It is this lack of global aggregate demand – resulting from too much debt in parts of the global economy and not enough in others – that is the essence of the problem, which only economists with names beginning in R seem to understand (there is no R in PIMCO no matter how much I want to extend the metaphor, and yes, Paul Rugman fits the description as well!). If policymakers could act in unison and smoothly transition maxed-out indebted consumer nations into future producers, while simultaneously convincing lightly indebted developing nations to consume more, then our predicament would be manageable. They cannot. G-20 Toronto meetings aside, the world is caught up as it usually is in an “every nation for itself” mentality, with China taking its measured time to consume and the U.S. refusing to acknowledge its necessity to invest in goods for export.
Even if your last name doesn’t begin with R, the preceding explanation is all you need to know to explain what is happening to the markets, the global economy, and perhaps your own wobbly-legged standard of living in recent years. Consumption when brought forward must be financed, and that financing is a two-way bargain between borrower and creditor. When debt levels become too high, lenders balk and even lenders of last resort – the sovereigns, the central banks, the supranational agencies – approach limits beyond which private enterprise’s productivity itself is threatened. We have arrived at a New Normal where, despite the introduction of 3 billion new consumers over the past several decades in “Chindia” and beyond, there is a lack of global aggregate demand or perhaps an inability or unwillingness to finance it. Slow growth in the developed world, insufficiently high levels of consumption in the emerging world, and seemingly inexplicable low total returns on investment portfolios – bonds and stocks – lie ahead. Stop whispering (and start shouting) the words “New Normal” or perhaps begin to pronounce your last name with an RRRRRRRRRRRR. Our global economy, our use of debt, and our financial markets have changed – not our alphabet or dictionary.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner had me laughing out loud over his statement yesterday in Beijing where he took part in the two-day U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue.
"European leaders face the difficult challenge of trying to restore sustainability to an unsustainable system."
Yes Tim, that challenge would indeed be "difficult", in fact, impossible by definition.
It is a contradiction in terms and thus logically impossible to suggest it is possible to "sustain the unsustainable". Geithner needs math lessons or logic lessons, most likely both.
Sovereign Default Inevitable
With Geithner focused on the impossible, others have a more practical outlook. For example, Bill Gross and Noble Prize winning economist Robert Mundell say Sovereign Default May Prove Inevitable for Nations.
Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross said restrictive lending rates and austerity measures that slow growth may leave default as the “only way out” for some sovereign borrowers dealing with mounting debt and deficits.
“Credit and equity market vigilantes are wondering if in many cases sovereigns haven’t already gone too far and that the only way out might be via default or the more politely used phrase of ‘restructuring,’” Gross wrote in his June investment outlook today on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s website. “It may not be possible for a country to escape a debt crisis by reducing deficits.”
“At the now-restrictive yields of Libor plus 300-350 basis points being imposed by the EU and the IMF alike, there is no reasonable scenario which would allow Greece to ‘grow’ its way out,” said Gross, co-chief investment officer of Pimco and manager of the world’s biggest mutual fund.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Mundell said reworking debt may be “inevitable” for one or two countries that share Europe’s common currency in the next five years.
“Debt restructuring may be needed for one or two fiscally weak euro members,” he said today at a conference in Warsaw. “In five years it may be inevitable, but it doesn’t mean euro deconstruction, it just means debt restructuring.”
Geithner Pleads Bazooka Be Fired
As noted above, it is not only “difficult” it is impossible by definition to achieve the unachievable, thus extremely foolish to even attempt such a maneuver.
However, logical impossibilities did not stop Geithner’s plea to fire the $1 trillion
Our favorite bond pimp is in some mood this month!
Maybe it’s because, despite PimpCo’s best efforts, they failed to tank the markets last week but Gross starts his March newsletter off with this harsh chart but his words are even harsher - saying of cocktail parties:
I suppose the parties wouldn’t be so bad if there was something original to be said, or if “you” had a genuine interest in “me” as opposed to “you,” but let’s face it folks, no one does. The only reason any of us really cares about cocktail conversations is to quickly redirect someone else’s stories into autobiographies that we assume to be instant bestsellers if only in print. If not, if the doe-eyed listener seems simply fascinated by what you’re saying, you can bet there’s a requested personal favor coming when you finally shut up. “Say Bill, I was wondering if you knew somebody at…that could…” Yeah right! But, as my chart shows, 90 seconds into a typical conversation, no one gives a damn about you and your problems – maybe those shoes and that dreadful eye shadow you’re wearing, but not anything audible coming out of your mouth.
Yow Bill! Tell us how you really feel… After telling us how appalling he finds it to endure 90 seconds of our time at a party, Bill then asks for his own 90 seconds to teach us about economics. I’m not going to edit as it is about 90 seconds worth but after that opening – don’t you find it kind of hard to read what he has to say without looking for a place to throw a virtual punch?
To begin with, let’s get reacquainted with the fundamental economic problem of our age – lack of global aggregate demand – and how we got to where we are today:
(1) Twenty years of accelerated globalization incrementally undermined the real incomes of most developed countries’ workers/citizens, forcing governments to promote leverage and asset price appreciation in order to fill in what is known as an “aggregate demand” gap – making sure that consumers keep buying things. When the private sector assumed too much debt and asset prices bubbled (think subprimes and houses, or dotcoms/NASDAQ 5000), American-style capitalism with its leverage, deregulation, and religious belief in lower and lower taxes reached a dead end. There was a willingness to keep on consuming, there just wasn’t
The bond king’s trade recommendation: the yield convergence trade between the guarantor nations and the guarantee nations. Additionlly, expect a convergence between government spreads and agency/corporate yields. Is this a sea change in the way credit is approached? Somewhat yes; then again, even though he is ostensibly absolutely right, haven’t many (ahem LTCM) already tried this and failed?
I haven’t gone to a cocktail party in over 10 years. Granted, perpetually watching Seinfeld reruns on Friday and Saturday nights makes for a dull boy, but the alternative is excruciating. Uh, which would I prefer – solitary confinement or water boarding? I lean strongly in the direction of a warm bed and peace as opposed to a glass full of tinkling ice cubes and a room resonating with high-decibel blather. I suppose the parties wouldn’t be so bad if there was something original to be said, or if “you” had a genuine interest in “me” as opposed to “you,” but let’s face it folks, no one does. The only reason any of us really cares about cocktail conversations is to quickly redirect someone else’s stories into autobiographies that we assume to be instant bestsellers if only in print. If not, if the doe-eyed listener seems simply fascinated by what you’re saying, you can bet there’s a requested personal favor coming when you finally shut up. “Say Bill, I was wondering if you knew somebody at…that could…” Yeah right! But, as my chart shows, 90 seconds into a typical conversation, no one gives a damn about you and your problems – maybe those shoes and that dreadful eye shadow you’re wearing, but not anything audible coming out of your mouth.
During that unbearable minute-and-a-half, however, you’re likely to have covered some of the following topics:
Where are you from? (If it’s not a place where I’ve been or have a distant second cousin – don’t care.)
How’s the family? (If Johnnie is in advanced placement courses and my kids aren’t – don’t care. Don’t care about your kids’ soccer games either or that upcoming wedding.)
James Carville, the famed political strategist once said:
” I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President, or the pope, or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”
In today’s world, the bond market runs through Bill Gross, the Founder and CEO of PIMCO. The soft spoken Californian, former professional blackjack player and billionaire, oversees over one trillion (with a T) dollars in assets under management. He has been referred to as the 4th branch of the U.S. government and with the bond market under his thumb it’s not a stretch to say that he is the most powerful man in the United States.
His current outlook for the U.S. economy is not particularly rosy (read his latest outlook here). Gross recently coined the term “the new normal” when talking about the post-crisis economy. He believes the global economy has been effectively reset as investors take on less risk, de-leverage the mountain of debt, regulation hampers growth and de-globalization takes hold. He believes this is best presented by the low expectations in the bond market where 10 year treasuries, at 3.5%, are still positioned for very meager economic growth. He says we are entering a sustained period of low growth and low inflation.
A year ago, Gross was seen as a co-conspirator of sorts in the government bailouts. As the U.S. government began to take stakes in financial institutions Gross jumped in head first with them. He piled his firm’s assets into the riskiest of risky assets in what turned out to be a brilliantly simple bet – the U.S. government won’t let these assets fail therefore, we are wise to invest along side them. It couldn’t have worked out much better for the bond king. He is rumored to have netted $1.7B alone on the day of the Fannie and Freddie bailouts. Some saw it as talking his book and asking for his own bailout. Others see it as unrivaled power and brilliance.
Gross believes the U.S. economic recovery has been largely based on the stimulus and that the economy could suffer a relapse when the…
The following is a guest post from FirstAdopter.com, a site covering investing and consumer technology news:
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There’s a lot of conspiracy theories out there about how the government is manipulating the stock market upwards (I’m looking at you Zero Hedge) by buying stock futures, etc. However a light bulb went off in my head after I read this Time magazine interview with Pimco’s Bill Gross on how simple the explanation is.
But secondly, there’s a ripple affect. Just speaking about Pimco’s general portfolio strategy, we’ve sold our agency mortgage securities, Fannie and Freddie, in the billions to the willing check of the Fed. They’re buying a trillion dollars of them, or have over the past 9-12 months, and so we sold them a lot of ours. Now, what did we do with the money? We bought Treasuries, we bought corporate bonds, and so the bond markets in general have benefited, as have stocks because this available money effectively flows through the capital markets. So it’s a trillion-and-a-half dollar check that won’t be there as the Fed withdraws from the market. How that affects the markets, I just don’t know. I’m not eagerly anticipating the answer, but I think it holds some surprises in 2010, not just in mortgage securities but stocks as well.
So basically Bill Gross, the largest fund manager in the world, explains it to us. The Fed has been buying $1.5 trillion worth of securities from financial firms at unnatural supply/demand and some would say inflated prices, who then use this big pile of money they get from selling to the Fed to buy other stuff like corporate bonds and stocks. This is $1.5 trillion that did not exist before. It is printed money that is flowing through the financial capital markets lifting all boats. A simple explanation for the markets’ rise.
To prove this let’s look at the timing of Fed mortgage backed security buy program announcements. In 2008 the SP500 bottomed on November 21st, 2008. I remember things being very scary then. The Fed then announced their first $500 billion mortgage backed security (MBS) buy program on November 25th, 2008 (Link). The market then rallied 25%+ off
In a pathological example of nearly clinical hypocrisy, PIMCO’s Bill Gross yesterday dedicated 4 meandering essay pages full of polemical ramblings to the characterization of America’s sad political and financial hybrid reality. Yet the billionaire’s saddest message is precisely the self-deluded aggrandizement that Gross decries yet willfully takes advantage of every single day. Because after bemoaning the fate of America’s broken political system, and ridiculing the Federal Reserve’s kleptocratic-friendly ways, it is precisely people like the PIMCO chairman that are most guilty of taking advantage of every single loophole presented to them, even as they criticize just this activity. This, beyond all the petty trivialities that Gross discusses, is precisely what is most wrong with America – at this point everyone, and especially Mr. Gross, knows too well that the wealth transfer from the middle class to the elite 1% of society will not end until such time as America itself defaults. Yet having the very people that benefit the most from this, write non-apologetic letters in which they criticize the very system that lets them walk home every day with an extra zero in their bank account simply due to their special connections within this very broken system, is beyond reproach.
Gross writes:
Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people… What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply.
Well, Gross should know all about special interests and bribery. A casual check indicates that the PIMCO boss himself donated $6,900 to future present Barack Obama in 2008, and another $4,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign committee. What was the IRR on that investment Mr. Gross? Just how many special Treasury JVs is PIMCO part of these days, and how much taxpayer money ends up in the Newport Beach bond manager daily, to simply trade side-by-side with the Federal Reserve and front-ru(i)n the broader investing public? Was Obama the cheapest politician you could buy?
We were so appalled with the result of this query that we decided against checking further back in time to see just what the price of bribery for prior presidents was. However, we did check how much of a "special interest" PIMCO itself is –…
In a pathological example of nearly clinical hypocrisy, PIMCO’s Bill Gross yesterday dedicated 4 meandering essay pages full of polemical ramblings to the characterization of America’s sad political and financial hybrid reality. Yet the billionaire’s saddest message is precisely the self-deluded aggrandizement that Gross decries yet willfully takes advantage of every single day. Because after bemoaning the fate of America’s broken political system, and ridiculing the Federal Reserve’s kleptocratic-friendly ways, it is precisely people like the PIMCO chairman that are most guilty of taking advantage of every single loophole presented to them, even as they criticize just this activity. This, beyond all the petty trivialities that Gross discusses, is precisely what is most wrong with America – at this point everyone, and especially Mr. Gross, knows too well that the wealth transfer from the middle class to the elite 1% of society will not end until such time as America itself defaults. Yet having the very people that benefit the most from this, write non-apologetic letters in which they criticize the very system that lets them walk home every day with an extra zero in their bank account simply due to their special connections within this very broken system, is beyond reproach.
Gross writes:
Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people… What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply.
Well, Gross should know all about special interests and bribery. A casual check indicates that the PIMCO boss himself donated $6,900 to future present Barack Obama in 2008, and another $4,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign committee. What was the IRR on that investment Mr. Gross? Just how many special Treasury JVs is PIMCO part of these days, and how much taxpayer money ends up in the Newport Beach bond manager daily, to simply trade side-by-side with the Federal Reserve and front-ru(i)n the broader investing public? Was Obama the cheapest politician you could buy?
We were so appalled with the result of this query that we decided against checking further back in time to see just what the price of bribery for prior presidents was. However, we did check how much of a "special interest" PIMCO itself is –…
Pimco managing director Bill Gross not only oversees the world’s biggest bond fund, his views often sway markets. In a late December interview with TIME’s John Curran, Gross pointed to the second half of 2010 as a period when investors large and small will reckon with a new reality of poor economic growth and a Federal Reserve that is hard pressed to offer much help.
TIME: Where do you see the economy going over the next 6 to 12 months? Bill Gross: The economy should be relatively strong in the first half of 2010 then weaken in the second half. That’s not to say we’ll return to recession but we’ll see weakness as opposed to a continuation of what will probably be a decent first half.
What will make the first half of 2010 so good?
The first half will be dominated by government stimulus and by inventory accumulation or a lack of [inventory] liquidation among businesses. I expect nothing from consumer [spending] and nothing really from housing or really any of the standard cyclical leading sectors. It’s hard to put a number on GDP growth rates, but let’s say 4% in the first half and then 2% in the second half, which would basically call for some additional help.
You’re talking about a second shot of federal stimulus?
Yes, something else is probably needed if the [government's] thrust is really reducing unemployment below double digits and re-normalizing the economy.
What does this say about the Federal Reserve’s hopes to start pulling its added liquidity out of the markets, either by raising short-term rates or just getting out of buying bonds, which has been keeping long rates low?
I think the Fed’s statements suggest that they really want to exit in some fashion from the buying program. The first step in that direction, logically, would be to stop buying and our sense is that they’re at least going to try that. But based on our forecasts for the second half of the year they may have to re-initiate it, and that will be difficult to do once they stop because it then becomes a political hot potato.
All that said, I think they’ll stop buying mortgage agency securities, and the trillion-and-a-half dollar check that’s been written over…
Quixotic journeys often make for great literature, but by definition are rarely productive. I am, after all, referring to windmills here – not their 21st century creation, but their 17th century chasing. Futility, not productivity, was the ultimate fate of Cervantes’ man from La Mancha. So it is with hesitation, although quixotic obsession, that I plunge headlong into a discussion of American politics, healthcare legislation, resultant budget deficits and – finally – their potential effect on financial markets. There will be windmills aplenty in the next few pages and not much good can come of these opinions or my tilting in their direction. Still, I mount my steed, lance in hand, and ride forward.
Question: What has become of the American nation? Conceived with the vision of liberty and justice for all, we have descended in the clutches of corporate and other special interests to a second world state defined by K Street instead of Independence Square. Our government doesn’t work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people. Washington consistently stoops to legislate 10,000-page perversions of healthcare, regulatory reform, defense, and budgetary mandates overflowing with earmarks that serve a monied minority as opposed to an all-too-silent majority. You don’t have to be Don Quixote to believe that legislators – and Presidents – often do not work for the benefit of their constituents: A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported that over 65% of Americans trust their government to do the right thing “only some of the time” and a stunning 19% said “never.” What most politicians apparently are working for is to perpetuate their power – first via district gerrymandering, and then second by around-the-clock campaigning financed by special interest groups. If, by chance, they’re ever voted out of office, they have a home just down the street – at K Street – with six-figure incomes as a starting wage.
What amazes me most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply. Public records show that combined labor, insurance, big pharma and related corporate interests spent just under $500 million last year on healthcare lobbying (not much of which went to politicians) for what is likely to be
Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card
by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff
Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.
August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.
Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.
But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”
Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...
Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.
The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.
"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.
He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...
The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...
Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.
Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...
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February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.
Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011
 
Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
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Our favorite bond pimp is in some mood this month!
To begin with, let’s get reacquainted with the fundamental economic problem of our age – lack of global aggregate demand – and how we got to where we are today:
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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