The financial crisis hasn’t been kind to General Electric Co. Its stock has lost almost half its value, the government has stepped in to prop up its enormous financial arm, and sales have slumped in core industrial businesses.
But Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt now has his eye on a huge new pool of potential revenue: Uncle Sam’s stimulus dollars. Mr. Immelt, a registered Republican, quips about the shift in thinking in the nation’s corner offices: "We’re all Democrats now."
GE has high hopes for the strategy. It says that over the next three years or so it could bring in as much as $192 billion from projects funded by governments around the globe, such as electric-grid modernization, renewable-energy generation and health-care technology upgrades.
The company is just starting to see a payoff. Last month, for example, President Barack Obama announced $3.4 billion in government-stimulus grants for power-grid projects. About one-third of the recipients are GE customers. GE expects them to use a good chunk of that money to buy its equipment.
"The government has moved in next door, and it ain’t leaving," Mr. Immelt said at the International Economic Forum of the Americas in Montreal in June. "You could fight it if you want, but society wants change. And government is not going away."
The 53-year-old executive supported the presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain, yet scored an invitation onto the President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. Inside GE, he pushed his managers hard to devise plans for capturing government money.
As part of that effort, GE has promoted policy proposals such as a government-backed power-grid modernization, and pressed the government to increase the size of stimulus grants for that purpose. It also has helped customers design projects and apply for government money, with the expectation that those customers will then buy GE equipment.
GE isn’t in agreement with the Obama administration on some proposals. Its GE Capital financial unit, which contributed nearly half of its earnings in recent years, received government backing for its debt when the credit markets seized up last fall. Now GE is lobbying against proposals that would separate GE Capital or its industrial-loan company…
Two Week Wrap-Up - Trading Our Range
by Phil - December 6th, 2009 7:58 am
Your "crystal ball" was dead-on with the insights into the report on jobs as well as the initial rise and then correction. Truly impressive. - Champstar2
We didn’t have a weekly wrap-up last week because of the holiday.
In our Nov 21st Wrap-Up, I had said next week we’ll be watching to see if we can get more bullish above our 25% lines at: Dow 10,250, S&P 1,100, Nasdaq 2,187, NYSE 7,000 and Russell 600 and that became the bottom of our new range while I sent out a 9:41 Alert to our Members on Nov 23rd sticking with our upside targets of Dow 10,471, S&P 1,113, Nas 2,205, NYSE 7,266 and Russell 605. That has been a very reliable range to play for the past two weeks and we’ve been having a good time playing both ends of it.
Rather than just wrapping up this week’s moves, I thought we’d add the prior week as the pattern is very much the same (and it was the same the week before) so it certainly bears (oops, don’t say bears!) studying. Of course, when I talk about patterns, I don’t just mean the chart pattern where we have all of our gains for the week on Monday and Tuesday on low volume and then larger volume selling for the rest of the week as the funds who pump the futures up dump their ill-gotten gains on retail investors. I’m talking about the global new patterns, as reported by the MSM, that make this sort of manipulation so effective. It’s not that I’m so good at predicting things - it’s really just that I’m good at spotting the BS…
Monday - Stuffing the Futures for Thanksgiving
I was pointing out that morning that 90% of the market gains since October had been coming on a single day each week and how a lot of that was happening in the very thinly-traded Futures market, where a few thousand shares traded overnight are able to lever the entire US market up by Trillions of Dollars. It’s a very sick and broken system that has been seized by manipulators to yank investors around, making sure retail investors have little ability to participate in these wild market moves as the game is already over by the time trading starts the next day.
This week, we had 2 days like that with both Tuesday and Friday gapping up over 100 points at the open, accounting for 250% of the…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Bearish Risk Reversal Anchored in Royal Caribbean Cruises
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 30th, 2009 4:10 pm
Today’s tickers: RCL, GE, YHOO, XLF, X, FCX, AIG, CF, JAVA & UAUA
RCL - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. – Bearish option traders clawed-aboard global cruise company, Royal Caribbean, today despite the 0.5% increase in shares during the trading session to $24.24. A large-volume risk reversal in the June 2010 contract indicates rougher seas could cloud RCL’s horizon. One investor sold 20,000 calls at the June 30 strike for an average premium of 1.70 apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of put options at the lower June 20 strike for 2.25 each. The net cost of the reversal amounts to 55 cents per contract. The investor responsible for the trade is likely long shares of the underlying stock. If this is the case, the long put position established today, provides downside protection beneath the effective breakeven point at $19.45. Conversely, if shares surge during the next seven months, the underlying stock position will be called away from the trader if shares exceed $30.00 by expiration in June.
GE - General Electric Co. – A sold straddle on General Electric this afternoon indicates one investor expects shares to settle at $16.00 by expiration in June of 2010. Shares edged slightly lower by less than 0.50% to $15.88 in late afternoon trading. The trader looked to the June 16 strike to sell approximately 5,000 calls for a premium of 1.61 apiece and 5,000 puts at the same strike for 1.89 each. The gross premium pocketed by the investor amounts to 3.50 per contract. The trader keeps the full 3.50 premium on the straddle if shares center at $16.00 through expiration. The investor may take profits ahead of expiration by buying back the short straddle for less than 3.50 per contract. Premiums on both calls and puts are elevated today because of the 6% increase in option implied volatility on the stock to 35.50%. The trader benefits from lower volatility on GE and from eroding time value of option premiums. Both factors drag option premiums lower and allow the trader to buy back the straddle in a profitable manner.
YHOO - Yahoo!, Inc. – The 0.5% decline in shares of the internet company to $14.93 did not deter one investor from taking a bullish stance in the April 2010 contract today. It appears the trader put on a ratio call spread to position for a rebound in shares by expiration. The investor purchased 2,500 calls at…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Bank of America Call Options Fly Off the Shelves
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 24th, 2009 4:09 pm
Today’s tickers: BAC, GE, SEED, EWZ, DE, STLD, LCC, SEED & DLTR
BAC - Bank of America – Long-term Bank of America bulls are out in full force today, scooping up call options like they’re going out of style. BAC’s shares are off slightly by less than 1% to $16.19. Plain-vanilla call buying in the January 2011 contract indicates investors expect shares to surge over the next 13 months. A large chunk of 50,000 calls were picked up at the January 25 strike for an average premium of 86 cents apiece. Shares must rally 60% from the current price to breach the $25.86 breakeven point on the trade. Twice as many calls were coveted at the higher January 30 strike where 100,000 calls were purchased for 45 cents each. The investor responsible for the massive position breaks even if shares jump 88% to $30.45 by expiration. Finally, another BAC-optimist established a ratio call spread in the same contract. The investor purchased 20,000 calls at the January 20 strike for 1.95 apiece, spread against the sale of 40,000 calls at the higher January 30 strike for 46 cents premium each. The net cost of the spread amounts to 1.03 per contract and positions the trader to profit if shares exceed $21.03 by expiration in January of 2011. Maximum potential profits available on the transaction amount to 8.97 per contract. Option implied volatility on Bank of America is currently 38.65% – a scant 2.93% above the 52-week volatility low of 35.77% – attained back on October 20, 2009.
GE - General Electric – A massive bullish bet on General Electric today indicates one investor expects shares to surge 43.8% in the next 13 months. Shares are currently up just under 1% to $16.16. It looks like a staggering 131,500 calls were purchased at the January 2011 22.5 strike for a premium of 76 cents per contract. The trader is apparently expecting GE’s shares to jump at least 43.8% to the breakeven point at $23.26 by expiration in January of 2011. Option implied volatility on General Electric is down to a one-year low of 29.46%.
SEED - Origin Agritech Ltd. – Frenzied options activity continues today on Beijing-based seed producer, Origin Agritech, following yesterday’s announcement that the firm received approval from China’s Ministry of Agriculture to sell its genetically modified phytase corn. Shares are currently up 4% to $10.86, down from an intraday high – and 52-week high –…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
GE CEO Plays Kiss Ass With Obama
by ilene - November 18th, 2009 12:54 pm
No, we’re not all democrats now, some of us are just plain disgusted. - Ilene
GE CEO Plays Kiss Ass With Obama
Courtesy of Mish
GE, the financial company masquerading as a manufacturer, has its eyes on the Pot of Government Stimulus Gold.
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
25% Off the Top Tuesday
by Phil - November 17th, 2009 8:09 am
10,500 - that’s 75% of 14,000 in the Dow!
On the S&P we topped out all the way up at 1,550 in October, 2007 so 1,162 would be the target there. For the Nasdaq it’s 2,100 (already over), 7,750 on the NYSE is still far away and 637 on the Russell is tantalizingly close (5%ish). The SOX still need to gain 30% to get back to 400 and the the Transports are going to need a lot of gas to get back to 2,250. (see Fallond’s breakout charts here)
Oil was $100 a barrel in October 2007 so $75 is right on track and gold is clearly our over-achiever, UP 42% from 2 years ago and that is "obviously" according to the pundits, because the dollar is trading 1.5% lower than it was back then. We are being led higher by great companies like XOM who, at $75 are well above their 75% level at $67. This is VERY impressive since they earned $9.4Bn in Q3 ‘07 and just $4.7Bn last Q on 20% less sales but that doesn’t stop investors (or at least tradebots) from snapping them up at these prices.
TRV was added to the Dow and that stock is now OVER the 2007 highs of $52.50, which is really impressive as they are doing it with less revenues ($200M) and less earnings ($263M, 21%). Perhaps we are seeing a pattern? Earn 50% less, like XOM and get valued 16% lower, earn 21% less, like TRV and get valued 5% HIGHER. CAT was at $70 in Q3, 2007 with $11.4Bn in sales and a $927M profit so OF COURSE they are at $60 now (down just 14%) on $7.3Bn in sales and $404M in profits. Just like XOM, 56% less earnings equals a 14% haircut on the stock price. After all, you can’t fool these savvy investors, can you?
I’ll be going through the Dow in detail this weekend as we set up our new Buy List for Members as (if we are going to accept the premise that these investors are not crazy) there are certainly some bargains in the Dow like VZ (got ‘em already), who earned $1.3Bn on $23.8Bn in sales 2 years ago and earned $1.2Bn on $27.3Bn in sales last Q, yet they are still trading 25% below where they were. INTC made more money on less sales but they are trading 20% off while DIS made more money on more…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
GE Misses Thanks To Ugly Financial Unit (GE)
by ilene - October 16th, 2009 10:00 am
GE Misses Thanks To Ugly Financial Unit (GE)
Courtesy of Vincent Fernando at Clusterstock
General Electric missed EPS expectations by two cents, reporting $0.22 for the third quarter. Revenue fell 20%, though this was largely caused by a 30% drop in revenue for the company’s Capital Finance segment as the company tries to pare back this troubled business’s operations.
While revenue fell for other segments as well, by a significant 9 - 18% each, margins improved substantially for all of them.
Overal operating profit fell 26% largely due to an 87% drop in profit from the Capital Finance business. Ex-Capital Finance, operating profit actually rose 4% to $4,179 million from $4,017 million.
It’s thus important to strip out the financial unit when judging the current operational situation, especially since it is being purposefully pared back.
Revenue fell by far less on this measure.
GE: Revenues were $37.8 billion, in line with our expectations. Industrial sales were down 13%. Industrial organic sales, which exclude the impact of FX and the 2008 Olympics, were down 8%. GE Capital Services (GECS) revenues declined 31%, driven by Capital Finance ending net investment reduction ahead of plan and the Penske Truck Leasing Co., L.P. deconsolidation.
While the financial arm still unfortunately poses an element of uncertainty for the stock, at least it didn’t post an operating loss.
.gif)
Ge Webcast Press Release 10162009
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Plum Creek Options Active
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 9th, 2009 5:06 pm
Today’s tickers: PCL, TBT, GE, OXY, C, ODP, RMBS & S
PCL - Plum Creek Timber – It appears that an investor sold a 15,000 lots strangle on paper-manufacturer, Plum Creek using February options. The implied volatility reading on the share price of 38% remains above the 31% on the share price performance. Call premium at the 35 strike was sold at 1.15 and pushed it lower by 4% on the day while the 10% decline in put premium was accounted for by simultaneous selling of puts at the 25 strike price. Together the premium of 2.05 implies that this investor expects that shares in Plum Creek remain hemmed between $37.05 and $22.95 during the next five months. Shares are 0.4% higher today at $31.32. There is also action at the same expiration 30 series where 5,000 calls traded close to a 3.40 asking price while puts traded on identical volume at a mid-market premium of 2.63. This is more opaque than the strangle and could represent a reversal in which a Plum Creek bull is selling puts to purchase calls. However, it could also be a sold strangle in a similar vane to the above. The currently implied trading range in this case would be between $23.97 to $36.03.
TBT – ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF – With today’s comments from Fed chairman Bernanke sending bond prices spiraling, investors have targeted call options on the inverse exchange traded fund, TBT, to target a continuation in the move. Likely investors expect further normalization in the yield curve as the discussion on a tighter policy stance expands. As bond yields have fallen during the recent four months, the price of this ETF has slipped from near $60 per share to $42. Today its price stands at $46.14 for a 4.8% gain. Note that the fund focuses on the 20-year area of the yield curve and is double leveraged, which account for today’s sharp price movement. Investors targeted call options in expectation of a further move and used October calls up to the 49 strike to play that move. They also bought calls at the 46 through 50 strike prices.
GE – General Electric – Option sellers chose to write call premium at the December contract using the 21 strike price today. We can see around 7,000 calls sold at premiums between 9-11 cents as shares in the conglomerate slip by 0.6% to stand at $16.13…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
$100,000 Portfolio Update - Week 5
by Phil - October 4th, 2009 8:28 am
Well this has been annoying…
After 30 days of trading our current portfolio value is just $100,454.39 as we took quite a setback when we sold naked calls ahead of the move up. Fortunately, we didn’t lose our cool and rode it out. In fact, we only made one trade in the past two weeks so there hasn’t been much to report and there still isn’t but the end of our first month is a good time for an update. Of course, we do have a lot of outstanding October Premium to collect so the next two weeks are when we make our real money…
We still have $92,315 in cash so plenty of buying power should we choose to deploy it but we are sticking with our plan of scaling into the postions we have, which means we’re letting them run out through October 16th expirations and we’ll see if we finally get the bargains we’ve been waiting for to set up our longer term bull plays. For now, in this VERY conservative, low-touch portfolio, we’ve been following Warren Buffett’s Investing Rule #1: Don’t lose money!
| Description | Price Paid | Last Price | Qty | Market Value | Margin Req. | Profit Loss | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIG CALL 40 Oct 09 | $6.30 | $5.50 | -1 | $550.00 | $1,196.20 | $80.00 | 12.70% |
| On target with AIG at $43.40, this is typical of our outstanding sales with the VIX so high - we just have to wait. | |||||||
| AMZN CALL 90 Oct 09 | $3.60 | $2.80 | -10 | $2,800.00 | $16,127.50 | $800.00 | 22.22% |
| We wouldn’t do this play if we needed the margin but a nice $2,800 to collect if AMZN stays below $90 | |||||||
| BAC CALL 10 Jan 11 | $8.60 | $7.50 | 5 | $3,750.00 | $0.00 | -$550.00 | -12.79% |
| BAC CALL 17 Oct 09 | $1.27 | $0.43 | -5 | $215.00 | $1,110.50 | $420.00 | 66.14% |
| BAC PUT 17 Oct 09 | $0.97 | $1.09 | -5 | $545.00 | $1,770.50 | -$60.00 | -12.37% |
| BAC PUT 20 Jan 11 | $5.45 | $6.30 | 5 | $3,150.00 | $0.00 | $425.00 | 15.60% |
| Drifting right around our $17 target is perfect. If they get cheaper, we buy more! | |||||||
| C CALL 4 Mar 10 | $1.30 | $1.09 | 10 | $1,090.00 | $0.00 | -$210.00 | -16.15% |
| C PUT 4 Dec 09 | $0.46 | $0.32 | -10 | $320.00 | $720.00 | $140.00 | 30.43% |
| C PUT 5 Oct 09 | $0.52 | $0.57 | -5 | $285.00 | $624.00 | -$25.00 | -9.62% |
| We DO want to own C long-term so no big deal but needs to be watched closely if they head lower still. | |||||||
| CROX CALL 4 Mar 10 | $3.70 | $2.99 | 5 | $1,495.00 | $0.00 | -$355.00 | -19.19% |
| CROX CALL 7 Oct 09 | $0.50 | $0.13 | -5 | $65.00 | $112.75 | $185.00 | 74.00% |
| CROX PUT 7 Oct 09 | $0.90 | $0.80 | -5 | $400.00 | $862.75 | $50.00 | 11.11% |
| A bit low - shame we never filled the long put or this would be perfect (same with C). | |||||||
| Description | Price Paid | Last Price | Qty | Market Value | Margin Req. | Profit Loss | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE CALL 16 Oct 09 | $1.29 | $0.34 | -20 | $680.00 | $4,008.00 | $1,900.00 | 73.64% |
| GE PUT 16 Oct 09 | $0.88 | $0.99 | -10 | $990.00 | $3,294.00 | -$110.00 | -12.50% |
| We need a .50 stop on the $16 calls and for .10 we buy them out this week. We’re fine with GE put to us net $15.12. | |||||||
| LZB - Stock | $9.21 | $7.97 | 500 | $3,985.00 | $0.00 | -$620.00 | -13.46% |
| LZB CALL 7.5 Jan 10 | $2.70 | $1.40 | -5 | $700.00 | $0.00 | $650.00 | 48.15% |
| LZB PUT 7.5 Jan 10 | $1.15 | $1.10 | -5 | $550.00 | $925.00 | $25.00 | 4.35% |
| Right on target to get called away so no change. | |||||||
| MHP PUT 25 Oct 09 | $0.80 | $1.25 | -5 | $625.00 | $2,471.50 | -$225.00 | -56.25% |
| We actually want this stock so not worried at all. | |||||||
| PSQ CALL 50 Jan 10 | $3.05 | $2.50 | 10 | $2,500.00 | $0.00 | -$545.00 | -17.90% |
| These are doing their job… |
|||||||
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
Human Genome Sees Large Volatility Play in Late Trade
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 30th, 2009 4:31 pm
Today’s tickers: HGSI, AET, DTV, EEM, CMG, XLE, GE & NKE
HGSI - Option plays executed late in the trading session drew our attention to biopharmaceutical company, Human Genome Sciences, Inc. Shares of HGSI are currently off slightly by less than 0.25% to $18.80. The first transaction appears to be the work of an investor expecting volatility on Human Genome Sciences to decline. The trader initiated a sold straddle by selling 20,000 calls at the October 19 strike for 80 cents each, in combination with the sale of 20,000 puts at the same strike for 80 pennies apiece. The gross premium pocketed by the investor amounts to 1.60 per contract for a total of $3,200,000. The total amount of premium on the straddle strategy is retained by the trader as long as the stock settles at $19.00 by expiration next month. Perhaps the investor is selling into today’s higher volatility reading of 123% from 106% at the start of the week. We note that the transaction could be interpreted in another manner. It is possible that this investor is bearish on HGSI and thus executing a reversal play. If this is the case, the trader sold 20,000 calls for 80 cents in order to buy 20,000 puts for 80 cents each. If the trade was a bearish risk reversal, the investor offset the cost of getting long the put options by selling the calls and put on the trade for free. Profits to the downside will increase for the trader if shares decline beneath $19.00 by expiration. – Human Genome Sciences, Inc. –
AET - The health care benefits company popped onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one investor shed a large chunk of call options in the November contract. A number of health care benefits/insurance firms experienced share price declines today perhaps after the Senate Finance Committee rejected two amendments to put a public health-insurance option into the committee’s health-system reform proposal on Tuesday. Shares of AET are trading 1% lower to $27.96. Approximately 20,000 calls were sold short at the November 31 strike for an average premium of 92 cents apiece. The investor responsible for the sale may have executed the trade for a number of reasons. One possibility is that the trader is long the stock and adding income to his portfolio by selling covered calls. Another viable explanation is that the investor is short the stock…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
General Electric Sees Bears Jump to Options Defense
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 24th, 2009 4:32 pm
Today’s tickers: GE, EEM, SLV, F, VALE, FCX, M, ABX & C
GE - The more than 3% decline in shares of GE today inspired bearish options activity to unfold in the November contract. One investor chose to employ a put spread by purchasing 5,500 puts at the November 16 strike for 67 cents apiece, spread against the sale of the same number of contracts at the lower November 13 strike for 14 cents each. The net cost of the pessimistic play amounts to 53 cents per contract. If the investor is long shares of the underlying stock, downside protection on the put play will kick in if shares decline beneath the breakeven price of $15.47 by expiration day. The strike prices selected by the trader indicate that while he is bracing for further declines in the stock, he does not expect GE to decline much beneath $13.00 in the next few months. – General Electric –
EEM - The EEM jumped higher on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner following bullish options action in the January contract. Shares of the ETF are currently down 2% to $37.85. The investor responsible for the transaction looked to the January 38 strike to purchase 6,500 calls for an average premium of 2.78 apiece. The calls were spread against the sale of 6,500 in-the-money puts at the same strike for which the trader received 2.91 each. The risk reversal results in a net credit of 13 cents to the investor. The credit is retained by the trader if shares settle at $38.00 by expiration day. Additional profits will accumulate if shares of the ETF rally through $38.00. – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index –
SLV - Large-volume chunks of calls traded on the silver exchange-traded fund today by one investor who appears to be taking a bullish stance in the face of a more than 3.5% decline in shares to $15.96. The trader looked to the near-term October 16 strike to purchase 30,000 calls for an average premium of 65 cents apiece. The purchase was spread against the sale of the same number of calls at the January 2011 18 strike for a premium of 2.35 each. The transaction results in a net credit of 1.70 to the investor. Perhaps this individual expects the near-term calls to land in-the-money by expiration. If this occurs, he may exercise the options and take delivery of the underlying stock…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
Facebook
Twitter
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(