker

Thanks Phil another great week of guiding us!

- Steven Parker

I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife. We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives. The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving…but well worth it! Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children's college funds and our retirement.

- David

Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

- Steve

Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!

- Jromeha

That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

- Kwan

Hi Phil, Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling. You are the man (of the people)!

- Howard Roake

Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!

- TmDecay

Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

- Neverworkagain

I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.

- TokyoLife

Joined last year and and started profitably trading options thanks to everything I have learned here. THANK YOU!!

- OnWisconsin

Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

- Gel1

Fed days are fun! Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks. I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account. Net gain of 20% in 20 seconds. Can't do that very often…

- MrMocha

I think that Phil is super, I am up 39.3% YTD. Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February.

- KMisko

Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

- Neverworkagain

Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

- RMM

Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.

- CdsdpDean

Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!

- Gel1

Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.

- RMM

You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

- Corleone

I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.

- Kustomz

Speaking of the "Man Who Planted Trees", it really works. I bought BTU back in March at $49.87. I practically bought it at the tippy top. However, I soon afterward found this site, started learning Phil's methodology(and those in the strategy section) and began selling calls/puts regularly against my bad position. As of yesterday, I still own the original 100 shares, but have brought my basis down by over $11.00. Couldn't be happier, what started out as a really bad entry, I have managed to work down to a good basis. Had I not watched that video and learned your system, I would sold out of the position, and been kicking myself for making such a bad entry.

- Hoss

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Our $25K-$100K Portfolio – Week 6 – $31,813

by Phil - March 12th, 2011 8:23 am

Wow, what a ride!

We had a super-busy day on Friday and it’s a great example of exactly why we play this hyper-aggressive virtual portfolio the way we do – with balanced positions on both sides, taking advantages of moves in either direction – not just to cash out winners, but to press our losing bets on the theory that our ranges will continue to hold. They will, of course, break one day – and that’s why we keep such a close eye on our watch levels but, as long as they remain range-bound – it’s just a little gold mine that we can tap over and over and over again.

We caught the downturn on the dime on Wednesday and yesterday it was crazy from the first minute – so much so that I had to send a 7:15 am Alert to Members regarding the earthquake in Japan, an update on the "Day of Rage" (as we expected, a big nothing) and how the Wall Street Journal was once again ripping off my headlines.

On the whole, we got the spike low and then the ridiculous run-up we had expected for Friday – the Japanese quake was just the "reason" de jure for the bots. Although I sincerely hope I do not have to remind our Members of Rule #1 (as we only have two rules) – I did send out another Alert at 9:34 saying: "$25KP Moves. I do not have time to check prices – take money and run on FAZ short calls, USO long puts and EDZ of course. More to follow." - as there was not a second to waste if we were going to sell into this particular excitement.

At 9:40 I was already flipping bullish and we added the DIA March $120 calls at $1.03 in the $25KP and then, by 9:59, we had a slew of adjustments to make, which I will detail below. I did not have time to mention it in the morning, so I will mention it now – one of the only times it is acceptable to put in market orders is when you are selling into the excitement. If you have 3 positions to dump out of before the market turns and 7 other positions to look over to decide what to do with them – you’d better execute those sells but that…

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Food Prices Rise 11% in China, Overall Prices Rises 4.9%; Central Planning Idiocy; China’s Impossible Dream

by ilene - March 11th, 2011 7:37 pm

Courtesy of Mish

Food prices continue to soar in China and the overall prices are up 4.9% officially. Nonetheless, the Chinese central bank has ruled out currency appreciation and has also ruled up curtailment of credit.

The New York Times has additional details in China’s February Inflation Held at 4.9 Percent

China’s February inflation stayed elevated on a double-digit rise in food prices, adding to pressure for communist leaders to cool surging living costs they worry could fuel unrest.

February consumer prices rose 4.9 percent while food price inflation accelerated to 11 percent from January’s 10.3 percent increase. That exceeded Beijing’s 4 percent target for the year and defied forecasts by analysts who expected the rate to ease.

Inflation, especially in food prices, is dangerous for China’s leaders because it erodes economic gains that underpin the Communist Party’s claim to power. Poor Chinese families spend up to half their incomes on food.

Speaking at a news conference held in connection with the annual meeting of China’s legislature, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said inflation is stable, though at a "relatively high level."

Zhou ruled out major changes in credit or exchange rate policy. Analysts say Beijing has fueled inflation by keeping interest rates too low to ward off the global crisis and could cut import costs by letting its tightly controlled currency rise faster against the dollar.

"The main instrument for managing inflation is not the exchange rate regime," Zhou told reporters. He added later: "When we make adjustments to interest rates we cannot think about the consumer price index only. We have other objectives, such as the impact on liquidity in the market."

Beijing has tried to mollify the public by paying food subsidies to poor families and ordering local leaders to see vegetable markets have adequate supplies.

China’s Impossible Dream

China does not want to hike rates
China does not want to curtail bank lending
China does not want the Yuan to rise
China does not want inflation to exceed 4%
China does want 7-10% growth

China is going to overheat to the point of implosion unless it does something it does not want to do. Sustained 10% growth, or even 7% growth is no longer possible.

China refuses to come to grips with that reality. Instead, Chinese banks keep making real estate loans for properties no one can afford and no one even…

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Cornfields vs. Oilfields (Infographic)

by ilene - March 11th, 2011 6:20 pm

Heres’s an interesting infographic by Online Schools, via Timothy B. Hurst and h/t Jr. Deputy Accountant.

Via: Online Schools

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Chart Porn: Here’s the Real Reason Gas is So Expensive

by ilene - March 11th, 2011 6:13 pm

Courtesy of Jr. Deputy Accountant

…besides the fact that oil is denominated in dollars and our dollars are being diluted on a daily basis by the money-printing maniacs at the Federal Reserve.

I present to you, my second favorite food-based commodity (after ~~bacon~~ pork bellies, of course), corn:

Lookit ‘er go!

Corn was trading at $3.50 over the summer and is now just under $7. The U.S. government predicts corn reserves this year will be at their lowest level in 15 years due to high demand from China and, presumably, our gas tanks (who came up with that idea?! The cornfield mafia, of course.).

Just wait until these price spikes really hit the grocery store, we haven’t even had time to digest this yet. Must be that global savings glut at work or something, couldn’t possibly have anything to do with all the dollars we pulled out of our as*es.

Worse, look for an ethanol farmer bailout, coming soon to a cornfield near you.

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How Punk Rock and Pop Music Relate to Social Mood and the Markets

by ilene - March 11th, 2011 5:36 pm

Elliott Wave Internation explains How Punk Rock and Pop Music Relate to Social Mood and the Markets.

We can now add the recent uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East to the category of life imitating art — specifically, music lyrics. Those who lived through the 1980s might be forgiven for hearing an unbidden snatch of music run through their heads as they watched first Hosni Mubarak and now Moammar Gadhafi try to hold onto power — "Should I Stay or Should I Go" by The Clash. In Libya, where Gadhafi has used air strikes and ground forces against the rebels, The Clash’s other huge hit from 1981, "Rock the Casbah," describes the current situation so well it’s almost eerie:

The king called up his jet fighters
He said you better earn your pay
Drop your bombs between the minarets
Down the Casbah way

Punk rock played by bands like The Clash, X, The Ramones, and the Sex Pistols had that in-your-face, defy-authority attitude that crashed onto the scene in Great Britain and the United States in the ’70s and ’80s. It’s interesting that the lyrics can still ring true 30 years later, but even more trenchant is how the prevailing mood is reflected by the music of the times, as seen in this chart that Robert Prechter included in a talk he gave last year.

popular music and stock market

Popular culture reflects social mood, and the stock market reflects that same social mood. That’s why we get loud, angry music when people are unhappy with their situation; they want to sell stocks. We get light, poppy, bubblegum music when they feel happy and content; they want to buy stocks. In a USA Today article about music and social moods in November 2009, reporter Matt Frantz made clear the connection that Elliott Wave International has been writing about for years:

The idea linking culture to stock prices is surprisingly simple: The population essentially goes through mass mood swings that determine not only the types of music we listen to and movies we watch, but also if we want to buy or sell stocks. These emotional booms and busts are followed by corresponding swings on Wall Street.

"The same social elements driving the stock market are driving the gyrations on the dance floor," says Matt Lampert, research fellow at the Socionomics Institute, a think tank associated with well-known market researcher Robert

…

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Crashiversary Week – Friday Shakedown – Earthquake Edition

by Phil - March 11th, 2011 7:24 am

What’s shaking?

That was a special message for our friends in Japan, who are very shaken today with an 8.9 quake which is, of course, devastating. Here’s a picture and notice how stuff is just pulverized (before being washed away by the 30-foot Tsunami that followed (on the right of the picture):

[1jquake0311]

Somehow they are saying only 29 dead but I can’t see that. Tens of thousands of people were evacuated and 4.1M people lost power so far. Poor New Zealand was recently hit and now they have Tsunami warnings too (as does Hawaii).

[JQUAKE]

At 3:24 p.m., a large aftershock struck, which could be felt standing on the ground outside of buildings in central Tokyo. People gasped while looking up at skyscrapers swaying gently and construction cranes shaking violently atop half-completed buildings. Glass panels on the ground floor of many newer buildings shimmied but few appeared to break.

Let’s hear it for the World’s strongest building code! I very much doubt US buildings would fare so well.

This will make a Japanese rate hike out of the question, probably for the rest of this year and so will be a dollar booster and EDZ will, of course, be flying. This is not the way we like to win on our bets, unfortunately but it is a very good object lesson about why it is very foolish not to always have some kind of disaster protection in your portfolio – because you never do know when a disaster is going to strike.

Over time, it’s complacency that kills you…

Meanwhile, my kids are home today because their school is flooded – we are screwing up this planet in all kinds of crazy ways aren’t we? I’m sure if we ignore all this stuff or call for "further research" (funded of course by the very same businesses that cause the pollution) for another few decades it will all be fine.

Oil is way down at $99.90 – so much for the "Day of Rage," which is kind of a fizzle in Saudi Arabia - If there is such a thing as a "long-squeeze" then you may be seeing it today as speculators need to

…

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Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm

Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – Medium-term bullish positioning is building up in Sprint Nextel Corp. options today with shares in the name trading 3.00% higher on the session at $4.84 as of 12:20pm in New York. Investors expecting shares in the provider of various communications products and services to extend gains through May expiration engaged in plain-vanilla call buying, purchasing the options out-right to position for shares to potentially reach a new 52-week high in the next couple of months. Volume is heaviest at the May $6.0 strike where 20,750 calls have changed hands versus previously existing open interest of 7,482 contracts. It looks like roughly 18,000 of the calls were picked up at a premium of $0.08 each. Call buyers make money if Sprint’s shares jump 25.6% over the current price of $4.84 to surpass the effective breakeven price of $6.08 by expiration day in May. Sprint Nextel Corp. is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings before the market opens for trading on April 28, 2011.

FTR - Frontier Communications Corp. – Put volume on the communications company jumped today after sizable trades were initiated in the May contract. It looks like investors responsible for the put activity may be purchasing the contracts to brace for bearish movement in the price of the underlying stock. Shares in Frontier Communications Corp. are currently down 0.90% to stand at $8.00 as of 12:30pm. The selection of the May contract put options could be coincident with the firm’s first-quarter earnings report, which is scheduled for release before the opening bell on May 5, 2011. One trader appears to have purchased some 3,000 puts at the May $8.0 strike for a premium of $0.40 each. The investor starts to make money on the put-acquisition if shares in FTR decline 5.0% from the current price of $8.00 to breach the effective breakeven point at $7.60 by May expiration day. Volume is greatest, however, at the lower May $7.0 strike where 15,000 put options…

Tags: FTR, JTX, S, SBUX

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Charts Of Indexes Forecasted Sell-Off

by Chart School - March 10th, 2011 4:17 pm

By David of All About Trends

One of the best change in trend patterns is the First Thrust Down short-sell pattern. The saying goes:

“First Thrust Down, Snapback Rally, Bombs Away”

Let’s look at some examples:

BCSI

Classic first thrust down, puts in a bear channel, snapback rally call it what you will in pink, breaks it and it’s bombs away. One catch, the bombs away was earnings related. BUT that’s the pattern we want to see on the short side with names.

SLAB

Same here. The blue box is the first thrust down, the pink lines represent the snap back rally, and then bombs away. In both cases, the short sell trade is initiated on a break to the downside out of the pink channel. Now let’s look at the indexes:

You can see a break of the Pink Snapback rally (bear channel) that we’ve been highlighting. So could we keep going down here? Yes, as we got the break.

We’ve laid out a dark blue line in the daily charts here as they are prior support levels to be aware of. Should we get there in a hurry? It’s where our paying subscribers will lock in their short-sell gains!

To learn more, sign up for our free newsletter and receive our free report — “How To Outperform 90% Of Wall Street With Just $500 A Week.”

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Crashiversary Week Continues – Thursday Thump

by Phil - March 10th, 2011 8:23 am

Wheeeeeeeee!

Looks like we picked the right day to get bearish! Of course we expected this all week because, as noted Sunday’s Stock World Weekly – it’s not a POMO day. No free money – Oh noooooooooooooooo! In Monday’s Member Chat, we discussed the flight to defensive stocks and how the unwinding of POMO could cause BIG TROUBLE for the market. While POMO is not the be all and end all of the market movements – you do have to think of it as support that props it up so lack of POMO – like we’re having today – leaves us much more vulnerable to other negative news.

There was a ton of negative news in our intra-day notes yesterday and, as I mentioned in the morning post – we’re very concerned that the consumer has been pushed to the edge of a cliff so, of course, we took the opportunity to get much more bearish during the day with several disaster hedges and, of course, the same DIA $120.75 puts at the same price we had so much fun with on Tuesday. We also, as noted in the morning post, had fun shorting oil at the $105 mark – over and over and over again as it moved between $105 and $104 but 5th time is a charm as they finally broke hard this morning and fell all the way to $102.32 on the last drop, which now makes winners of our USO puts as well so, like I said – Wheeeeeeeeeeeee!

So, let’s see which of the things we’ve been ignoring suddenly matter today:

INFLATION

Japan’s GDP shrank 1.3% last quarter on LESS consumer spending and LESS capital investment. "Gee, I don’t know George, we raised all our prices and people bought less stuff – who’d have thunk?"
China posts biggest trade deficit in 7 years. Prices go up and people buy less junk – even if it’s cheap junk.
Moody’s downgrades Spanish debt. Really? Gee, we never saw that coming, did we?
Borrowing costs for the PIIGS are back to crisis highs. Same year-old link as above.
Only one in seven Americans believe we are in a lasting recovery and over 50% say they are WORSE OFF than they were two years ago. (And – don’t forget – they don’t even poll people

…

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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

September 22nd, 2011 5:36 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...

Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

May 5th, 2011 5:10 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...

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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

March 12th, 2011 9:41 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...

Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

March 12th, 2011 9:35 am

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.

Click for a larger image

I've ...

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

March 12th, 2011 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm

Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

Swing trading portfolio

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

March 6th, 2011 8:22 am

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.

Download Newsletter 3/6/11

Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

March 1st, 2011 9:42 am

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

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Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...

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