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Posts Tagged ‘FCX’

Bearish Risk Reversal Anchored in Royal Caribbean Cruises

Today’s tickers: RCL, GE, YHOO, XLF, X, FCX, AIG, CF, JAVA & UAUA

RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. – Bearish option traders clawed-aboard global cruise company, Royal Caribbean, today despite the 0.5% increase in shares during the trading session to $24.24. A large-volume risk reversal in the June 2010 contract indicates rougher seas could cloud RCL’s horizon. One investor sold 20,000 calls at the June 30 strike for an average premium of 1.70 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of put options at the lower June 20 strike for 2.25 each. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 55 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the trade is likely long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the long put position established today, provides downside protection beneath the effective breakeven point at $19.45. Conversely, if shares surge during the next seven months, the underlying stock position will be called away from the trader if shares exceed $30.00 by expiration in June.

GE - General Electric Co. – A sold straddle on General Electric this afternoon indicates one investor expects shares to settle at $16.00 by expiration in June of 2010. Shares edged slightly lower by less than 0.50% to $15.88 in late afternoon trading. The trader looked to the June 16 strike to sell approximately 5,000 calls for a premium of 1.61 apiece and 5,000 puts at the same strike for 1.89 each. The gross premium pocketed by the investor amounts to 3.50 per contract. The trader keeps the full 3.50 premium on the straddle if shares center at $16.00 through expiration. The investor may take profits ahead of expiration by buying back the short straddle for less than 3.50 per contract. Premiums on both calls and puts are elevated today because of the 6% increase in option implied volatility on the stock to 35.50%. The trader benefits from lower volatility on GE and from eroding time value of option premiums. Both factors drag option premiums lower and allow the trader to buy back the straddle in a profitable manner.

YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. – The 0.5% decline in shares of the internet company to $14.93 did not deter one investor from taking a bullish stance in the April 2010 contract today. It appears the trader put on a ratio call spread to position for a rebound in shares by expiration. The investor purchased 2,500 calls at…
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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up, Topping or Popping?

This was an annoying week for bulls and bears alike.

We had a very exciting day on Monday, topping out at 10,248 but I didn’t like the way we got there (low-volume, commodity rally, as noted in David Fry’s chart) and, when pressed for a prediction on TV that evening, I had to say that I felt that we were more likely to be down by Thanksgiving than up with a possible Santa Claus bounce into Christmas.   What we did get for the remainder of the week was very choppy action on even lower volume

I had mentioned in last week’s "Wrong-Way Weekly Wrap-Up" that we were partying like it’s 1999 as we broke through Dow 10,000 and S&P 1,080, despite rapidly deteriorating fundamentals.  Stocks are being bought because they are going up in price (much like commodities), not because there is any actual demand for them and that is very clear from the rapidly declining index volume as we run back into resistance at S&P 1,100. 

Since early September our upside targets for the indexes have been: Dow 10,087, S&P 1,096, Nasdaq 2,173, NYSE 7,204 and Russell 623 and nothing has happened to change our fundamental outlook for the better so the closer we get to those levels, the LESS comfortable we are taking bullish positions.  In fact, yesterday as we got our mid-day spike to 10,300, I told members that it was sorely tempting to just cash out all bullish positions and take 20% of the portfolio 100% bearish with a 10% stop.  Rather than mess around with a mix of positions, going fully bearish can allow for some spectacular gains if we crash and stopping out with a 50% loss would suck - but a breakout like that, well above Dow 11,000 and S&P 1,200 would certainly give us reason to be more bullish.

As I concluded last week: "We’re generally not happy until we see Russell 600 and the Dow Transports over 4,000 (now 3,852) and we took a 55% bearish stance into the weekend because we’ll feel a lot less silly being burned by a move up than we would if we weren’t bearish enough for a move down.  It would be nice to be able to make more of a commitment but the bulls clearly have the bears cowering in fear so we’ll just patiently wait and see how far they can play things out."  Not much has changed since then and we are still waiting to confirm…
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Jobless Thursday - Get Ready for the Next Million Layoffs

State Tax Revs & Economic Changes"California tumbles into the sea."

Yes, Steely Dan predicted it in 1973, when Ronald Reagan was still Governor but we thought they were talking about earthquakes at the time.  This year it’s clearly California’s 49.3% budget gap and 16.2% drop in state revenue that has them leading a list of lemming states to their doom.  Over 1M state and municipal employees may be getting their last checks this Christmas as 9 states face budget issues on par with California.

According to The Atlantic:  Nine more states are "barreling toward an economic disaster" according to a new Pew poll that sees deep service cuts and temporary tax hikes to avoid fiscal calamity. Some of these states will be familiar to Atlantic Business readers. I’ve been leading the funeral cry for the united states of MichiCaliFlAriVada (that’s Michigan, California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada), and all five states are on Pew’s list. Rounding out the ten are Illinois, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. Here’s the graph from the Pew Center on the States:
 

Six Factors   Revenue change
Budget gap   Unemployment rate change   Foreclosure rate   Need supermajority?     GPP "money" grade   Score
















United States   -11.70%   17.7%5   4.4   1.37%   17 yes, 33 no     B- 5   17
                               
California   -16.20%   49.30%   4.6   2.02%   Yes     D+   30
                               
Arizona   -16.50%   41.10%   3   2.42%   Yes     C+   28
                               
Rhode Island   -12.50%   19.20%   4.5   1.50%   Yes     D+   28
                               
Michigan   -16.50%   12.00%   6   1.47%   Yes     C+   27
                               
Oregon   -19.00%   14.50%   6.4   0.86%   Yes     C+   26
                               
Nevada   1.50%   37.80%   5.2   3.12%   Yes     C+   26
                               
Florida   -11.50%   22.80%   4.4   2.72%   Yes     B-   25
                               
New Jersey   -15.80%   29.90%   3.7   1.18%   No     C-   23
                               
Illinois   -10.90%   47.30%   3.5   1.44%   No     C-   22
                               
Wisconsin   -11.20%   23.20%   4.4   0.96%   No     C+   22

This horrible news only underscores the fact that even though 70% of stimulus spending has gone to fill in Medicaid and state budget holes, our states are still in dire straits because state tax revenue is collapsing across the country.  Unlike the federal government, states cannot run deficits, which means cascading revenue becomes cascading services and many, many cut state jobs. For those who resist another state bailout-type stimulus bill, they must recognize what that entails: hundreds of thousands of state employees joining the ranks of unemployment, and unemployment benefits. Q3 was great, but this thing isn’t close to being over.  The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities reports that states could cut almost a Million jobs without US aid because of budget shortfalls.

A Million jobs!?!  That can’t be good, right?  Of course, as Jim Cramer told us on Friday: "The bears were right, unemployment is awful but no one seems to care."  So far this week, Jim is right and I am wrong - we’ve gone up another 100 points since I made my top of the market call on Monday night so I tip my cap to Jim, who seems to be able to switch off his brain and go with the flow a lot better than I can.  My call yesterday morning, was to take advantage of the futures pop at…
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Toppy Tuesday Morning

That was some day yesterday

We even had to flip bullish in the afternoon (slightly and reluctantly) but, when push came to shove and they asked me for my opinion on TV, I had to tell them I still thought we were toppy.  I said that despite the Fast Money crew sitting in the studio right below me actively advising their viewers to chase the performance and, right after them, our friendbuddypal Jim Cramer told his viewers that no news is good news and the market is in a "a positive and delicious void" where we don’t have to worry about any pesky facts interfering with our buying premise

To that end, Cramer suggests chasing AAPL, GOOG, GS, BAC and WFC and anything else that is not nailed down.   "There are only 35 days of trading left in the year," Cramer says, "so we can expect money managers to pile into these companies when they realize the 2010 numbers are too low. Retail investors should be sure they aren’t left behind."  Yes, we should blindly follow the money managers because they’ve never steered us wrong before (end sarcasm font). 

Does it bother me to have be on the other side of the trade from "the finest minds on Wall Street"?  A little, to be honest.  As I pointed out yesterday in reminding you about what happened in 1999 and as John Maynard Keynes reminded us all decades ago:  "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."  We discussed this logic back on October 12th, when I warned the bears that you can’t keep supporting the wrong team when they are clearly losing the game.

We had stayed about 55% bearish into the weekend but quickly covered up in the morning after all that stimulus talk against the declining dollar.  In my 9:43 Alert to Members I said: "If we break over 10,120, then the selling the DIA $103 puts, now $2.55 are a great momentum play if you have the longer covers to protect you."  Those puts finished the day at $1.70, a nice, quick 32% gain on the day and that’s how fast you can rebalance using index covers and those profits came AFTER buying back the Dec $99 puts we sold for $2.50 at $1.80 - 28% from Friday to Monday.  

In the morning post, I had set up a chart for the week and added our 25% targets of Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600 and,…
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Weekly Wrap Up - Double Up or Double Top?

Not such a good week!

Last week was FANTASTIC and we had 28 winning trades out of 36 with an average gain of 42% on the winners and an average loss of 12% on the losers - now THAT’s A GOOD WEEK.  We were stopped out of most of our bearish trades on Monday but we took a lot of new ones, which I’ll get into later…  Of course, since we are rangish and play both ends, the good news is we still had our "losers" and puts that we sold on long positions and those turned into huge winners in just 5 days:

  • AA at $13.30, out at $15 -  up 12.7%
  • AAPL Jan $165 puts sold for $7.40, now $4.70 - up 36%
  • BAC Oct $17 puts sold for .97, now .28 - up 71%
  • DIA Nov $92 calls at $5.40, now $7.30 - up 35%
  • MHP 2011 $25 puts sold for $5.20, now 5.10 - up 2%
  • RIMM March $100 calls at $1.45, now $1.25, down 13.7%

So, of the 6 that were not working last week, 5 are winners this week.  As I mentioned at the end of last week’s wrap up, we were more than satisfied with our 5% drop that week and we did expect a bit of a bounce but we made the mistake of thinking The 250 points we gained by Tuesday morning was the end of it, but here we are at the end of the week, another 100 points higher and right back where we started from when we shorted into the rally in mid September. 

Last weekend we were at a great point in our range as all our put plays had just paid off, this will be an interesting contrast as we have serious problems with our new short plays and we have a little less conviction than we had in mid September that we will get our correction - not after such a sharp turn off the 5% line this week.  Nonetheless, we did stay 55% bearish into the weekend overall - still playing for our range.  But, I’m getting ahead of myself, so let’s go back to Monday and see how we got here….

Monday Market Manipulation - Goldman’s CIT Bonanza

I was not at all pleased with the scam GS was running on CIT and neither were many in the press but their attention span lasted all of 24 hours as the markets mysteriously began to take off, neatly drawing people’s attention elsewhere….

Our concern over falling tax…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday?

When your first trade of the day is a cover, you know you are too bearish!

That’s what happened to us yesterday when I sent out a 9:47 Trade Alert to Members for the QQQQ $41/42 bull call spread at .57 to cover the too bearish stance I was worried about in the morning post.  We exited that trade at .70 (up 22%) and that served it’s purpose of giving us some cash to put into rolling up our puts, following through on the strategy laid out in the morning post.  As I said at the time, these are the moves we’re making BEFORE we capitulate and our short plays will form a base from which we can aggressively go long once we clear our targets

I called off that QQQQ trade at 11:32, about 9 cents off the high of the day as they looked about to fail our 42 target which, as you can see from David Fry’s chart, is right about the middle of the weekly range so it’s a level we have to respect on multiple fronts.  We’re still waiting for a proper test of that 40 line, a 5% drop from here and PSQ (short QQQQ) calls are the main protection in our $100K Portfolio at the moment.  Any move below 40 on the Qs can re-shape the chart to a much more bearish formation long-term. 

We also covered up our long DIA puts, which flipped us more bullish overall and ended the day half-covered - neutral and confused but with more aggressive puts than we had on Monday so some small progress was made.  In addition to rolling up our bear plays like GLD puts, we added hedged January bullish plays on EDZ and TZA, went bullish on RIMM as they sold off to $65, bearish on MOS as they ran up to $49, bullish on WFR at $16, bearish on FCX at $70, April bullish and hedged on SKF, bearish on OIH at $118.50, Jan bearish and hedged on TIF at $40.75, bullish and hedged on April SCO and bullish on FXP at $9.45.  Overall a pretty busy and bearish day of trading.

As I said to members in my closing comments, the XLF couldn’t hold $15 and the Qs couldn’t hold 42, which were both watch levels for us during the day.  The index levels we were targeting were a mixed bag as we were looking for upside resistance at Dow 9,700, S&P 1,060, Nas 2,120,…
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Weekly Wrap-Up, How to Make Money in a Down Market

Wow. what a fantastic week!

Well, not for the markets but for us as we totally nailed it.  It’s hard to believe that it was just two weeks ago, on Monday, the 21st, after I posted the "Wrong Way Weekly Wrap-Up" as the Dow rose from 9,600 to 9,800, that I had to apologize to members, saying: "I’m sorry because I don’t like being bearish - I’m an optimistic guy usually but I can’t just sit here and tell people what they want to hear.  It’s just too irresponsible not to be cautious here.  We make plenty of bullish picks but I maintain a very wary outlook until we get some real fundamental improvements."

That’s the funny thing about fundamentals, they don’t matter until they do - and then they matter a lot.  It’s funny how I get labeled a perma bear when I’m shorting the market at the top and a perma bull when I’m buying the maket at the bottom.  Gee, I always thought that’s what you’re supposed to do but it turns out that few people have the patience to work a market trading range and I don’t blame them, I blame the mainstream media, who encourage this destructive herd mentality to investing that culminates in Jim Cramer and his sound-board, where all the complexities of the market are supposed to boil down to either BUYBUYBUY or SELLSELLSELL. 

It makes me seem downright wishy-washy when I said to members on the 21st: "I don’t have all the answers, but I do have a lot of questions - too many to get comfortable buying at these levels."  On the whole, as I explained in detail way back in late July, I am neither bullish nor bearish, I am Rangeish.  Yes, it’s a made-up word and I have to make it up because no other analysts these days seem to believe the market can go up AND down, everyone seems compelled to stick to one or the other AND THEY DO IT TO THE DETRIMENT OF THEIR READERS - I WILL NOT DO IT!

There are strong stocks and there are weak stocks and I can’t believe I even have to write this out but the best strategy is to short weak stocks and ETFs that have gone too high and buy strong stocks and ETFs that have gone too low.  As I explained in my LiveStock appearance back on March 6th (when I was called a "perma-bull" for calling a bottom), the market is like a huge tanker being pulled by individual stocks that are like tugboats.  If all the…
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General Electric Sees Bears Jump to Options Defense

Today’s tickers: GE, EEM, SLV, F, VALE, FCX, M, ABX & C

GE - The more than 3% decline in shares of GE today inspired bearish options activity to unfold in the November contract. One investor chose to employ a put spread by purchasing 5,500 puts at the November 16 strike for 67 cents apiece, spread against the sale of the same number of contracts at the lower November 13 strike for 14 cents each. The net cost of the pessimistic play amounts to 53 cents per contract. If the investor is long shares of the underlying stock, downside protection on the put play will kick in if shares decline beneath the breakeven price of $15.47 by expiration day. The strike prices selected by the trader indicate that while he is bracing for further declines in the stock, he does not expect GE to decline much beneath $13.00 in the next few months. – General Electric –

EEM - The EEM jumped higher on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner following bullish options action in the January contract. Shares of the ETF are currently down 2% to $37.85. The investor responsible for the transaction looked to the January 38 strike to purchase 6,500 calls for an average premium of 2.78 apiece. The calls were spread against the sale of 6,500 in-the-money puts at the same strike for which the trader received 2.91 each. The risk reversal results in a net credit of 13 cents to the investor. The credit is retained by the trader if shares settle at $38.00 by expiration day. Additional profits will accumulate if shares of the ETF rally through $38.00. – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index –

SLV - Large-volume chunks of calls traded on the silver exchange-traded fund today by one investor who appears to be taking a bullish stance in the face of a more than 3.5% decline in shares to $15.96. The trader looked to the near-term October 16 strike to purchase 30,000 calls for an average premium of 65 cents apiece. The purchase was spread against the sale of the same number of calls at the January 2011 18 strike for a premium of 2.35 each. The transaction results in a net credit of 1.70 to the investor. Perhaps this individual expects the near-term calls to land in-the-money by expiration. If this occurs, he may exercise the options and take delivery of the underlying stock…
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Cemex Share Issue Has Bears Target Option Risk-Reversals

Today’s tickers: CX, RIMM, FCX, LAVA, XLF, M, MBI, JDSU & SHPGY

CX - The Mexican cement company’s shares have edged slightly lower by less than 0.5% to $13.04 this afternoon due to the firm’s plan to issue stock to pay down debt. Option traders have braced for further declines by employing bearish risk reversals in the October contract. It appears investors shed 6,500 calls at the October 14 strike for 43 cents apiece in order to partially finance the purchase of 6,500 puts at the lower October 12 strike for 45 cents each. The net cost of picking up protective put options is reduced to just 2 pennies per contract. If traders are long the underlying stock, downside protection will kick in if shares slip beneath the breakeven point at $12.98 by expiration next month. – Cemex SAB de CV –

RIMM - Blackberry producer, Research in Motion, attracted bullish investors who initiated call spreads on the stock today. Shares are slightly higher by less than 0.25% to stand at the current price of $84.25. One investor targeted the November contract where it appears put options were sold to offset the cost of purchasing a call spread. The spread involved the purchase of 6,000 calls at the November 105 strike for 1.28 each against the sale of 6,000 calls at the higher November 120 strike for 33 cents per contract. Finally, the November 70 strike had 6,000 puts shed for an average premium of 1.87 apiece. The investor receives a net 91 cent credit on the three-legged strategy. He will retain the full premium as long as shares of RIMM remain higher than $70.00 by expiration day. Additional profits are available to the trader if the stock surges 25% from the current price to breach the $105.00 level. Maximum potential profits of 15.00 per contract would be attained if Research in Motion skyrocketed 42% to $120.00. Another trader put on a ratio call spread in the January contract. The bullish trade was established through the purchase of 1,500 calls at the January 90 strike for 6.81 spread against the sale of 3,000 calls at the higher January 115 strike for a premium of 1.42 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 3.97 per contract. The investor will begin to garner profits if shares rise through the breakeven point at $93.97 by January’s expiration. – Research in Motion Limited –

FCX  -…
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Bears in the Butterfly Garden

Today’s tickers: MS, EXPE, FCX, VIX, XRT, GPS, XLP & WFC

MS – A massive, albeit lopsided, butterfly spread was established on MS today amid a more than 3.5% decline in shares to $25.19. The highly bearish play was initiated by an individual who expects to profit from significant declines in the price of the underlying by expiration in October. The butterfly spread defied typical parameters seen in the strategy. The body of the spread involved the sale of 20,000 puts at the October 21 strike price for 1.45 apiece. But, the lower wing, which would typically have half as many contracts as the body, also had 20,000 puts which were purchased for 79 cents each. Finally, the conventional upper wing at the October 25 strike had 10,000 puts bought for 3.19 per contract. The bottom-heavy wing with twice as many puts as the upper wing suggests that the trader is prepared for shares to slip beneath $18.00 by expiration. If shares slipped beneath the lower strike price, the trader, who is still net long 10,000 put options, would see the value of the puts appreciate. Perhaps this investor is banking on a renewal of financial calamities by the fall. – Morgan Stanley

EXPE – Bearish sentiment on the online travel company was apparent after one trader spawned a butterfly in the October contract. This individual probably doubts that the demand for travel and vacation accommodations is heading anywhere but south given rising unemployment statistics. Shares of EXPE have slipped along with the broader market today by 1.5% to $13.59. The butterfly spread was initiated through the sale of 22,000 puts at the October 10 strike price for a premium of 47 cents apiece. The body was flanked by the purchase of two wings. The higher October 15 strike had 11,000 puts purchased for 2.56 per contract and the lower October 7.5 strike also had 11,000 puts picked up for 18 cents apiece. We would like to point out that unlike traditional butterfly spreads, which have equidistant strikes, this butterfly was born with lopsided wings as the lower strike is just 2.5 below the central exercise price rather than 5 points. The investor has realized a net cost of 1.80 and will begin to amass profits beneath the breakeven point at $13.20. Maximum potential profits of 3.20 would be attained if shares of EXPE drop to $10.00 by expiration in the fall. The…
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Phil's Favorites

Greece risks financial Armageddon while Ireland makes cuts

Greece risks financial Armageddon while Ireland makes cuts

Courtesy of Edward Harrison at Credit Writedowns

The Irish government announced draconian spending cuts of 6 billion Euros in order to stave off a debt crisis in the worst modern-day downturn in the nation’s history.  Even so, Irish government bond yields have been rising relative to German government bond yields, the benchmark for the Eurozone.  Over the past five years the spread had averaged about 40bps. Now it is 170b...



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Zero Hedge

Guest Post: Gossip From The Wall Street Journal's Future Of Finance Initiative

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

Submitted by Janet Tavakoli, via Huffington Post

Last week I was a participant in the Wall Street Journal's Future of Finance Initiative in England. WSJ has written a summary of the conference highlights, and missed some key points. Allow me to fill in the blanks.

Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman and current Chair of the President's Economic Advisory Board, made the most worthwhile comments. Moral hazard was not discussed in the open forums, so Volcker reminded the assembly...



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Chart School

On the Value in Housing

On the Value in Housing

Courtesy of Jake at Econompic Data  

Felix Salmon recently made the case in his post Against Liquidity:

Investing shouldn’t be about safety: it should be about calculated risk.

and...

Liquidity is not ever and always a good thing.

And I completely agree. But both of those points seem to be in conflict with a more recent post of his more from Chart School

Trading Goddess

Options and My Patience Expire Today

Well now we're officially cashed out!


As I always do before options expiration I reviewed our Buy List, which, this quarter, is a list of 37 stocks we've been playing since late December and, sadly, after reviewing 37 of our favorite investments very carefully this week - I could only conclude that cashing them out was the only decision I could be comfortable with this week. Of 66 trades we had on our 37 stocks, 64 are winners with an average return since 2/8 of 28% - since most of the trades were designed to make 40% for the year - it just seems silly not to take the money and run now, on March 19th.


You are not supposed to have 64 out of 66 winners in 6 weeks, you are not supposed to make 3/4 of what you anticipate for the year in 6 weeks - that is NOT how the markets are supposed to work! When the ma...



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Oxen Group Trades

The Oxen Report: Jobless Claims and Trade Balance to Direct Market Movement

Hey all. I apologize for missing yesterday. We are back on today. Tuesday was a semi-okay day. We continued our short sale of AMD, which we got stopped out on for a 3% loss at 6.65. The sto...



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The Options Report

By Andrew Wilkinson


Japanese ETF Options Active (After Philstockworld's Thursday Pick)

Today’s tickers: EWJ, RX, UUP, DRI, IMAX, SFD & AET

EWJ - iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund – Shares of the Japan exchange-traded fund rose 0.3% today to $9.92. The roughly 125,000 contracts exchanged on the fund today is likely the work of one investor adjusting previously established positions. The trader may be unraveling a portion of a bearish risk reversal established back in late-September. It appears 62,500 puts were sold at the March 10 strike for 53 cents apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of calls at the January 2011 12 strike for 24 cents premium each. The technically bullish direction of the risk reversal play is possibly a closing transaction given the large levels of existing open interest at each strike described above.

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Insider Zone


INSIDERS REMAIN DOUBTFUL OF THE RALLY

INSIDERS REMAIN DOUBTFUL OF THE RALLY

Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist

Few things have been more confounding over the course of the 60% rally than the lack of insider conviction with regards to purchasing their own stocks.  The latest data on insider selling and buying continues to show alarmingly low levels of buying accompanied by very high levels of selling.  As we continue to see the very weak rebound in revenues and non-existent hiring it has become more and more clear why insiders lack conviction in their own shares – after all, without a rebound in hiring and organic revenue growth ...


http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

OpTrader


Swing trading portfolio - week of December 14th, 2009

This post is for live trades and daily comments. 

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, membership etc.), please click here

- Optrader

...

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