Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

Daily Stock and Options Tips & Updates; Get Our Daily Newsletter Here

Phil - Moved today to send kudos. You're in my top 5 to see/read daily. I do not trade... but as former econ-finance adjunct faculty near Stanford U. I give you lots of attaboys.... and provide your links to many to spread some understanding of the mess we are in. Best to you and yours,

- HJ Kobbeman

AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

- Cap

Thanks, Phil. I really appreciate your sentiment and commitment! Just want to thank you for what you do for all of us.

- JBaker

Phil, I have the SRS 2011 $7.50 short puts you recommended awhile back. I sold them for $2.20 and now $1.51 (up 31%) although SRS has been down since inception. This was a nice mellow way to play it like you said, thanks.

- Jomptien

Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!

- TmDecay

All I can say is — I understand that the Universe sent me to PSW for a reason. So, I'm listening!! …and studying. Your commentary is literally outstanding. …and your members are impressive as well.

- Seaquill

1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!

- Phil Pearlman - StockTwits

Phil: I have 263 positions - 70% in options ( balance stocks) in three portfolios with a value of 3 mil. YTD profit is about $750,000. Thanks!

- Gel1

Opt, I think the hardest thing is being disciplined enough to trade with you. Atleast now when I see something go in the red I know how much I'm going to loose and that I will profit somewhere else and have enough money left at the end of the day to trade again. Thanks for all your hard work! My stress levels are down 75% and I have even made a small profit in the short time I've been here

- Mopar

Phil: Once again thanks for those inciteful comments, and the old links to Sage's portfolio management (I hadn't read before). I'm an experienced stock trader, but over the last 3 or 4 months have come to appreciate options trading here at PSW, and the consistency of your many premium-selling strategies. It is liberating to have to worry less about getting direction right and being able to generate 5% MONTHLY returns with close to delta-neutral positioning. Much appreciated!

- Neverworkagain

Phil - Thanks for the welcoming gift of the POT at a buck Just paid for this month and my membership is not even 24 hours old! looking forward to many more - bk

- Bjkeck

I've recently done exactly what Phil described. I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct. by transferring acct. from TDA to TOS. TDA would not allow spreads; TOS does. Neither will allow naked options. With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over. This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal. This wasn't an original idea. Phil put me onto it. Since the transfer I've substantially increased my performance in the IRA!

- Iflantheman

Phil I have been applying your arsenal (matresses, Edz plays, Ugl verticals etc.) to my gold holdings . So a big thank you for "teaching me how to fish" rather than just giving me the fish...

- Magret

Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

- RMM

I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

- Zucko

Hi Phil, Thanks for the free disaster hedge ideas. I implemented variations of two of them on SDS bull call spreads and EEM bear put spreads (haven't done the TZA yet) and they really hedged my short term longs nicely today. Makes it seem a lot less like gambling. You are the man (of the people)!

- Howard Roake

Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

- RMM

Phil, I don't know if I told you lately but you da man! I'm doing so much better following your guidelines. It's like you actually know what you are talking about. 8-) I've tried a lot of services and none of them are as comprehensive or honest AND successful. I appreciate all youz other guys/gals input as well…learning tons as a relative newbie to this game.

- Aclend

thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

- Kwan

I have followed along with your commentary and alerts and have been flabbergasted at your quick analytical skills and your journalistic skills to explain it clearly. In a little over three weeks I have cleared almost 1000.00 dollars and got an intensive education at the same time. I would like to immediately upgrade my membership.

- TokyoLife

A truly great website with a lot of information for investors. Whether you are a novice, seasoned, or a professional there is a lot to be gained about stock options and options trading from this very informative website.

- ZKatkin

Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

- Humvee

Phil & Ephmen85: I hadn't thought about selling the covered calls. That should be the easiest strategy for me since I'm a beginner. Thanks a bunch!

- JWick1981

I have been here a year, and made most of my money back from the 14K fall. The people here are more than willing to help whe Phil cannot get to it. FWIW - This site is my brokerage firm, I was with Wells Fargo Portfolio and it was costing a fortune to trade, the costs here are more than offset with the data, trade ideas and profits you should make.. and I get a chuckle out of Cap and Phil's rantings on healtcare, guns, oh, yeah, and government….

- Pharmboy

I did the same thing via your logic (sold puts that is). I glanced one time and they were already up 15% which is considered a good return for an overnight hold in most circles. This is PSW though and to us it's just another day…

- Kwan

Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

- Greg

Thanks for the oil tip Phil: Bot & sold the USO May 29 calls for net $125. Not bad for few minutes work.

- JWick1981

That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

- Kwan

Being a bear is easy (and I am not convinced we are doing all that well on the whole as an economy), but one cannot fight the trend (didn't Phil say that a while ago)? Just cover, make 5-10-15-20% and move on. It really does add up by chipping away. All I can say is I am back to 2007 levels in my account b'f the crash with this run up and some very nice help on this board….so kudos to us (and me!!)…

- Pharmboy

The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!

- Gel1

Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Oxen Nightly – March 7 – Stock Market Recap

by David Ristau - March 7th, 2011 6:01 pm

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Put Player Positions for a Pullback in Lorillard Shares

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - March 7th, 2011 4:43 pm

Today’s tickers: LO, HMA, AMR & USO

LO - Lorillard Inc. – A three-legged spread involving April contract put options on the cigarette manufacturer appears to be the work of an investor positioning for the price of the underlying stock to slip ahead of expiration. Shares in Lorillard, the maker of Newport cigarettes, the number one menthol brand, are currently up 0.33% to stand at $78.00 as of 12:50pm. The stock rallied as much as 5.7% one week ago to trade as high as $81.18 after the FDA said the risk of lung cancer for smokers of menthol cigarettes does not differ significantly from that of non-menthol cigarettes. But, last week’s sharp run up in LO’s shares was fairly short-lived given other portions of the FDA report that were not quite as positive for big tobacco. One trader expecting Lorillard’s shares to fall in the near-term seems to have established a bearish butterfly spread. The investor picked up 5,000 puts at the April $75 strike for a premium of $4.40 each, sold 10,000 puts at the April $65 strike for a premium of $1.50 apiece, and purchased 5,000 puts at the April $55 strike for a premium of $0.35 a-pop. Net premium paid to initiate the put ‘fly amounts to $1.75 per contract. The trader profits if LO’s shares decline 6.1% from the current price of $78.00 to breach the effective breakeven point at $73.25 by April expiration. Maximum potential profits of $8.25 per contract pad the investor’s wallet in the event that shares plummet 16.7% to settle at $65.00 at expiration. Options implied volatility on the cigarette-stock is up 3.4% at 54.92% just after 1:00pm in New York.

HMA - Health Management Associates, Inc. – Shares in the health care services provider are down 1.4% in early afternoon trade to…

Tags: AMR, HMA, LO, USO

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“Crashiversary” Week Begins – Just Another Manic Monday

by Phil - March 7th, 2011 8:05 am

Happy Crashiversary!

Just 2 years ago this week, on March 6th, we spiked down to a low of 666.79 on the S&P 500. That move was capping off a relentless drop down from 950 as they year opened and was dashing most people’s hopes of a recovery. I say most, because certainly not ours as out Members were BUYBUYBUYing that F’ing dip. I happened to be on TV the afternoon of the crash doing a 3-hour special on Tim Syke’s LiveStock show where I not only made 13 REALLY good picks that made 469% over the next 6 months, but I also explained my logic for buying on that particular dip so it’s worth watching if you have time to kill.

That same afternoon, my friendbuddypal Jim Cramer was on TV throwing 5,320 around as a target for the Dow (it was at 6,626 that day so another 20% down) although you wouldn’t know it now because CNBC has redacted the video and changed the text on the link to his show that day. Fortunately, it’s hard to get rid of video once it hits the web so now you can decide if the new CNBC summary matches the actual tone of segment they are hiding. MSNBC’s summary of the segment remains: "Mad Money’s Jim Cramer makes the call that the Dow will bottom at no less than 5,320. Listen to why Cramer says the key index could still drop another 1,300 with CNBC’s Melissa Francis."

Click to View The Fast Money crew had a chance to watch my broadcast but still chose to go on with a unanimously bearish show that day and this one you still can catch part of on the official site. "A lot of people are calling bottoms," said Guy Adami. "But I still don’t think we’re there, yet. It has to feel like the end of the world before the market can bottom."

"The data that I’d watch to signal a bottom is the rate of decline slowing," adds Karen Finerman. "But I don’t see that, yet." "We won’t be at the bottom until the financials participate in the market’s broader moves," adds Pete Najarian. "I don’t think we’ll get a bottom until we get policy going forward that doesn’t seem like it’s just attacking Wall Street," adds Jon Najarian.

Crashes tend to make investors fearful and Mr. Buffett says…

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Long In The Tooth Rally

by markettamer - March 7th, 2011 1:41 am

Asia down overnight, futures down, euro rate hike…. rather than rehash it all, let’s get to the bottom of line of picks and performance!

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Three-Legged Bull Prepares for a PNC Rally

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - March 4th, 2011 6:30 pm

Today’s tickers: PNC, CEDC, SPLS & GILD

PNC - PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. – Shares in the financial services firm are down 1.00% at $60.34 in early-afternoon trade, but activity in May contract call and put options suggests one strategist sees shares in PNC rising sharply in the next few months. The three-legged bullish player appears to have sold 5,000 puts at the May $55 strike for a premium of 1.39 each, purchased the same number of calls at the May $62.5 strike for a premium of $2.15 per contract, and shed 5,000 calls up at the May $67.5 strike at a premium of $0.68 a-pop. The options trader paid a net premium of $0.08 per contract for the transaction, and stands ready to profit should PNC’s shares reverse course and rally 3.7% over the current price of $60.34 to exceed the average breakeven price of $62.58 by expiration day in May. The investor responsible for the trade could accumulate maximum potential profits of $4.92 per contract if the firm’s shares jump 11.9% to trade above $67.50 before the options expire. PNC’s shares last traded above $67.50 back in May 2010. The financial services provider reports first-quarter earnings before the opening bell on April 21, 2011.

CEDC - Central European Distribution Corp. – Near-term options activity on the vodka producer this morning suggests some investors expect the pain of Central European Distribution Corp.’s post-earnings hangover to stick around through March expiration. Shares in CEDC lost 11.2% today to trade at $12.38, the lowest recorded price for the stock since April 2009. The alcohol beverage provider’s shares dropped 45.8% during the trading week, from a closing price of $22.85 on Monday, to today’s low of $12.38. Put buyers in the March contract, however, do not seem to think CEDC has hit…

Tags: CEDC, GILD, PNC, SPLS

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Friday’s Market Blow – Jobs or No Jobs?

by Phil - March 4th, 2011 6:57 am

DBA WEEKLY Why are we bearish?

For one thing, we like to go bearish when the market is testing the top of it’s channel as there is generally a higher percentage probability that we drop than we pop back over. Secondly, as I mentioned yesterday, it’s not just the Federal Reserve that is in denial but the commodity speculators, the equity investors and even the bond investors as the ALL believe they are going to get paid while MATH says that’s not even remotely possible.

What is math? I know – thanks to cutbacks in our education budgets over the past 30 years, that is a question that vexes many Americans and it also creates a perfect environment for the people who CAN do math, those in the Financial sector perhaps, to design endless levels of complex instruments that are all designed to con people who have lower math skills than they do.

Complexity is good. Just like the legal scam, complexity forces you to seek assistance with your finances – the more money you have, the more complex your finances become and the more you need help and this allows swarms of leeches or, to be kind, remoras to attach themselves to you and feed endlessly off your earnings and savings (they don’t care which as they will happily destroy the host and simply move on to the next big fish).

Personally, I prefer simplicity. My Grandpa Max was a Depression kid who built a business from scratch and invested his money well and had a nice life for himself. He taught me how to invest when I was a little kid and, as you can imagine, he did not ask a "financial adviser" what to do with his money as he had seen where that had gotten his parents generation when he was young (he was 24 when the Global markets collapsed).

Our investing days would begin by reading the papers (not just one – they all say different things, don’t they) together and pointing out things that looked interesting. Not just the Business Section but whatever seemed like an important World event or a trend worth watching that would help us get ahead of the curve with our stock selections. This is pretty much what I do now isn’t it (thanks Grandpa!)? So, I will share with you what I consider the most…

Posted in Immediately available to public | Join Member's Chat - 310 Comments Here »

Oxen Nightly – March 3, 2011 – Stock Market Recap

by David Ristau - March 3rd, 2011 5:13 pm

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Straddle-Strategist Sells Flextronics Options

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - March 3rd, 2011 4:29 pm

Today’s tickers: FLEX, BMY, CQB & TSS

FLEX - Flextronics International, Ltd. – The Singapore-based provider of electronics manufacturing services popped up on our scanners after one big player sold a massive straddle in the July contract. Shares in Flextronics are currently up 5.0% at $8.14 as of 11:55am in New York. The sizable straddle play composed of a total of 49,000 FLEX options is almost on par with the overall level of open interest on the stock of 56,483 contracts. It looks like the investor is reeling in time-rich, in-the-money call premium as well as just out-of-the-money put premium, in the expectation that volatility will come off and shares in the name will remain around this level. The straddle-strategist sold 24,500 calls at the July $8.0 strike for a premium of $0.70 each, and sold 24,500 puts at the same strike for a premium of $0.60 apiece. Gross premium pocketed on the transaction amounts to $1.30 per contract. The trader keeps the full premium received on the sale as long as shares in FLEX settle at $8.00 at expiration in July. The short straddle strategy implies the investor at least sees shares trading within a certain range through expiration. In this case, the trader keeps some of the premium received and staves off losses unless shares in FLEX swing above the upper breakeven price of $9.30, or slip beneath the lower breakeven point at $6.70. The short stance in both call and put options expose the trader to potentially devastating losses in the event that shares work against him in the next few months. However, the investor need not hold the position to expiration. The trader may be able to buy back the straddle at an advantageous price at some point, benefiting from the erosion of time value as well as subsiding levels of implied volatility.…

Tags: BMY, CQB, FLEX, TSS

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Forward Thursday – Nothing Could be Drier than a Jolly Caucus Race!

by Phil - March 3rd, 2011 8:28 am

Forward, backward, inward, outward

Come and join the chase
Nothing could be drier
Than a jolly caucus race

Backward, forward, outward, inward
Bottom to the top
Never a beginning,
There can never be a stop

To skipping, hopping, tripping fancy free and gay
Started it tomorrow
But will finish yesterday

‘Round and ’round and ’round we go
Until forevermore
For once we were behind
But now we find we are be-

Foreward, backward, inward, outward

Wheeee – this is FUN!

Up we go again, getting close to 100 points pre-market – once again punishing anyone who was foolish enough not to buy the F’ing dip. How dare you short this market!!! Like the Wall Street Pelican in the cartoon says: "You HAVE to run with the others if you want to get dry." Of course it’s impossible for the participants (the bottom 90%) to get dry as they are not on the rock with a warm fire and simply keep getting wet over and over again but the Wall Street Pelican keeps playing his tune, giving himself a ready supply of dancing fish to snap up whenever he gets hungry.

Of course, for those who miss the subtlety of the Caucus race, Disney also puts in the story of the Walrus and the carpenter. "The time has come" the Walrus said, "to speak of many things. Of ships and shoes and ceiling wax and cabbages and kings."

The carpenter reminds me of the Tea Party, enabling their fat-cat (or fat-walrus) allies, only to get screwed over in the end. Walt Disney, don’t forget, had gone bankrupt early in his career and had also got screwed by big business when Universal Studios took control of "Oswald the Lucky Rabbit" – the original Bugs Bunny from Disney. "Alice Comedies" were and earlier work of Disney’s that culminated in the eventual release of Alice In Wonderland, with much of his early sarcasm and frustrations with the system still intact.

Yesterday, the part of the Walrus was played by Doctor Ben Bernanke, who’s Beige Book (see my commentary to Members) refers to "non-wage input costs" which have "increased for manufacturers and retailers in most Districts." Callooh! Callay! The Fed may as well be saying as they come up with brand-new words in order to…

Join Member's Chat - 252 Comments Here »

Oxen Nightly – March 2 – Stock Market Recap

by David Ristau - March 2nd, 2011 11:01 pm

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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

September 22nd, 2011 5:36 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...

Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

May 5th, 2011 5:10 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...

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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

March 12th, 2011 9:41 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...

Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

March 12th, 2011 9:35 am

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.

Click for a larger image

I've ...

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

March 12th, 2011 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm

Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

Swing trading portfolio

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

March 6th, 2011 8:22 am

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.

Download Newsletter 3/6/11

Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

more from SWW

Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

March 1st, 2011 9:42 am

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;nbsp;

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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Ilene is editor and affiliate program coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site (blogroll, archives, more). Contact Ilene to learn about our affiliate and content sharing programs.

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