Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Hey Phil - writing to thank you! First of all, and I know you have heard this a few times form some others - the portfolio updates you have done - with entries and targets and even margin reqs are invaluable! I find myself understanding what is done here IN THEORY most of the time..however, there is a much bigger difference in placing and setting up the hedges properly than just understanding…This has been eye opening for me and Ifeel like I just took a major step in trading during the last week.

- Bcfla

I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.

- Gel1

Wow, Phil, we pretty much made your levels. Your levels: Dow 7,404, S&P 775, Nas 1,466, NYSE 4,839 and RUT 402 My sceen is showing: Dow 7,404, S&P 777, Nas 1,462, NYSE 4,868 and RUT 404

- Jordan

Kudos on the POT puts! I studied the charts last night and you couldn't have hit the inflection points more perfectly. Since there are often many head fakes in the charts, that was very well done. I know they can't all work this well, but that was an extra unexpected bonus yesterday.

- Ocelli7

All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.

- Seaquill

Gel1…..I've been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning. Lots of smart people on the site and I've learned a lot from Phil and many others. //// Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board. I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80% profit for 2009. I have learned a lot and am still learning ( even occasionally about political issues - ha! )

- Iflantheman & Gel1

Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm. In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.

- Hoss

Phil - Your logic not only makes sense, but it made a lot of premium profit for me over the past 12 months. I have recovered much of the massive equity losses of last year. My Monday play is the sale of long term puts on FXI. Love the premium!

- Gel1

Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!

- Gel1

Hello Phil, Thanks for the heads up on the comming sell off on friday, and the bs job yesterday. your our guiding light!

- Microflux

TBT - Many thanks, Phil. I join you in your opinion favoring the Jan expirations. That's a great play. I can never thank you enough for what I have gained educationally as well as monitarily. Here it is late Sunday evening and I am able to get world class advice, just by asking for it. I feel like I am staying in a 5 star hotel, and room service is just a telephone call away!

- Gel1

Peter D: great write-up for Short Strangles, Part 1, looking forward to Part 2, particularly the adjustment part.

- RMM

Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.

- JBaker

I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

- Pharmboy

I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays. The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission. I have had an expensive education on what not to do- what is past is past- I am looking forward to profitable/fun future.

- Pstas

Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

- RMM

Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!

- JRW III

Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

- Neverworkagain

Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

- MrMocha

I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

- Zucko

Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

- Humvee

Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

- Steve

I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!

- Iflantheman

BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!

- StJeanluc

Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

- Magret

Personally I admire and respect you disciplined approach to investing. My style is at the extreme side of aggressive and I have to learn how to be less that way. If I yell " Let it Ride" at my house, no one says a word so I can't use that to temper my behavior. Phil has done a pretty good job of knocking some of my potential moves and as a result, I have increased my portfolio value by almost 25% since late July.

- DoubleD

AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

- Cap

Sold the BG puts I got yesterday at $1.30 for $2 just now. Might be a little early, but I'm happy with that gain. Thanks Phil.

- Smasher

Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

- RMM

On Optrader's section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers'. I've got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it's hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I've learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Roaster

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

OPKO Health – Sick or Dead?

by Insider Zone - March 10th, 2011 2:05 am

By Ilene

Pharmboy thinks OPKO Health (OPK) is just a little unwell. OPKO’s CEO Philip Frost appears to agree and bought around $3M in OPK stock yesterday.

We wrote about OPKO Health (OPK) in Stock World Weekly on February 27. OPKO is specialty healthcare company involved in discovering, developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products, vaccines, medical devices, and diagnostic and imaging technologies. Its medical research is in areas of oncology, infectious diseases, and neurological disorders. Recently, insiders have been buying shares.

In Stock World Weekly, Pharmboy wrote, “With the recent pull back in the stock, it is time to consider an initial 1/4 round of shares under $4.50. Options are lightly traded, but the September $5 Puts seem to be a favorite, so selling a 1/4 entry ($1.20 or better) might be good for another round of stock if it gets put to you. This is a small cap stock, and no more than 3-5% of a portfolio should be dedicated to these types of companies.”

The small pullback Pharmboy noted at the end of February quickly turned into a larger pullback, and the stock closed on Wednesday March 9 at $3.59.

OPK first started dropping on March 3, after announcing plans to raise $100 million of capital in a secondary stock offering. OPKO Health Announces Proposed Offering of Common Stock:

MIAMI--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- OPKO Health, Inc. (NYSE Amex: OPK) today announced that it intends to offer and sell $100 million of its common stock in an underwritten public offering. The Company expects to grant the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional $15 million of common stock offered to cover overallotments of shares, if any. The offering is subject to market conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether or when the offering may be completed, or as to the actual size or terms of the offering.

OPK initially planned to sell new shares at $4.75 according to South Florida Business Journal:

Opko’s prospectus said that an offering of $4.74 a share – the closing price on March 1 – would require it to issue 21.1 million shares of common stock. The company did not finalize a price for the offering.

On March 9, OPK disclosed that the price was set at $3.75. OPKO Health Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock:

MIAMI--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- OPKO

…

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Oxen Group Nightly – March 9, 2011 – Stock Market Recap

by David Ristau - March 9th, 2011 5:16 pm

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Traders Build Up Bullish Positions on IBM Corp.

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - March 9th, 2011 4:07 pm

Today’s tickers: IBM, CHSI, TCB & BC

IBM - International Business Machines Corp. – Bulls positioning for shares in IBM to extend gains flocked to the options market today, populating weekly as well as longer-dated expiries with signs of optimism. Shares in the computer services company increased as much as 3.35% during the session to secure an intraday- and new all-time high of $167.72. The stock jumped after a number of analysts raised their share price targets in the aftermath of IBM’s analyst meeting on Tuesday. Investors expecting the uptrend to continue at least through the end of this week purchased March $165 and $170 strike calls, and sold nearly 2,000 of the March $165 strike puts in the weekly contract set to expire on Friday. Bullish sentiment spread to the March contract call options set to expire on the 18th of this month, with investors buying around 2,000 in-the-money calls at the March $165 strike for an average premium of $2.60 each. Call volume is greatest at the higher March $170 strike where more than 9,950 calls changed hands on open interest of 5,480 contracts. It looks like the majority of the calls were purchased for an average premium of $0.62 apiece. Investors long the higher-strike calls are poised to profit should shares in IBM rally another 1.7% to surpass the average breakeven price of $170.62 by expiration day. IBM is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the market closes for the day on April 18, 2011.

CHSI - Catalyst Health Solutions, Inc. – Options on the full-service pharmacy benefit management (PBM) company are active today on news it agreed to purchase Walgreen Company’s PBM business for $525 million. Shares in Catalyst Health Solutions jumped 18.3% during the session to hit an intraday and all-time high of $52.69. One options player appears to have nearly doubled his money in the span of three weeks by taking profits on a bullish stance initiated back on February 16, 2011, when shares in CHSI closed at $45.65. It…

Tags: BC, CHSI, IBM, TCB

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Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking On

by Sabrient - March 9th, 2011 2:42 pm

By Scott at Sabrient and Ilene

Stand up and be counted

For what you are about to receive

We are the (primary) dealers

We’ll give you everything you need (free money!)

Hail, Hail to the good times’

Cause rock has got the right of way

We ain’t no legend, aint no cause

We’re just livin for today (the Fed)

For those about to rock, we salute you – AC/DC

Dark Horse Hedge is Rocking On

With February and the most of earnings season passing, we decided to "stand up and be counted" with a summary article on the VIRTUAL Dark Horse Traders’ Hedge (DHH) portfolio.

Our mission has been to generate absolute returns through the use of a tilted Long/Short strategy that remains market neutral, but with a partial bias towards momentum (as defined by measuring the S&P 500 relative to its 50 and 200 day Moving Averages). We have been tilted to the long side since October 2010.

Over the long term, reasons for using such a strategy include being positioned to take advantage of both bull and bear runs. As evidenced by the near zero returns of the market over the last 10 years, buy-and-hold strategies are majorly flawed. The market also teaches hard lessons to those who attempt to predict direction, and has forced many retail investors to reconsider their strategies after being pounded in 2001 and 2008.

Alpha is a measure of a return over and above a benchmark index’s return, and Beta is a measure of the portfolio’s performance as it is correlated to movements of the market. With DHH, we strive to optimize Alpha while minimizing Beta to protect our portfolio in up and down markets. Beta is reduced by holding both Long and Short positions and using a rules-based approach to determine which stocks have the best chacteristics to benefit when the market is rising, and conversely to determine which stocks are most apt to perform poorly when the market is falling. In other words, we want to be long stocks of the best companies and short stocks of the worst companies – we want to identify the "tails" of a market, index, sector or basket of stocks.

Once a portfolio of Long and Short stocks is established, then it is a matter of gaining the desired exposure using the available tools, such as …

Tags: ARW, AXS, GCI, IM, Stock Market, stocks

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Which Way Wednesday – Happy Crashiversary!

by Phil - March 9th, 2011 8:07 am

Click to View Can you believe it was just 100% ago that the market collapsed?

I talked about the blood in the streets and all the fun we had in Monday’s post. The chart shows the S&P, DAX and Hang Seng all up almost exactly 100% (1,333 or bust is still our goal on the S&P) with the FTSE dragging along at 70%, the Nikkei up just 50% (although not bad for a country that is "mired in deflation") and the Shanghai isn’t even trying with a 40% gain in 24 months. The star of our show is the Bombay Sensex, which is up 125% since March 9th of 2009 but it doesn’t feel like it as they were up about 160% in November.

The Hang Seng has also pulled back about 20% since November but everyone else is catching up with even the Shangai bouncing while the Hang Seng consolidates. Our 100% lines on the US indexes are 12,938 on the Dow, 1,333 on the S&P, 2,530 on the Nasdaq, 8,362 on the NYSE and 684 on the Russell. The Russell is our leader, up 140% in two years (which is REALLY good for the RUT $390 Index calls we bought back on crash day for just $10!) and the Nasdaq is up 119% off their 1,265 low but we liked buying AMZN at $62.50 better than risking the basket of the index at the time and that too has worked out well with AMZN now $167 (up 167% coincidentally).

We were already in AAPL and GOOG etc – the usual suspects as we had gone bullish the week before the crash in March of 2009 – all the crash did was flash a big SALE sign at us while we were already at the mall with cash to spend. Most of my picks on that actual day were financials: SKF shorts, FAS longs, XLF long, RKH long, BAC long (at $3.14!) and then some staples like GE, DIS, TGT and HOV (at 0.65!) along with the Russell, which was our "index most likely to succeed" selection.

So you can’t blame us for hoping we have another nice correction – especially with values currently so stretched. We don’t want to be bearish but, when there’s nothing to buy you either stay in cash or get a little short and, as much as we liked AMZN at $62.50, we have…

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Oxen Nightly – March 8 – Stock Market Recap

by David Ristau - March 8th, 2011 6:17 pm

3 Comments »

Bullish Options Strategist Tunes Into TiVo

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - March 8th, 2011 4:40 pm

Today’s tickers: TIVO, PCX, JDSU & ACN

TIVO - TiVo, Inc. – A sizable speculative bullish position was initiated in TiVo options today, though shares in the provider of digital video recording services fell as much as 5.85% at the start of the session to hit an intraday low of $8.53. The large four-legged transaction may be the work of an investor positioning for shares in the name to spike higher should the firm prevail in its legal battle regarding DVR technology against EchoStar and Dish Network. Results of the case are expected in the next couple of months. It looks like three of the four legs of the transaction were sold in order to offset the cost of getting long in-the-money calls expiring in August. The optimistic options player sold 10,000 puts at the August $7.0 strike for a premium of $1.01 each, shed 10,000 calls up at the August $15 strike at a premium of $0.52 apiece, and sold 10,000 calls at the May $20 strike for a premium of $0.06 per contract. The short legs of the trade were marked against the purchase of 10,000 in-the-money calls at the August $8.0 strike for a premium of $2.53 a-pop. Net premium paid to initiate the spread amounts to $0.94 per contract, and prepares the trader to profit should shares in TiVo rally 4.8% over today’s low point of $8.53 to surpass the breakeven price of $8.94 by August expiration. The investor could walk away with hefty maximum potential profits of $6.06 per contract in the event that TIVO’s shares jump 75.85% to trade above $15.00 in the time remaining to expiration. One observation worth mentioning is that the August contract call and put options represent fresh positioning given the tiny levels of previously existing open interest at each strike. But, the fourth leg of the trade, the May $20 strike calls, have more than 41,000 open positions. The trader could be rolling the calls out to the August contract, or closing…

Tags: ACN, IVO, JDSU, PCX

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Trading with Elliott Waves

by Chart School - March 8th, 2011 12:15 pm

Big Advantages of Trading with the Wave Principle

Plus: Discover Where to Place "Protective Stops"

By Elliott Wave International

What advantages does the Wave Principle offer to traders?

Here’s one of the big advantages of using the Wave Principle when trading: you can increase your understanding of how current price action relates to the market’s larger trend.

Other tools fall short in this regard. Several trend-following indicators such as oscillators and sentiment measures have their strong points, yet they generally fail to reveal the maturity of a trend. Moreover, these technical approaches to trading are not as useful in establishing price targets as the Wave Principle.

Here’s another big advantage of using the Wave Principle in your trading, which comes directly from the free eBook "How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading" -

"Technical studies can pick out many trading opportunities, but the Wave Principle helps traders discern which ones have the highest probability of being successful."

Indeed, this valuable free eBook shows you how to identify and exploit the market’s price pattern, as shown in the Elliott wave structure below:

The Wave Principle also helps you to identify price levels where you may want to place protective stops.

"…although the Wave Principle is highly regarded as an analytical tool, many traders abandon it when they trade in real-time — mainly because they don’t think it provides the defined rules and guidelines of a typical trading system.

But not so fast — although the Wave Principle isn’t a trading "system," its built-in rules do show you where to place protective stops in real-time trading."
"How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading"

Before you attempt to identify price levels for protective or trailing stops, you should first become familiar with these three rules of the Wave Principle:

Wave 2 can never retrace more than 100 percent of wave 1
Wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1
Wave 3 may never be the shortest impulse wave of waves 1, 3, and 5

The details and specific instructions for placing protective and trailing stops are in the BONUS section of the free eBook, "How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading."

Here’s what you’ll learn:

How the Wave Principle provides you with price targets
How it gives you specific "points of ruin": At what point does a trade fail?
What specific trading opportunities the

…

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Crashiverary Week Continues – Testy Tuesday

by Phil - March 8th, 2011 7:58 am

Wheeeee – this is fun!

I do so love it when a plan comes together and our plan in yesterday’s Morning Alert to Members at 9:55 was to pick up the DIA March $120.75 puts for .90 into the silly and very fake-looking "rally" and, as you can see, we had a very easy time getting in below our target and those puts took off like a rocket, giving us a huge win by lunch.

That gave us a very nice start to our trading week and we took trades on both sides of the aisle during the rest of the day including a short play on oil at $106 as I decided $105 was going to be tough to hold due to a combination of "fear exhaustion" and the fact that our crack team of overseas analysts have determined that Qaddafi can’t last and the only people who don’t know that are Qaddafi and the idiots pumping oil on CNBC.

Still, for the most part, it was a watching and waiting kind of day although we did take the opportunity to adjust our $25,000 Portfolio, trying to lock down our $29,961 cash position by getting our unrealized gains and losses to cancel each other out. We did hold on to our EDZ hedges as they are for April and Fitch did just say that China faces a 60% risk of a bank crisis by 2013. "Fitch sees a risk of “holes in bank balance sheets” should a property bubble burst," according to Director Richard Fox. This same indicator used by Fitch correctly predicted both Iceland and Ireland’s crises well in advance (but nobody ever listens).

Bloomberg reports that events on the streets of Beijing offer a timely reality check. There, economists can find ample evidence that China may be approaching the limits of its ability to grow sustainably. Inflation is among the forces unnerving the masses, a phenomenon not unlike the one inspiring uprisings in the Middle East. The economy may be at a dangerous turning point, one where jumps in asset and consumer prices derail an impressive run. It doesn’t mean China is about to crash. It does mean that the time for taking its boom for granted is over.

So China is clearly at the breaking point and our play is that either oil fails to hold $105 or China begins to…

Join Member's Chat - 239 Comments Here »

Stocks-Crude Inverse Correlation Passes 2008 Levels, Just Off All Time Highs: Major Correction Ahead?

by Chart School - March 7th, 2011 7:19 pm

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

A week ago we presented the suddenly surprising inverse correlation between stocks and crude, commenting that: "the last time WTI to Stocks hit a correlation of -0.5 is just after the market peaked in late 2007, early 2008, as the market had started its decline which culminated with the global sell off of everything not nailed down, bringing the S&P to 666. The correlation between the two assets is again -0.5. If Brent confirms the WTI correlation, it may be time to run." Subsequently every chartist jumped on this observation, yet it is today’s update that is material significance: as of a few hours ago, the inverse correlation between the Brent front month has just passed the lows recorded in 2008, just before the market tumbled, when increases in oil prices no longer produced increasing stock prices (i.e., market topping). In other words, "it is now time to run" as we have just surpassed that level. And in fact, a longer term chart shows that we are just off the all time lows in the MSCI-Brent correlation. If this series continues dropping a correction is virtually assured.

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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

September 22nd, 2011 5:36 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...

Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

May 5th, 2011 5:10 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...

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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

March 12th, 2011 9:41 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...

Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

March 12th, 2011 9:35 am

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.

Click for a larger image

I've ...

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

March 12th, 2011 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm

Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

Swing trading portfolio

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

March 6th, 2011 8:22 am

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.

Download Newsletter 3/6/11

Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

March 1st, 2011 9:42 am

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;nbsp;

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...

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About Phil:

Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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About Ilene:

Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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