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Posts Tagged ‘AIG’

Call Options Fly Off the Shelves at AIG

www.interactivebrokers.com

 Today’s tickers: AIG, CAT, DTV, WPI, PBR, DNR, V & M

AIG - American International Group, Inc. – The insurer’s shares rallied as much as 12.2% today to touch an intraday- and new 2-year high of $60.96 on news the firm secured $4.3 billion in bank credit lines. Mounting confidence in the insurance company along with the rising value of AIG shares inspired bullish options traders to purchase in- and out-of-the-money calls today. Weeklies were popular with options traders expecting to see shares end the year on a high note. Investors picked up more than 2,900 now in-the-money calls at the December ’31 $57.5 strike for an average premium of $0.93 each, and coveted upwards of 2,900 in-the-money call options at the higher December ’31 $60 strike at an average premium of $0.51 a-pop. Optimistic individuals also purchased some 1,300 call options at the December ’31 $65 strike for an average premium of $0.27 apiece. Options strategists looked to the January 2011 contract to place bullish bets, as well. Notable in-the-money call buying was observed here, as well as fresh interest in calls at the January 2011 $62.5 strike where more than 1,700 contracts were purchased for an average premium of $1.46 each. The sharp increase in demand for American International Group calls pushed the overall reading of options implied volatility on the stock higher by 25.2% to 50.30% in the final 15 minutes of the trading day.

CAT - Caterpillar, Inc. – It looks like some options investors expect the machinery maker’s shares to trend higher at the start of 2011. CAT-bulls are buying call options in the January 2011 contract this afternoon despite the 0.45% decline in the price of the underlying stock to $94.04. Options traders exchanged more than 7,200 calls at the January 2011 $95 strike by 3:10pm in New York trade. It looks like the majority, or approximately 5,300 of the call options, were purchased for an average premium of $1.58 a-pop. Call buyers make money if CAT’s shares rally more…
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Banzai7 Periodic Table of Wall St. Criminal Elements

Here’s another hilarious piece of artwork by William Banzai7.  It was previously reprinted at Zero Hedge, but I somehow missed it.  Click on the table to enlarge. – Ilene 

 Banzai7 Period Table of Criminal Elements



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Contrarian Player Constructs Three-Legged Bullish Spread on Sprint Nextel Corp.

www.interactivebrokers.com

Today’s tickers: S, WFC, LAMR, MGM, AMR, CASY & AIG

S - Sprint Nextel Corp. – A sizeable long-term bullish transaction involving 30,000 option contracts on Sprint Nextel Corp. indicates one optimistic player expects shares in the telecommunications company to rebound ahead of February 2011 expiration. Since reporting third-quarter earnings the morning of October 27, 2010, Sprint’s shares have fallen as much as 20.4% from a high of $4.85 on October 26 to today’s lowest value of $3.86. It looks like the 20% correction in the price of the underlying stock has made conditions favorable enough for this contrarian strategist to establish a relatively cheap bullish stance on Sprint. The trader enacted a three-legged bullish position, selling a chunk of put options in order to partially finance the purchase of a debit call spread. Sprint’s shares have recovered off their intraday low of $3.86 and are currently down 2.2% to stance at $4.01 as of 2:55 pm. The investor sold 10,000 puts at the February 2011 $3.5 strike for a premium of $0.21 each, purchased 10,000 now in-the-money calls at the February 2011 $4.0 strike at a premium of $0.43 per contract, and sold 10,000 calls at the February 2011 $5.0 strike for a premium of $0.16 apiece. Net premium paid to initiate the three-legged spread amounts to $0.06 per contract. The investor responsible for the transaction makes money if Sprint’s shares rally 1.25% over the current price of $4.01 to surpass the effective breakeven point at $4.06 by expiration day in February. The bullish trader will walk away with maximum potential profits of $0.94 per contract if Sprint’s shares surge 24.7% and trade above $5.00 ahead of expiration next year. The short stance in Feb. 2011 $3.5 strike puts implies the investor sees shares trading above $3.50, but also indicates his willingness to have 1 million shares of the underlying put to him at that price if the puts should land in-the-money by expiration. Interestingly, Sprint is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings…
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SIGTARP Calls Out Tim Geithner On Various Violations Including Data Manipulation, Lack Of Transparency, “Cruel” Cynicism, And Gross Incompetence

SIGTARP Calls Out Tim Geithner On Various Violations Including Data Manipulation, Lack Of Transparency, "Cruel" Cynicism, And Gross Incompetence

Neil BarofskyCourtesy of Tyler Durden

SigTarp Neil Barofsky has just released the most scathing critique of all the idiots in the administration, with a particular soft spot for Tim Geithner.

On the failure of TARP to increase lending:

As these quarterly reports to congress have well chronicled and as Treasury itself recently conceded in its acknowledgement that "banks continue to report falling loan balances," TARP has failed to "increase lending" with small businesses in particular unable to secured badly needed credit. Indeed, even now, overall lending continues to contract, despite the hundreds of billions of TARP dollars provided to banks with the express purpose to increase lending.

On TARP’s sole success of boosting Wall Street bonuses:

While large bonuses are returning to Wall Street, the nation’s poverty rate increased from 13.2% in 2008 to 14.3% in 2009, and for far too many, the recession has ended in name only.

On TARP’s failure in general:

Finally, the most specific of TARP’s Main Street goals, "preserving homeownership" has so far fallen woefully short, with TARP’s portion of the Administration’s mortgage modification program yielding only approximately 207,000 ongoing permanent modifications since TARP’s inception, a number that stands in stark contrast to the 5.5 million homes receiving foreclosure filings and more than 1.7 million homes that have been lost to foreclosure since January 2009.

On the Treasury’s scam in minimizing publicized AIG losses, and on Geithner as a Wall Street puppet whose actions are increasingly destroying public faith in the government:

While SIGTARP offers no opinion on the appropriateness or accuracy of the valuation contained in the Retrospective, we believe that the Retrospective fails to meet basic transparency standards by failing to disclose: (1) that the new lower estimate followed a change in the methodology that Treasury previously used to calculate expected losses on its AIG investment; and (2) that Treasury would be required by its auditors to use the older, and presumably less favorable, methodology in the official audited financials statements. To avoid potential confusion, Treasury should have disclosed that it had changed its valuation methodology and should have published a side-by-side comparison of its new numbers with what the projected losses would be under the auditor-approved methodology that Treasury had used previously and will


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Which Way Wednesday – So Long Summers!

Larry Summers is out!

Hopefully this portends a shake-up of the Administration’s economic policy but that will very much depend on who is appointed to replace him.  It is, once again, the economy stupid and Larry’s stint as Director of the National Economics Council has given us far too much of the same at a time where we really needed — change.  As Barry Rhitholtz points out:

He was one of the chief architects of the crisis. In addition to believing all of the usual foolishness about efficient markets, he bought into the radical deregulation arguments pushed by the free market absolutists.

Summers was Treasury Secretary when Glass Steagall was repealed. Instead of speaking out against the irresponsible Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999), he actively supported it. Instead of explaining to the public how Glass Steagall prevented Wall Street crises from spilling over into Main Street for 65 years, he rolled over for Citibank.  The repeal of Glass Steagall was not a cause of the crisis, but it allowed the net damage to be far, far worse than it would have otherwise been. And it was emblematic of the corporate takeover of the legislative process. For a fee (campaign donation) you could write your own regulations. How could that ever go wrong?

Even more ruinously, Summers oversaw the passage of Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000 that exempted financial derivatives from all regulatory oversight. The CFMA made the AIG collapse not only possible, but likely. It helped to set up both Lehman and Bear Stearns. CFMA allowed AIG FP to write over $3 trillion in derivatives, reserving precisely zero dollars in case an underwritten derivative needed to be paid.

Conservatives should not be celebrating the departure of Larry Summers, he was a guy who "played ball" with Big Business and it is very likely that his replacement will have a less friendly stance towards our Corporate Citizens, who made 60% of the income in this country in 2009 but paid just 6% of the taxes ($138Bn). 

Larry has to get out of town before the Administration goes after his meal-ticket and begins asking Big Business to pay their fair share, an issue that is very likely to shape the next election cycle.  The chart on the left is a measure of taxes paid in relation to GDP and you’ll notice that corporations…
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Goldman Sachs: Bullies on the Block

Goldman Sachs: Bullies on the Block

Courtesy of Janet TavakoliPresident, Tavakoli Structured Finance

Originally published in Huffington Post 

Arianna Huffington’s new book, Third World America: How Our Politicians Are Abandoning the Middle Class and Betraying the American Dream speaks for the disenfranchised middle class: Americans that have lost wages, lost jobs, lost value in homes, and lost substantial value in investments and retirement funds. The U.S. middle class is being scammed out of existence. Wall Street and large corporate special interests — including energy companies, large financial institutions, drug companies, and the large military industrial complex — effectively bought Washington.

For most Americans, the Great Recession never ended, and for many of the 14.9 million unemployed Americans, it’s a 21st century Depression. Yet in December 2009, Larry Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, told ABC news: "Today, everybody agrees that the recession is over, and the question is what the pace of the expansion is going to be."

The recession was over for bailed-out banks paying billions in bonuses. Taxpayers fund Wall Street with nearly zero-cost loans, and Congress changed accounting rules in April 2009 so that Wall Street firms could hide losses to create the illusion of "big profits," as they try to fill the gaping holes in their balance sheets.

Money Cartel’s Yes Men

The money cartel is as dangerous as the Mexican drug cartel. Its weapons of choice are taxpayer subsidized funds for swarms of Washington lobbyists, "money jobs" for politically connected yes men, and lucrative positions for former regulators and the law firms that hire them. Wall Street is winning the class war, and taxpayers supplied the arms.

[White House Chief of Staff] Rahm Emanuel famously declared, "Rule one: Never allow a crisis to go


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SOME BAILOUT QUESTIONS FED CZAR ‘BERNANKE THE MAGNIFICENT’ STILL HASN’T ANSWERED (BEATDOWN)

MUST READ: Some Bailout Questions FED Czar ‘Bernanke The Magnificent’ STILL Hasn’t Answered (Beatdown)

Courtesy of The Daily Bail 

Fed Chairman Bernanke

Ben Bernanke

Hank Paulson Ben Bernanke Bailout TARP Cartoon

Why were bank bondholders made whole, while taxpayers got shafted?  That’s the most important question of all, yet no one has ever asked him.

Two exceptional editorials from the WSJ earlier this week.  Reprinted with permission.

On the key facts behind the bailouts of 2008, regulators have stonewalled the public, the press and even the inspector general of the Troubled Asset Relief Program. On Wednesday, we’ll find out if they can also stonewall the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.

Chairman Phil Angelides and his panel will begin two days of hearings on the subject of "Too Big to Fail," featuring testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair.  Across bailouts from Bear Stearns to AIG, the government has refused to release its analysis of the "systemic risks" that compelled it to mount unprecedented interventions into the financial system with taxpayer money.  Two years after the crisis, Mr. Angelides and his colleagues should finally let the sun shine on this critical period of our economic history.

A year ago we told you about former FDIC official Vern McKinley, who has made a series of Freedom of Information Act requests.  He wanted to know what Fed governors meant when they said a Bear Stearns failure would cause a "contagion."  This term was used in the minutes of the Fed meeting at which the central bank discussed plans by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to finance Bear’s sale to J.P. Morgan Chase.  The minutes contained no detail on how exactly the fall of Bear would destroy America.

He also requested minutes of the FDIC board meeting at which regulators approved financing for a Citigroup takeover of Wachovia.  To provide this assistance, the board had to invoke the "systemic risk" exception in the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, and it therefore had to assert that such assistance was necessary for the health of the financial system.  Yet days later, Wachovia cut a better deal to sell itself to Wells Fargo, instead of Citi.  So how necessary was the assistance?

The regulators have been giving Mr. McKinley the Heisman, but two weeks ago federal Judge Ellen Segal Huvelle made the FDIC show her the Wachovia documents. She is still…
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Jobless Thursday – America’s Infrastructure Crisis

What a disaster!

Not only are our students failing to keep up with the rest of the World but America is close to getting a failing grade in Infrastructure.  That’s right, what was once the World’s mightiest and proudest economy, this once great nation of builders has been given an overall grade of D in the American Society of Civil Engineers report on our Infrastructure.

The 2009 Grades include: Aviation (D), Bridges (C), Dams (D), Drinking Water (D-), Energy (D+), Hazardous Waste (D), Inland Waterways (D-), Levees (D-), Public Parks and Recreation (C-), Rail (C-), Roads (D-), Schools (D), Solid Waste (C+), Transit (D), and Wastewater (D-).  Awful?  Shameful?  How about DANGEROUS?  Deadly even…

For one thing, The number of high hazard dams—dams that, should they fail, pose a significant risk to human life—has increased by more than 3,000 just since 2007, when there were "just" 1,000 dams at risk and 3,000 to pro actively maintain but the administration refused to fund the project, now the costs have tripled as the situation deteriorates but that’s nothing compared to what happens if just a few of them break completely.  1,819 dams are now in the "high hazard" category and, with the current budget, for every one damn that is reparied, two more become an emergency.  

In urban areas, roadway congestion tops 40 percent.  According to the report, decades of underfunding and inattention have jeopardized the ability of our nation’s infrastructure to support our economy and facilitate our way of life.  At risk of catastrophic failure besides the dams (including levees) are things like our drinking water, sewage systems, bridges, waterways, rail lines, airports, roadways (especially elevated ones) and, of course, our entire electrical grid.  Additionally, 7 Billion gallons of clean drinking water is lost every day through leaking pipes – that’s 23 gallons per citizen per day WASTED for want of $11Bn in repairs – don’t bother worrying about it, the last Administration wouldn’t fund it in 2001 or 2006 so why bother now – 10 Trillion gallons later? 

The ASCE calculates a 5-year $2.2Tn investment is needed to address the situation, that’s $500Bn (25%) more than it was 5-years ago, when they released their last report and nothing was done by the previous administration.  So, rather than having invested in America, putting people to work and improving EVERYONE’s way of life, we spent over $1Tn fighting a war, another $600Bn a year on our regular military operations and gave over $1Tn worth of taxe breaks…
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AIG: Res Ipsa Loquitur

AIG: Res Ipsa Loquitur

Courtesy of Roddy Boyd, The Financial Investigator 

Scales

Editor’s Note: A graf was added describing the signal contribution of The Wall Street Journal’s Serena Ng and Liam Pleven in explaining the Securities Lending unit in a February 5, 2009 article. Rather than fold it into the graf where I describe how Miles Weiss and Andrew Ross Sorkin advanced the story, I chose to break it out seperately. Accountability and transparency, to say nothing of accuracy, is central to enterprise reporting and when I fall short, I seek to immediately remedy the situation.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s document release last Wednesday doesn’t offer the curious an answer to a question that hasn’t received much play since AIG’s collapse in September 2008.

The question is: “How Did AIG really collapse?”

Not: “How did they get in trouble?” Or: “Who is to Blame?”

But rather, what led to a firm that had a AA- rating, around $160-billion in market cap and $14-billion in profits–with real cash generation capacity to boot– in fiscal 2006 effectively go out of business in September 2008?

The answer is not Goldman Sachs.

It would be exceptionally easy–for no one more so than me since as I am in the process of writing a book on the collapse of AIG called Fatal Risk–if it had though.

The picture painted of Goldman Sachs, especially from legislators in Washington D.C. and the media–nowhere more so than the business desk of the New York Times–centers largely on the now infamous series of swaps that one of Goldman’s proprietary trading desks entered into with AIG as central to its collapse. In this view, Goldman’s meticulous enforcement of so-called credit support agreements and the billions of dollars in collateral calls forced upon AIG’s Financial Products unit is seen as fatal.

Yet months of investigation into the matter suggest a different answer: What killed AIG was much more likely the financial and managerial collapse within AIG Global Investment Corporation’s securities lending program.

The management of the unit, under Win Neuger, took a portfolio that had been throwing off about four basis points of profit since inception in the 1990s and in 2005 began imposing a 30-basis point profit target. Outside of the sheer impossibility of improving margins 7.5 times, the practical hurdles to obtaining creditworthiness and liquidity were formidable. So daunting, in fact, that creditworthiness and liquidity were tossed out and a…
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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw  “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...



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Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...



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Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...



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Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.


Click for a larger image

I've ...



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Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

 Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...



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OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options. 

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader 

Swing trading portfolio

 

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

Stock World Weekly

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly:  Illusion Based on a Fantasy 

Comments welcome... share your thoughts. 

Download Newsletter 3/6/11


Stock World Weekly archives here >

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Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX).  MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price.  Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill.  I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well.  Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1.  PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

 

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB).  It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...



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