The Subprime Debacle: Act 2
by ilene - October 16th, 2010 6:00 pm
The Subprime Debacle: Act 2
Courtesy of John Mauldin at Thoughts From The Frontline
Trouble, oh we got trouble, Right here in River City!
With a capital "T" That rhymes with "P"
And that stands for Pool, That stands for pool.
We’ve surely got trouble!
Right here in River City,
Right here! Gotta figger out a way
To keep the young ones moral after school!
Trouble, trouble, trouble, trouble, trouble…
- From The Music Man
(Quick last-minute note: I think this (and next week’s) is/will be one of the more important letters I have written in the last ten years. Take the time to read, and if you agree send it on to friends and responsible parties. And note to new readers: this letter goes to 1.5 million of my closest friends. It is free. Now, let’s jump in!)
There’s trouble, my friends, and it is does indeed involve pool(s), but not in the pool hall. The real monster is hidden in those pools of subprime debt that have not gone away. When I first began writing and speaking about the coming subprime disaster, it was in late 2007 and early 2008. The subject was being dismissed in most polite circles. "The subprime problem," testified Ben Bernanke, "will be contained."
My early take? It would be a disaster for investors. I admit I did not see in January that it would bring down Lehman and trigger the worst banking crisis in 80 years, less than 18 months later. But it was clear that it would not be "contained." We had no idea.
I also said that it was going to create a monster legal battle down the road that would take years to develop. Well, in the fullness of time, those years have come nigh upon us. Today we briefly look at the housing market, then the mortgage foreclosure debacle, and then we go into the real problem lurking in the background. It is The Subprime Debacle, Act 2. It is NOT the mortgage foreclosure issue, as serious as that is. I seriously doubt it will be contained, as well. Could the confluence of a bank credit crisis in the US and a sovereign debt banking crisis in Europe lead to another full-blown world banking crisis? The potential is there. This situation wants some serious attention.
This letter is going to print a little longer. But…
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Foreclosuregate: Time to Break Up the Too-Big-to-Fail Banks?
by ilene - October 16th, 2010 2:22 am
Ellen Brown makes a compelling case for using the Kanjorski amendment to preemptively break up large financial institutions because they pose a threat to our economic stability. - Ilene
Foreclosuregate: Time to Break Up the Too-Big-to-Fail Banks?
With risky behavior by big finance again threatening economic stability, how can we get things right this time?
Courtesy of Ellen Brown
Originally published in YES! Magazine
Looming losses from the mortgage scandal dubbed “foreclosuregate” may qualify as the sort of systemic risk that, under the new financial reform bill, warrants the breakup of the too-big-to-fail banks. The Kanjorski amendment allows federal regulators to pre-emptively break up large financial institutions that—for any reason—pose a threat to U.S. financial or economic stability.
Although downplayed by most media accounts and popular financial analysts, crippling bank losses from foreclosure flaws appear to be imminent and unavoidable. The defects prompting the “RoboSigning Scandal” are not mere technicalities but are inherent to the securitization process. They cannot be cured. This deep-seated fraud is already explicitly outlined in publicly available lawsuits.
There is, however, no need to panic, no need for TARP II, and no need for legislation to further conceal the fraud and push the inevitable failure of the too-big-to-fail banks into the future.
Federal regulators now have the tools to take control and set things right. The Wall Street giants escaped the Volcker Rule, which would have limited their size, and the Brown-Kaufman amendment, which would have broken up the largest six banks outright; but the financial reform bill has us covered. The Kanjorski amendment—which slipped past lobbyists largely unnoticed—allows federal regulators to preemptively break up large financial institutions that pose a threat to U.S. financial or economic stability.
Rep. Grayson’s Call for a Moratorium
The new Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) probably didn’t expect to have its authority called on quite so soon, but Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) has just put the amendment to the test. On October 7, in a letter addressed to Timothy Geithner, Shiela Bair, Ben Bernanke, Mary Schapiro, John Walsh (Acting Comptroller of the Currency), Gary Gensler, Ed DeMarco, and Debbie Matz (National Credit Union Administration), he asked for an emergency task force on foreclosure fraud. He said:
The liability here for the major banks is potentially enormous, and can lead
…
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Foreclosure Fraud For Dummies, 1: The Chains and the Stakes
by ilene - October 14th, 2010 3:06 pm
Foreclosure Fraud For Dummies, 1: The Chains and the Stakes
By Mike Konczal, courtesy of New Deal 2.0
All you need to know to follow the trail of wrongdoing.
The current wave of foreclosure fraud and the consequences for the economy are difficult to follow. As such, I’m going to write a few posts to simplify what is going on so you can follow stories as they unfold. This is very 101 level, and will include a reading list of blog posts and articles at each stage to help provide depth. (Special thanks to Yves Smith for walking me through much of this.) Let’s make three charts of the chains involved in the process. The first is what is currently going on with foreclosure fraud (click through for a larger image):
As you can see, in judicial review states like Florida the courts require that servicers, or those who administer the bonds that are full of mortgages (securitization, residential mortgage backed securities, RMBS, are all phrases they use), say that they have everything necessary in order to have standing to bring a foreclosure. They need to have the note for a mortgage, which is supposed to be in the trust — part of the mortgage backed securities — that they administer.
What is breaking down here? In Florida, a judicial review state, it was found that one person was notarizing documents far faster than anyone reasonably could have. Someone found forged documents necessary for the foreclosure process, like the note. A separate court system was set up to resolve these foreclosures faster, at the expense of allowing serious challenges to the documents. Here’s Smith on how kangaroo these courts look up close. Here’s WaPo on one individual and the nightmare of trying to challenge an invalid foreclosure. Keep him in mind when you hear about deadbeats and whatnot: the current system is designed to make it difficult for anyone to challenge their case.
Meet the robo-signer who kicked it off here at this WaPo story. I almost feel bad for this patsy; the real battle here is between junior and senior tranche holders, and this doofus could end up in jail in order to keep John Paulson rich. After reading about this guy, I’m asking our elites to take better care of their goons. (Can we get a Financial Patsy Fordism social contract movement going? If…
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DID WALL STREET SHAFT MAIN STREET?
by ilene - October 14th, 2010 2:36 pm
DID WALL STREET SHAFT MAIN STREET?
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
I am so torn on the foreclosure debate. On one side, you have homeowners who made bad bets and are now getting kicked out of their homes and onto the streets – that’s a horrible thing no matter how you cut it. On the other side you have the big banks who also made bad bets, but arguably made these bets in good faith. They were essentially building models based on the fact that US housing prices never go down – totally irrational in retrospect of course, but at the time this did not seem so crazy to most people (aside from yours truly who advised his parents not to purchase several houses in 2006 and was ignored).
The homeowners obviously made a bad bet, but I find it hard to believe that the banks were intentionally trying to fleece the American public. After all, if they had known that 2008 would occur they never would have sold all that bad paper to one another. It was more a case of greed run amok. The fees and income generated from this business were too easy, too consistent and too abundant for any greed loving banker to ignore. Likewise, the homeowner wanted to profit from rising home prices and did little due diligence on the most important purchase of their life. The banks were equally ignorant in that they clearly did not do their due diligence either (some of the banks hedged their exposure which seems like a prudent thing to do after the fact. Whether that was legal or not is not for me to decide….)
At the end of the day it seems like a lot of people made bad bets and now they all want a government handout. And the government appears to be willing to give it to them. In other words, it’s more capitalism without losers. And now that the bankers got their bailout Main Street feels entitled to one as well (and rightfully so). I know it’s probably a harsh thing to say, but when you make a bad bet you have to face the consequences of that bad bet. One of the reasons I believe the US economy is such a mess right now is because we’ve attempted to create a marketplace where no one ever loses. It’s a ponzi approach…
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Dylan Ratigan On Property Rights Gone Wrong And America’s Descent Into Central Planning Hell
by ilene - October 12th, 2010 2:58 pm
Dylan Ratigan On Property Rights Gone Wrong And America’s Descent Into Central Planning Hell
Courtesy of Tyler Durden
Now that the Fed is officially targeting a path for the level of nominal gross domestic product, which is essentially the politburo’s chief central planning task, and is just one step away removed what China does constantly by starting with a GDP assumption and trickling it down through the economy, it is only fitting that America, now on the verge of being a fully-blown communist country, is also abrogating property rights, courtesy of the much discussed foreclosure scandal. Dylan Ratigan provides a concise explanation of just how our bankers have managed to bring us to this last descent into central planning hell.
From Dylan Ratigan
Property Rights Gone Wrong
Most mortgages in America are now backed by our government. And in order for a bank to get that backing from our government it must fill two criteria:
1. The borrowers must be verified by the banks and their agents as qualified.
2. Lenders must fill out paperwork accurately and make sure that when the home’s title changes hands, so does the documentation.
But in the past two decades, a whole lot of the time, that never happened.
Why?
For banks and servicers, the motive was money. Banks profited by packaging and selling those toxic home loans. Then they profited again by betting against those same securities. A bet, in essence, that a fraudulent loan wouldn’t be paid back.
But why would politicians allow this?
The simple answer is to stay in office.
Giving people huge government incentives to buy houses made them happier and thus made their politicians more likely to keep their jobs. And at the same time, the financial services sector — the banks making all the money — were donating to their political campaigns.
In 2008, the financial sector was the top donor to both the Democratic and Republican candidates.
So where are all these toxic loans now? We own them! At the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac.
And the banks and politicians will do whatever it takes to prevent a legitimate foreclosure proceeding…one which would easily reveal the lack of qualifications and bad documentation in the loans sold to the government.
Finally, the last…
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2 Big 2 Foreclose--Is The Subprime End Game Approaching?
by ilene - October 11th, 2010 8:18 pm
How big is the foreclosure mess? Big. Here’s WB7′s perspective.
2 Big 2 Foreclose--Is The Subprime End Game Approaching?
Courtesy of williambanzai7 at Zero Hedge
THE MIDDLE GAME QUAGMIRE
After a bad opening, there is hope for the middle game. After a bad middle game, there is hope for the endgame. But once you are in the endgame, the moment of truth has arrived. – Edmar Mednis (Grandmaster)
I have one central thought of where this fraudclosure fiasco could lead, and this is why everyone should watch very carefully how the various players move their pieces in this subprime middle game.
Up until now, the banks have been making sweeping statements that this all reflects a "technical" glitch in foreclosure processes.
Well, having a posse of State AGs band together to commence a joint investigation is no longer a minor "technical" glitch. Allegations of masses of forged signatures, falsified or fabricated notarized documents, back dating etc., if true, collectively amount to an institutional pattern of criminal behavior. Having the Justice Department announce it is opening a preliminary investigation raises the stakes even higher.
Being forced to suspend all foreclosures has obvious "material" economic consequences to the CDO note holders.
But having title companies pull out of the residential real estate market because they no longer trust the veracity of bank provided documents presages claims by mortgagors who lost their properties as well as the subsequent purchasers of same. The only way to conclusively cure that kind of problem is to get waivers, and releases from the various claimants wherever they may be or pass retroactive curative laws or laws doing things like creating a bailout fund to indemnify those who are injured (yikes!). You cannot simply say this is immaterial, sprinkle in the word MERS and hope this will all go away.
The CDO note holders will have potential claims stemming from the interruption of non-performing loan processing. Think breaches of the trust servicing agreements and allegations of "gross negligence or willful misconduct", the latter being magical legal hurdle in these types of agreements. However, the much…
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Check Out Chris Whalen’s Terrifying Presentation On The 2011 Foreclosure Crisis
by ilene - October 9th, 2010 6:42 pm
Check Out Chris Whalen’s Terrifying Presentation On The 2011 Foreclosure Crisis
Courtesy of Gus Lubin at Business Insider
The biggest bear in foreclosure-gate is Institutional Risk Analytic’s Chris Whalen.
At a conference Wednesday, Whalen said the foreclosure crisis would make 2008 look like a cakewalk (via Prag Cap):
"The U.S. banking industry is entering a new period of crisis where operating costs are rising dramatically due to foreclosures and defaults. We are less than ¼ of the way through the foreclosure process."
Whalen says subprime losses never really showed up on balance sheets. But a coming wave of foreclosures will make them a reality. At a time when banks are already stressed, these rising operational costs will cause bankruptcy.
Even without foreclosure-gate banks were screwed. As the government stalls the clear out of toxic assets, bank liabilities will rise even more.
Click here to see Whalen’s presentation >
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Take It From Someone Who Called the Housing Crash
by ilene - September 23rd, 2010 2:50 pm
Take It From Someone Who Called the Housing Crash (and its victims) in 2005, We Are About Midway Through the Downturn, If That Far
Courtesy of Reggie Middleton at Zero Hedge
Bloomberg reports US Home Prices Fall Again:
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) — U.S. home prices dropped 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive decline, as foreclosed properties flooded the market.
Prices fell 0.5 percent from June, the Federal Housing Finance Agency in Washington said in a report today. Economists had projected prices to fall 0.2 percent from the previous month, based on the average of 15 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The agency revised the previously reported May-to-June decline to 1.2 percent from 0.3 percent.
Foreclosures are boosting the supply of available properties and reducing prices, even as mortgage rates tumble to record lows. The time it would take to clear the market of homes for sale was 12.5 months in July, the highest in more than a decade of data, according to the National Association of Realtors. Banks seized a record 95,364 properties from delinquent borrowers in August, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of housing data.
This should be of no surprise to anyone that reads the BoomBust or follows me regularly. I’ve been warning about the crash for over 5 years now, and those who feel we are nearing a bottom need to take out their spreadsheets and plug in some historical numbers.
Paying Subscribers are welcome to download the mortgage and credit template that was used in the original US (Don’t) Stress (US) tests, otherwise known as SCAP. We have taken the liberty to update the template on a periodic basis for the government, since it appears they are not forcing the banks to do so 
SCAP Assumptions Updated_09082010 Web Version. This model shows a weakness in the Case Shiller method of following prices in that the CS doesn’t include investment properties (usually the first to go into foreclosure), new construction, and REOs. As a matter of fact, Case Shiller actually looked slightly rosy as of late. The following graphs were generated from SCAP Assumptions Updated_09082010 Web Version..
Notice how the federal numbers show falls where CS doesn’t. Signs on the street tell me the federal numbers…
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How Serious is the GMAC Problem? Pretty Serious and Not Just GMAC
by ilene - September 21st, 2010 11:56 pm
How Serious is the GMAC Problem? Pretty Serious and Not Just GMAC
Courtesy of Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism
Various accounts have described how one officer of GMAC Mortgage’s servicing unit has admitted during testimony that, while he signs thousands of affidavits each month in order to affect steps in the foreclosure process, he does not have personal knowledge of certain critical facts in the affidavit which he asserts to be true. Reader Stupendous Man provided the text of Federal Rule 56 on affidavits (although the cases in question are in state courts, the same principles no doubt apply). Boldface ours:
A supporting or opposing affidavit must be made on personal knowledge, set out facts that would be admissible in evidence, and show that the affiant is competent to testify on the matters stated.
The key here is you can’t delegate creating affidavits to parties who weren’t close to relevant matter out of administrative convenience; you need to find people who were directly involved. And evidence in a number of foreclosure suits indicates that this problem not only extends well beyond GMAC, and is not a matter of matter of officers providing affidavits based on a review of copies of the paperwork in a transaction. As one attorney wrote:
It is beyond people signing things when they don’t see the “originals” These people don’t see shit. We have depositions from these folks, the only thing they are able to verify on the documents is what title they are supposed to use, from the particular servicer they are working for – Executive Secretary, Executive Vice President, Asst. Sec., etc…..
So there is evidence to support the notion GMAC was not alone in providing cooked up affidavits. The only question is how widespread this practice was at other servicers.
What are the implications of the GMAC Mortgage actions and how serious are the problems? GMAC Mortgage and similarly situated parties
…
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The Swelling Backlog
by ilene - September 18th, 2010 4:53 am
The Swelling Backlog
Courtesy of MIKE WHITNEY writing at CounterPunch
Home ownership has become an albatross. Prices are falling, demand is weak, foreclosures are soaring, and inventory is backed up to the moon. If there’s an upside, it’s a mystery to me.
Many of the people who bought homes in the last 6 to 7 years, realize now that they were caught in a massive mortgage laundering scam. The banks lured unqualified applicants into "easy-term" loans to so they could peddle their "fishwrap" mortgage paper to clueless investors. The con worked so well, that housing prices doubled or--in some cases--tripled in value. But the inflated prices did not reflect supply/demand fundamentals. They reflected fraud-- industrial-scale fraud that created an $8 trillion housing bubble. Now the bubble has burst and prices are returning to trend. That means foreclosures will rise while millions of homeowners will slip deeper into the red.
This is from Bloomberg News:
"The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market. Shadow inventory—the supply of homes in default or foreclosure that may be offered for sale—is preventing prices from bottoming after a 28 percent plunge from 2006, according to analysts from Moody’s Analytics Inc., Fannie Mae, Morgan Stanley and Barclays Plc. Those properties are in addition to houses that are vacant or that may soon be put on the market by owners.
“The best thing that could happen is for prices to get to a level that clears the market,” said Joshua Shapiro chief U.S. economist of Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc, who predicts prices may fall another 10 percent to 15 percent. “Right now, buyers know it hasn’t hit bottom, so they’re sitting on the sidelines.” (U.S. Home Prices Face 3-Year Drop as Inventory Surge Looms, John Gittlesohn and Kathleen Howley, Bloomberg)
The Obama administration has tried everything to boost housing sales--incentives, subsidies, tax breaks, even record-low interest rates--but nothing has worked. Now it looks like they’re ready to throw in the towel and let prices fall, but that presents risks, too. Presently, there’s a backlog of 4 million homes listed with brokers. (At the current pace, it would take 12 months to sell that number of homes.) However, as Bloomberg notes, there’s another 12 million properties that have been kept off the market. As those homes…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(