End of the Bull: Primary Trend Shifts as Markets Shatter
by Chart School - June 30th, 2010 12:18 am
Courtesy of Fibozachi.com
While technical analysts and traders have numerous techniques for determining trends, the most basic method is the tracking of higher highs and higher lows (bullish trends), or lower highs and lower lows (bearish trends). Tuesday’s relentless sell-off across US equity markets marked an undeniable end to the continuous series of higher lows that had been intact since July 2009. With Tuesday’s close below 1,044.50 on the S&P 500 Cash, ‘bulltards‘ can no longer claim that the primary trend of equities remains bullish.
Traders are going to have their work cut out for them in the days and weeks ahead as a plethora of support levels remain scattered between the levels of 950 – 1,030. Though equities appear poised for downside acceleration into Q3, remaining short may prove difficult in days ahead for most as increased volatility, erratic HFT algos and near-record market internal readings combine to create yo-yo-like equity markets. Tuesday’s Advance / Decline line for the S&P 500 clocked in at -498, with only Zimmer Holdings (ZMH) closing higher. As a company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets orthopaedic reconstructive implants, dental implants, spinal implants, trauma products and related surgical products … could GETCO be anticipating a large order from Mr. Market for a new hip?
Joking aside, what can we expect after such an all-encompassing technical rout? There are essentially two ways to interpret such overwhelmingly positive / negative market internal readings: temporary exhaustion and inflection or breakaway continuation. Normally, when US equity markets exhibit an opening dislocation (greater than +/- 1.5%) and an extreme trend day (greater than 90% A/D, VOLD, etc.) there tends to be an immediate reflex so as to offset lopsided internal measures of momentum. And though the majority of such dislocationary instances immediately resolve themselves in the opposite price direction, the possibility of witnessing a breakaway continuation to the downside here looms large.
The only other modern instance of a -498 Advance / Decline reading on the S&P 500 occurred on September 29, 2008. Equity markets had effectively crashed before 9/29/08 saw an -8.83% swoon; the next day closed 60 points higher, retracing 63.08% of that loss before an eight day waterfall…
Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10
by ilene - March 29th, 2010 12:44 pm
In case you missed this in the Stock Chart section:
Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene
Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10
Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.
The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ‘08 – August ‘08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.…
Fibozachi Forecast
by Chart School - March 29th, 2010 4:38 am
Fibozachi and Chopshop’s proprietary trading methods provide them with ideas for short, intermediate and long-term trades in a weekly timeframe. This report discusses potential trade setups they’ll be watching throughout the week for possible entries. Their system is based on technicals of given stocks, but not to the exclusion of the greater context of stock market action. We hope you enjoy this report and as always, we appreciate feedback. - Ilene
Fibozachi Forecast 3-28-10
Though the weekly trends of US equity markets remain bullish, the S&P 500 ($INX) has almost grabbed our upper target of 1,185 and we at Fibozachi simply do not like the risk/reward ratio of establishing long positions after such an extensive rally has already taken place. While the past two weeks have resulted positive closes and higher highs, volume has continually diminished. The $INX has also registered an “Advance Block” bearish candlestick pattern. This is a 3-bar pattern where price moves higher over each candle, developing a larger upper shadow / wick on each successive bar. This character within this pattern suggests that bullish momentum continues to wane (over 3 weeks now), unable to close the week with the same strength that it began.
The vast majority of stocks have come back into resistance levels from June ’08 – August ’08, which will likely prove a good place to pause (at the very least), in the process putting a halt to the current rally that we are enjoying. Several long-term Fibonacci Moving Averages (SMAs & EMAs) are coming into play for many stocks, which will likely provide additional overhead resistance and help cap this rally.
While the levels of 1,200 and 1,230 on the S&P 500 remain possible upside targets, we remain adamant that chasing a few percent pointsafter a blistering 70%+ rally is a fool’s game. Considering where US equity markets currently hover, it is time to either sit on your hands and wait for a fat pitch right down the middle, or (if you are nimble enough) to begin targeting stocks that may be topping at these levels. Across dozens of our proprietary screens, which scan every US stock, ETF and market group (and then some), an overwhelming amount of bearish signals registered into Friday’s close. Even more noteworthy, our screens this weekend were almost entirely devoid of anything bullish. Nevertheless, we scoured the charts to find a handful of good bullish candidates to…
New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold
by Chart School - March 6th, 2010 8:00 am
New Volatility Index Futures for Oil & Gold
Courtesy of Chopshop at Fibozachi
As the VIX languishes in the doldrums of teen spirit, lulling market participants to sleep before volatility comes screaming back to life, the CME & CBOE have announced a partnership that will create futures (and options on futures) for volatility indexes across a variety of asset classes. Beginning with Oil, Gold, Corn and Soybeans, these new derivative instruments are scheduled for launch in Q3 of 2010. Each benchmark index will be established upon the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and price series will originate from CME Group options on futures contracts via the most active electronically traded front and nearby contracts.
[1] CME press release
[2] Crude Oil, Gold & Euro Volatility Index charts
[3] CBOE primer on just what the heck the VIX actually is
CHICAGO, March 5 — CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it has entered into a seven-year license agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that will allow CME Group to list futures and options on futures for volatility indexes on a variety of asset classes. These contracts will be listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of the particular exchange where the products will be traded (CME, CBOT or NYMEX).
"Our liquid and transparent commodity and financial markets are the foundation for the creation of new indexes that customers can use to gain a view on volatility across a wide array of asset classes," said Scot Warren, CME Group Managing Director of Equity Index Products and Services. "We believe that a reliable benchmark index for volatility sentiment on contracts such as WTI Crude Oil, Corn, Soybeans and Gold will help market participants make more effective investment and hedging decisions based on their exposure to market volatility."
Terms of the license agreement between the exchanges include the following:
- CBOE will create, own and calculate the benchmark indexes using its established CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) methodology and license use of the indexes to CME Group.
- The benchmark indexes are scheduled to begin publishing data during the third quarter of 2010.
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10
by Chart School - January 5th, 2010 9:28 pm
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 1.5.10
In this 1.5.10 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the S&P 500 Futures (ES), the VIX, the US Dollar Index (DXY), Crude Oil Futures (CL), Gold Futures (GC) and Silver Futures (SI).
- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -
ES (S&P 500 Futures)
VIX: CBOE Volatility Index
DXY (US Dollar Index)
CL (Crude Oil Futures)
GC (Gold Futures)
SI (Silver Futures)
Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally. We are currently flat at the time of publishing.
For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com. There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.
True Trading Tips: High-Probability Intra-Day Scalp Setups Using the NYSE TICK
by Chart School - December 28th, 2009 11:30 pm
Today’s market action was rather uneventful, however "lazy" days like today can often provide highly accurate and effective trading signals as a direct result of price immobility within narrow ranges. With a practical knowledge / understanding of technical analysis, one can utilize such signals to profitably scalp futures, stocks and ETFs with ease.
The following picture illustrates the two "gimme" trades that we discretionarily executed today as well as the logic and reasoning behind them.
-- Please click on the snapshot below to open a large, crystal-clear picture --
Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally. We are currently flat at the time of publishing.
For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com. There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09
by Chart School - December 28th, 2009 7:07 pm
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.28.09
In this 12.28.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 10 technical profiles of Gold, Silver, the US Dollar Index, the VIX, the BKX (Bank Index), GS (Golidlocks), SKF and the Cult of Cupertino, er, crAAPLe, er, (snap crackle) AAPL.
- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -
GC (Gold Futures)
SI (Silver Futures)
US Dollar Index
VIX: CBOE Volatility Index
BKX: Bank Index
SKF: UltraShort Financials
GS: Goldman Sachs
AAPL "Doji’s" its Way to New Highs
Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally. We are currently flat at the time of publishing.
For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com. There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09
by Chart School - December 21st, 2009 8:03 pm
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.21.09
In this 12.21.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present 12 technical profiles of the ES (S&P 500 Futures), the VIX, Gold, Futures, Silver Futures, Crude Oil Futures and the US Dollar Index.
- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -
ES (S&P 500 Futures)
VIX: CBOE Volatility Index
GC (Gold Futures)
SI (Silver Futures)
CL (Crude Oil Futures)
US Dollar Index
Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally. We are currently flat at the time of publishing …
For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our new website, www.fibozachi.com. There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09
by Chart School - December 17th, 2009 6:49 pm
FTU: Fibozachi Technical Update – 12.17.09
In this 12.17.09 edition of the Fibozachi Technical Update (FTU), we present detailed technical profiles of the US Dollar Index, Gold Futures, Silver Futures, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the S&P 500 Cash …
- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -
US Dollar Index
GC: Gold Futures
SI: Silver Futures
VIX: CBOE Volatility Index
INX: S&P 500 Cash Index
Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally. We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …
For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com. There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.
NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff
by Chart School - December 15th, 2009 6:09 pm
NYSE TICK Divergences Predict End-of-Day Selloff
One of the screens that we at Fibozachi continually monitor throughout the Cash session is the NYSE TICK.
The hackneyed cliche of "volume precedes price" is certainly true more often than not, however, it is far from foolproof. We prefer to modify this tired cliche by saying that: "buying and selling pressure precedes price."
The snapshots below (from today’s session) clearly illustrate how this critical relationship (between the TICK and price action itself) plays out on a daily basis.
- Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture -
ESH10 (S&P 500 E-Mini) with TICK Highs & Lows Overlayed onto Price
NYSE TICK 1-Minute
Disclosure: during any given session, we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally. We are currently flat and merry at the time of publishing …
For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com. There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume.

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(