Weekly Wrap-Up – The Return of Fundamentals?
by Phil - September 27th, 2009 8:23 am
Fundamentals don’t matter, until they do – then they matter a lot…
We had a fantastic week because we stuck to the fundamentals and stayed short – even though it was a very painful path to follow. In last week’s wrap-up, facing the never-ending market climb on low volume I had said "I am trying to get bullish, really I am," and I was trying to find bullish plays for members - but we still ended up bearish for the week with a lot of bearish plays being added and thank goodness as it gave us a fantastic week this week!
Just following the plays I mentioned in last week’s wrap-up would have been great as we had SKF bullish at $21 (now $26), DIA bearish at $98 (now $96.74), FAZ bullish at $16 (now $22.12), OIH bearish at $120 (now $114.75), SRS bullish at $8.50 (now $9.93) – and those were just from Thursday and Friday, last week was very active and very successful. I had been quoting Samuel Jackson to highlight my difficulty joining the bullish analysts and I closed last week’s comments by saying: "It really is hard to be the shepherd in this market as I see wolves everywhere, waiting to pounce on the flock as the mainstream media leads them off to slaughter. Or maybe (hopefully) I’m just being paranoid and everything’s fine…"
Monday I led off the week with my concerns about the spread of the flu, as the season is upon us. That gave us 4 bullish (but hedged) plays on SVA, BCRX and CAH (2), none of which are performing so far so all of which are still good entries, especially CAH who got whacked by a DB downgrade on Thursday yet paid back $1Bn in debt on Friday and still look very good long-term.
I had an early look at the G20s "Framework for Sustainable and Balanced Growth," and our conclusion was that, although a good plan, it sure wasn’t something the markets should be all pumped up about as stability was not going to grow us into the bullish valuations that our stocks had already risen to. I warned members that the media was misinterpreting/misrepresenting this report saying: "You can bet though, that "THEY" are acting on this information and they will be SELLSELLSELLING, as they did on Friday afternoon even as the MSM pump-monkeys continue to tell you to BUYBUYBUY as if, not only has the economy fully recovered –…
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Pharma’s Green Shoots
by Phil - September 15th, 2009 6:43 am
Courtesy of Pharmboy
Hello all! Not a bad month since our first plays in the Pharma and Biotech space. Phil summed up last week the positions and the nice profits on our picks, and I think it is time for a few more companies to focus on for our portfolios (e.g., 100K), after all, it’s about tilling the soil and making some money on our Pharm….
First, the healthcare debate is going to rage on after the holiday weekend, and I am expecting this sector to take some lumps with our good ride up. I would expect the economies of scale to weigh in, as even though price may be lower, picking up more coverage (patients) is what it is all about. Those dependent upon high priced biologics may be the ones that take the biggest hit, as the costs are quite different than popping a pill every day for a few $$$. Just things to ponder and we will react as developments take shape on the horizon.
Mid-summer and early fall are the times for the biotech and pharma segments to provide the greatest returns. I cannot decide if it is the cyclical nature or if more clinical data are being released during this time. Looking at XBI and XPH over a five year period, the biotech fund (XBI) has done a bit better on overall return, but the two charts follow the same overall pattern. Thus, we are entering the final stretch for this sector, and should be prepared for a slight pullback during the holidays.
5 yr XBI and XPH Chart Here >>
Now, on to the good stuff….
Shire PLC (SPHGY), founded in 1986, aims to be a market leader in meeting the needs of specialist physicians in targeted segments. Its core therapeutic focus areas are attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; within central nervous system, CNS) and increasingly biopharmaceuticals that address specific genetic disorders. Consistent with this strategy, Shire has been made a number of important acquisitions, including the 2007 purchase of New River, the developer of Vyvanse (the successor for Adderall XR ADHD treatment; and a series of biopharmaceutical acquisitions, following the Transkaryotic Therapies entry acquisition in 2005. In 2008, Shire acquired German biotech company Jerini, which brought along Firazyr, a treatment for hereditary angioedema.
Recently, Shire has sent its treatment for Gaucher disease, an alternative to the Genzyme (GENZ) drug Cerezyme, to the FDA for approval.
The Company focuses its drug research and…
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A Little Cautious Optimism at Arena
by Andrew Wilkinson - August 26th, 2009 5:20 pm
Today’s tickers: ARNA, XLF, EEM, FXI, ARM, MAR & MYGN
ARNA - The clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company received a downgrade to ‘sell’ at EVA Dimensions this morning, perhaps prompting bearish put buying which we observed in the October contract. However, a contrarian trader took an opposing stance on the stock by utilizing puts at the same strike, albeit in a different manner. Shares have declined less than 0.5% to stand at the current price of $4.87. Plain-vanilla put buying earlier in the session matched the bearish downgrade. Approximately 10,000 puts were purchased at the October 4.0 strike price for an about 95 cents apiece. Traders holding the puts will begin to amass profits if shares of ARNA fall beneath the breakeven price of $3.05. An investor with a glass-half-full outlook on Arena chose to purchase a chunk of 10,000 puts at the same strike for a dollar a-pop. However, these put options were married to shares of the underlying stock because the trader is hoping for shares to appreciate. He has strategically used put options to protect his long stock position in case the value of the shares decreases ahead of expiration. – Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. –
XLF - Shares of the financials ETF have surrendered less than 1% during the trading session to stand at $14.53. A long-term short strangle was positioned in the January 2011 contract by an investor expecting lower price volatility through expiration. It appears that the trader shed 8,000 puts at the January 13 strike price for a premium of 1.80 each and sold 8,000 calls at the higher January 17 strike for 1.40 apiece. The ‘strangler’ receives a gross premium of 3.20 per contract for a total of $2,560,000. He will make off like a bandit with his chunk of change as long as shares remain within the parameters of the strike prices described through expiration. The short put/call positions expose him to potential losses if the price of the XLF breaches the effective breakeven points. Losses begin to accrue if shares rise through $20.20 or fall beneath $9.80 by expiration. We note that this individual does not need to remain short through January in 2011. He may choose to take profits by making a closing purchase for a net price that is less than 3.20, or the premium received on today’s transaction. – Financial Select Sector SPDR –
EEM - A large-volume put spread was initiated by…
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Broadcom bears use put spread and call sales
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 30th, 2009 4:26 pm
Today’s tickers: BRCM, BNI, EMC, RIO, GM, VIX, XLF, BAC & ARNA
BRCM Broadcom Corp. Class A – Shares are currently off by 3% to $20.01 for Broadcom, which is engaged in semiconductors for wired and wireless communications. Options activity was largely contained to the May contract. One investor established a put spread by purchasing 7,500 puts at the May 20 strike for 2.00 each, and selling 7,500 puts at the May 18 strike for a premium of 1.15 apiece. The net cost of the trade amounts to 85 cents and yields a maximum potential profit of 1.15 if shares fall to $18.00 by expiration. Further evidence of investor bearishness on BRCM came in the form of 5,000 sold calls at the May 20 strike price for a 2.00 premium per contract. Apparently investors agree that, at least in the near-term, the current $20.01 share price is due for a decline. Option implied volatility has jumped from Friday’s reading of 64% to the current value of 70%.
BNI Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation – When you need your share price to rise in the face of a 4.3% equity market decline you could do one of two things. First, have Goldman Sachs upgrade the company or second, find someone to suggest out loud that your shares might be bought by legendary investor, Warren Buffett. Sadly, neither seems to have worked for the operator of one of the largest railroad networks in North America, which has seen its shares dip slightly by 2% to stand at $60.71. BNI was upgraded to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ at Goldman Sachs amid rumors about a possible purchase of the company by Berkshire Hathaway. Option traders reflected the bullish upgrade by purchasing calls in the April contract. At the April 65 strike price 3,300 calls were scooped up for an average price of 1.50, while at the higher April 70 strike more than 3,200 calls were bought for a 55 cent premium. In order for the April 70 calls to turn profits for optimistic traders, shares would need to rally by 16% to the breakeven share price of $70.55 by expiration.
EMC EMC Corporation – The IT support company has experienced a share price decline of about 3.5% to $11.17. EMC edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after some large volume trades were initiated in the April and May contracts. It…
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Earthlink calendar spreader maintains pessimistic stance
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 16th, 2009 5:41 pm
Today’s tickers: ELNK, HBC, CECO, XLE, C, CMCSK, SWKS & ARNA
ELNK Earthlink , Inc. – The internet service provider has experienced a 5% decline in shares today to $6.29. ELNK popped onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor initiated a calendar roll. At the March 7.5 strike price 5,200 puts were sold for a premium of 95 cents each, while at the April 7.5 strike price 5,200 puts were purchased for 1.15 per contract. Maybe this investor sees Earthlink continuing to fall through next month, and therefore has rolled his in-the-money long-put position previously established in March into the next month’s contract.
HBC HSBC Holdings Plc ADS – As with many other financials today, shares of HBC have rallied 4% to $27.05. One trade of interest occurred at the March 30 strike price where an investor appears to have purchased a straddle by picking up 7,500 calls for 15 cents apiece and 7,500 puts for 3.20 per contract. You may be thinking, given where shares are with today’s rally – why on earth would someone pay a combined premium of 3.35 in the hope that shares of the bank swing to either breakeven point located at $33.35 on the upside and at $26.65 on the downside? While it is possible that this investor’s motivation for the trade is to see profits amass on falling share price, we believe there may be a different explanation. Perhaps this trader had previously sold the options leaving him short and now he is buying back the contracts in order to close out his short position. It appears that about 7,500 of the existing open interest for calls and puts at the March 30 strike was built up between February 5th and 6th. Thus, we propose that this investor may have originally sold the straddle in February and is not buying it back before the March contract expires on Friday.
CECO Career Education Corporation – Shares of the global education company have fallen 12% to $20.24. CECO is an on-ground provider of education at various levels and also has a significant presence in online education. The company edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor established plays in the March and April contracts. At the March 22.5 strike price it appears that one investor initiated a credit spread by purchasing 5,000 calls for 38 cents apiece…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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