Monday Market Movement – More Monetary Madness
by Phil - November 1st, 2010 12:45 am
Get ready for a crazy week!
We have data this week, we have the Fed and we have elections and yes, we have a worthless currency that’s worth less and less every day. This morning, China’s PMI hit 54.7 for October, up from September’s 53.8 and indicating that China’s decision to raise rates had no impact on growth. India found this thrilling and went up 1.4% (as of midnight) but the Nikkei flatlined because China’s gains are Japan’s losses at the moment as the Dollar failed to maintain an early pop to just 81.2 and fell back more than half a point in Asian trading.
The yen’s moves have been "excessive" recently, a Japanese government official said Monday, but he declined to comment on whether Tokyo authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market earlier in the day to knock the currency lower. Exporters remained under selling pressure, with Canon off 0.6% and Toyota Motor down 1.1%. Honda Motor lost 3.4% despite reporting solid second-quarter earnings as the automaker cut its fiscal second-half net profit outlook. Sony shares fell 2.2% as news that the electronics giant had returned a net profit in the July-September was offset by concerns over pressure on earnings at its television division.
"The soft U.S. dollar suggests that the market is still gearing up for a sizeable QE this week," said Greg Gibbs, currency strategist at RBS in Sydney. In Seoul, the market was modestly higher but investors were cautious ahead of the Fed meeting this week. Net selling by foreigners also tempered demand. "Some investors appear concerned that the Fed’s meeting this week may not take enough quantitative easing measures to satisfy market demands," said Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities in Seoul.
QE2, QE2 and more QE2 – this is the basis for the global rally. How much QE2 will be enough to satisfy a global market that is now counting on AT LEAST $1Tn to be handed out by the Fed in 2011? It’s not just QE2, of course, the Fed continues to hand out money to Wall Street on an almost daily basis through their Permanent Open Market Operations or "POMO" and that trade has become as reliable as our "3am Trade" on the Yen as we at PSW have now begun to follow the POMO schedule (as Goldman Sachs has been advising their own clients) to give…
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Put spreader portends near-term erosion in Energy fund’s shares
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 10th, 2010 8:29 am
Today’s tickers: XLE, CROX, COCO, PCX, EBAY, NTAP, MW, ARG & AXL
XLE – Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF – A massive put spread purchased on the XLE, an exchange-traded fund designed to correspond to the performance of the Energy Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, points perhaps to one investor’s expectation that the price of the fund’s shares are set to decline ahead of September expiration day. Shares of the fund are currently up 0.40% at $54.06 as of 3:45 pm ET. It looks like the pessimistic player picked up approximately 40,000 puts at the September $53 strike for an average premium of $0.21 each, and sold about the same number of puts at the lower September $52 strike at an average premium of $0.44 a-pop. Net premium paid to purchase the spread amounts to $0.23 per contract. The investor responsible for the transaction stands ready to make money if shares of the XLE fall 2.4% from the current price of $54.06 to breach the effective breakeven point at $52.77 by expiration next Friday. Maximum potential profits of $0.77 per contract – for a total of $3,080 million – are available to the trader if the XLE’s shares drop 3.8% to slip beneath $52.00 by expiration day.
CROX – Crocs, Inc. – The footwear firm’s shares plunged 15.5% in afternoon trading to touch down at an intraday low of $11.68. Sharp share price erosion spurred put buying by options traders expecting the stock to continue lower ahead of October expiration. Investors purchased approximately 5,100 now in-the-money puts at the October $12 strike for an average premium of $0.85 each. Put players make money if shares fall another 4.5% from today’s low of $11.68 to breach the average breakeven point at $11.15 by expiration day next month. Options implied volatility on the shoe maker shot up 26.7% to 66.39% as of 3:40 pm ET.
COCO – Corinthian Colleges, Inc. – Shares in for-profit university, Corinthian Colleges, Inc., shot up 14.5% to an intraday high of $5.61 this morning on speculation the company may be acquired. Options traders were quick to initiate bullish stances on the stock in case the rumors end up having some truth to them. COCO’s shares cooled slightly in afternoon trading and are currently up 9.8% on the day to stand at $5.38 as of 2:50 pm ET. Speculators hoping to see shares continue higher picked…
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Pessimist Plants Put Spread on Comerica Inc.
by Andrew Wilkinson - August 6th, 2010 4:08 pm
Today’s tickers: CMA, CSCO, ATHN, FIG, CYD, CROX & NUAN
CMA – Comerica Inc. – The financial services firm’s shares declined as much as 4.8% today to touch down at an intraday low of $36.38. One options investor expecting Comerica’s shares to continue to head south ahead of October expiration purchased a plain-vanilla debit put spread. Shares are currently down 3.65% on the day to arrive at $36.82 just before 2:45 pm ET. The bearish player purchased 5,000 puts at the October $36 strike for an average premium of $2.05 per contract, and sold the same number of puts at the lower October $30 strike for an average premium of $0.50 apiece. The net cost of buying the spread amounts to $1.55 per contract. Thus, the investor responsible for initiating the transaction is poised to profit should CMA’s shares fall another 6.4% from the current price of $36.82 to trade below the effective breakeven point at $34.45 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $4.45 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if Comerica’s shares plummet 18.5% to slip beneath $30.00 by expiration in October. The surge in demand for options on the stock helped lift the overall reading of options implied volatility on CMA 9.1% to 34.00% this afternoon.
CSCO – Cisco Systems, Inc. – Wary options players are scooping up put options on the maker of switches and routers today with shares of the underlying stock trading lower by 0.95% to stand at $23.94 in late afternoon trading. Investors expecting to see Cisco’s shares decline following the firm’s fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the closing bell on August 11, opted to purchase weekly put options expiring on August 13. Traders bought approximately 6,800 put options at the August $23 strike for an average premium of $0.26 apiece. Put buyers make money as long as Cisco’s shares fall another 5.00% from the current price of $23.94 to trade below the average breakeven point to the downside at $22.74 by expiration day.
ATHN – Athena Health, Inc. – Shares of the provider of Internet-based business services for physician practices fell as much as 4.00% today to an intraday low of $25.18. Today’s low point in ATHN shares marks an 11.025% decline in the price of the underlying stock since Monday when shares touched an intraday high of $28.30. Athena Health appeared on our scanners today after one bearish options…
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Bullish Investors Flock to Popular, Inc. as Shares Reach a New 52-Week High
by Andrew Wilkinson - April 13th, 2010 4:40 pm
Today’s tickers: BPOP, SLV, XRT, RCL, USO, MRO, AVP, PG & CROX
BPOP – Popular, Inc. – Shares of the largest bank in Puerto Rico surged 26.5% during the trading session to a new 52-week high of $3.86 after the firm was raised to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ and given a target share price of $3.50 at B. Riley & Co. Popular’s shares took off running on news the company may sell its Evertec unit and some other businesses for $1 billion. Options traders enacted bullish strategies on the stock to position for continued upward movement in the price of the underlying stock. Plain-vanilla call buying took place at the April $3.5 strike where approximately 9,400 now in-the-money contracts were picked up for an average premium of $0.14 apiece. Other traders displayed optimism on Popular, Inc. by shedding put options. Roughly 4,500 puts were sold short at the April $3.0 strike for a premium of $0.06 each. Investors keep the premium received as long as shares trade above $3.00 through expiration day on Friday. Similar bullish activity was observed in the May contract today. Investors paid an average premium of $0.28 per contract to take ownership of nearly 8,000 in-the-money call contracts at the May $3.5 strike price. Additionally, traders expecting shares of BPOP to remain above $3.50 through May expiration shed 6,200 put options at the May $3.5 strike to receive an average premium of $0.33 each. Put sellers at this strike price keep the full premium pocketed on the trade as long as shares of the underlying stock exceed $3.50 through expiration day. Investors short the puts are apparently happy to have BPOP-shares put to them at an effective price of $3.17 each should the put options land in-the-money at expiration. Options players exchange 83,855 contracts at Popular, Inc. as of 3:00 pm (ET), which represent more than 55% of the total existing open interest on the stock of 151,847 contracts.
SLV – iShares Silver Trust ETF – Shares of the silver ETF, an exchange-traded fund whose share price typically reflects the price of silver owned by the Trust at any given time less the Trust’s expenses and liabilities, increased 0.35% in late afternoon trading to stand at $17.87. Options activity on the stock, however, indicates at least one investor is expecting the price of the underlying shares to decline ahead of July expiration. It looks like the bearish…
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Short (but Wild) Weekly Wrap-Up
by Phil - April 3rd, 2010 7:55 am
What a crazy week!
The markets were bucking like a bronco but were they trying to throw off the shorts prior to a move back down or trying to flush out the weak-handed longs prior to a big breakout to new levels? After gapping open to 10,900 on Monday morning we went up to 10,950, down to 10,830 and back to 10,950 – all to finish the week at 10,927, which is up 39 points since March 23rd so don’t tell me we’re wasting out time as that’s 5 points a day baby (if we round up).
We had the day off on Friday but we did get the critical Non-Farm Payroll data for March but, as noted in my report (and in the Member Chat), despite the very excited reaction from the futures, there is no clear indication there that either the Bulls or Bears have a lasting point. So perhaps the wild market action is nothing more than good old-fashioned indecision – the futures flew up but then Goldman said they saw "Little Underlying Improvement" in the data and that "Productivity Gains Have Diminished Sharply" - clearly mixed signals that may take some time to resolve.
Last weekend, I complained that it was a "6-Point Weekly Wrap-Up" as that’s all we got from the S&P, which finished at 1,166. This week I am happy to report that we gained 12 points – all the way to 1,178 and we are closing in on that 1,080 mark, which we did touch briefly at Thursday’s open (which gave us the great shorting opportunity we had looked for in Thursday morning’s post!). It’s not that I don’t respect the rally – technically, you have to respect the rally but that’s why we’re in cash: We can take advantage of these huge intra-day moves down (and sometimes up) - getting our 6-second bull rides and scoring as many points as we can before the rodeo clowns turn on the buy programs and stop the ride.
Overall, it’s a pretty mindless market. You can go long at about about 2pm and flip short about 10 am the next morning – in the futures that can add up to shocking amounts of money and it sure isn’t bad when you are using options for leverage either. We’re sure the game will collapse one day and hopefully we’ll be able to pull the rip cord without…
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Weekly Wrap-Up – Buffett’s Daring Derivative Deal Does Well
by Phil - February 28th, 2010 9:30 am
I was going to talk about Buffett’s annual letter to investors.
Fortunately, I procrastinated and other people did some detailed reporting like Ravi Nagarajan, Andy Fry, Scott Patterson and Joe Del Bruno – who does a great job of pointing out that Berkshire’s 4th quarter results were propped up by Buffett’s $1.05Bn gains in derivatives betting (something Buffett himself once called "weapons of mass financial destruction" but, as we well know – if you can’t beat them…), which accounted for 1/3 of Berkshire’s $3.06Bn profits.
Buffett’s biggest bet was selling a put against the S&P 500 back in March – a move I said at the time was BRILLIANT and Buffett himself now says about his own options trading: "We are delighted that we hold the derivatives contracts that we do. To date, we have significantly profited from the float they provide. We expect also to earn further investment income over the life of our contracts."
What did Buffett do? Exactly what we teach you to do here at PSW - he took advantage of an irrational move in the markets and SOLD INTO THE EXCITEMENT, getting a fat premium from some sucker that bet the S&P would not hold 666 5 years from now. Buffett effectively sold $5Bn worth of puts that expires worthless at S&P 700 between 2019 and 2027, putting $5Bn in his pocket and holding aside $1Bn in margin, which is how much he’s already ahead on the bet. Like a good options trader, he has a plan and he’s trading his plan, making sure his investment is on track and patiently letting time do it’s work as it eats away at the put-holder’s premium.
What about the risk? Well I can’t speak for Buffett’s stop-loss technique but we’re talking about a company that has (had) $40Bn in cash using their excess margin to make a $5Bn bet that the S&P would not stay below 700 for 10 years. Buffett and I both tell people – NEVER buy a stock (or sell a put against one) that you are not willing to own for 10 years. The S&P was 5% below at the time and would have had to drop, perhaps, 20% more to cost him $1Bn so let’s call the stop 550 on the S&P where Buffett risked 2.5% of his cash against a posible 400% gain on his $1Bn risk allocation over 10+ years. While it is true that if the S&P dropped 50% in one day Buffett would be…
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Ford Call Options Gone Wild as Bulls Populate January 2011 Contract
by Phil - January 7th, 2010 4:31 pm
Today’s tickers: F, IPG, MBI, DAL, XLF, XHB, CROX, GME, BBBY & NVTL
F – Ford Motor Co. – Yesterday we reported on a short strangle play, which implied the automaker’s shares would likely remain within the realm of $10.00 to $12.00 for the next six months to expiration in June 2010. Today we observed bullish options activity in the January 2011 contract, which points to significantly higher shares for Ford in the next twelve months. The stock rallied again today, gaining 2% to reach a new 52-week high of $11.60 with just under 30 minutes remaining in the session. Bullish indications came in the form of a call spread and plain-vanilla call buying strategies. It looks like one investor purchased a large chunk of 50,000 calls at the January 2011 $17.50 strike for an average of $0.58 apiece. The trader responsible for the transaction benefits from this position only if Ford’s shares explode 56% over the current price to surpass the breakeven point at $18.08 by next January. The parameters of the call spread also implies a significant increase in shares of the motor company by 2011, but the nature of the spread limits upside profit potential, whereas the plain-vanilla call buyer’s profits are potentially limitless. The investor responsible for the spread selected the more conservative January 2011 $15 strike to purchase approximately 6,000 calls for an average premium of $1.06 per contract. The other half of the debit spread involved the sale of the same number of calls at the higher January 2011 $22.50 strike for about $0.20 each. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to $0.86 per contract and positions the investor to accrue profits above the breakeven price of $15.86. Maximum potential profits of $6.64 per contract are available to the trader if Ford’s shares rally a whopping 94% from the current value to $22.50 by expiration in January of 2011.
IPG – Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. – A long straddle strategy initiated on the advertising and marketing company implies one investor expects greater volatility in the price of the underlying through expiration in February. The inherent nature of the long straddle suggests shares of IPG may swing dramatically in the next few weeks. Interpublic’s shares are currently off 2.5% to stand at $7.27 in afternoon trading. The straddle-player purchased about 2,000 puts at the February $7.50 strike for an average premium of…
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Two Week Wrap-Up – Trading Our Range
by Phil - December 6th, 2009 7:58 am
Your "crystal ball" was dead-on with the insights into the report on jobs as well as the initial rise and then correction. Truly impressive. – Champstar2
We didn’t have a weekly wrap-up last week because of the holiday.
In our Nov 21st Wrap-Up, I had said next week we’ll be watching to see if we can get more bullish above our 25% lines at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600 and that became the bottom of our new range while I sent out a 9:41 Alert to our Members on Nov 23rd sticking with our upside targets of Dow 10,471, S&P 1,113, Nas 2,205, NYSE 7,266 and Russell 605. That has been a very reliable range to play for the past two weeks and we’ve been having a good time playing both ends of it.
Rather than just wrapping up this week’s moves, I thought we’d add the prior week as the pattern is very much the same (and it was the same the week before) so it certainly bears (oops, don’t say bears!) studying. Of course, when I talk about patterns, I don’t just mean the chart pattern where we have all of our gains for the week on Monday and Tuesday on low volume and then larger volume selling for the rest of the week as the funds who pump the futures up dump their ill-gotten gains on retail investors. I’m talking about the global new patterns, as reported by the MSM, that make this sort of manipulation so effective. It’s not that I’m so good at predicting things – it’s really just that I’m good at spotting the BS…
Monday - Stuffing the Futures for Thanksgiving
I was pointing out that morning that 90% of the market gains since October had been coming on a single day each week and how a lot of that was happening in the very thinly-traded Futures market, where a few thousand shares traded overnight are able to lever the entire US market up by Trillions of Dollars. It’s a very sick and broken system that has been seized by manipulators to yank investors around, making sure retail investors have little ability to participate in these wild market moves as the game is already over by the time trading starts the next day.
This week, we had 2 days like that with both Tuesday and Friday gapping up over 100 points…
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$100,000 Portfolio Update – Week 5
by Phil - October 4th, 2009 8:28 am
Well this has been annoying…
After 30 days of trading our current portfolio value is just $100,454.39 as we took quite a setback when we sold naked calls ahead of the move up. Fortunately, we didn’t lose our cool and rode it out. In fact, we only made one trade in the past two weeks so there hasn’t been much to report and there still isn’t but the end of our first month is a good time for an update. Of course, we do have a lot of outstanding October Premium to collect so the next two weeks are when we make our real money…
We still have $92,315 in cash so plenty of buying power should we choose to deploy it but we are sticking with our plan of scaling into the postions we have, which means we’re letting them run out through October 16th expirations and we’ll see if we finally get the bargains we’ve been waiting for to set up our longer term bull plays. For now, in this VERY conservative, low-touch portfolio, we’ve been following Warren Buffett’s Investing Rule #1: Don’t lose money!
| Description | Price Paid | Last Price | Qty | Market Value | Margin Req. | Profit Loss | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIG CALL 40 Oct 09 | $6.30 | $5.50 | -1 | $550.00 | $1,196.20 | $80.00 | 12.70% |
| On target with AIG at $43.40, this is typical of our outstanding sales with the VIX so high – we just have to wait. | |||||||
| AMZN CALL 90 Oct 09 | $3.60 | $2.80 | -10 | $2,800.00 | $16,127.50 | $800.00 | 22.22% |
| We wouldn’t do this play if we needed the margin but a nice $2,800 to collect if AMZN stays below $90 | |||||||
| BAC CALL 10 Jan 11 | $8.60 | $7.50 | 5 | $3,750.00 | $0.00 | -$550.00 | -12.79% |
| BAC CALL 17 Oct 09 | $1.27 | $0.43 | -5 | $215.00 | $1,110.50 | $420.00 | 66.14% |
| BAC PUT 17 Oct 09 | $0.97 | $1.09 | -5 | $545.00 | $1,770.50 | -$60.00 | -12.37% |
| BAC PUT 20 Jan | |||||||
…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(