Stock World Weekly 2-27-11
by ilene - February 27th, 2011 8:22 am
Here’s the latest edition of Stock World Weekly: Irresistible Forces Meet Immovable Objects. - Ilene
Excerpt:
On Saturday, February 27, the Security Council of the United Nations (UN) voted unanimously to institute sanctions on Libya, including travel bans and freezing the assets of Muammar al-Gaddafi and others associated with his regime. Protests have dragged into their twelfth day, and protestors refuse to yield in the face of utterly horrific retaliation by Gaddafi’s loyal forces. U.S. ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice said, “When atrocities are committed against innocents, the international community must act with one voice – and tonight it has.”
The Telegraph reported over the weekend that Gaddafi apparently made good on his threats to trigger a civil war, using irregular forces largely composed of hired mercenaries to launch a counterattack against protesters. “Anywhere we go there is danger,” said one woman, a 28-year-old mother of four who asked not to be named. “All we want is food and fresh water for our children but it is impossible to find. Security is the only concern of the authorities.”
An accurate report of the death toll is impossible to obtain at this time, but on Wednesday, Italy’s Foreign Minister, Franco Frattini said, “We believe that the estimates of about 1,000 are credible.” The situation in Libya has deteriorated since then. Multiple stories coming in from all over the country have cited dozens to hundreds of casualties in each city. It appears that Libya has slipped into the abyss of complete social breakdown and civil war.
This is just one example of the tide of popular unrest that has been unleashed in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s and other central banks’ inflationary policies. The chart below shows the U.S. Adjusted Monetary Base increasing from $1.75Tn in 2009, to $2.0Tn in 2010, and now nearing $2.3Tn, an increase of $300Bn in just two months! This represents an increase of 35% in less than 18 months. (The U.S. Monetary Base is the total amount of currency that is circulating in the hands of the public or in the commercial bank deposits held in reserves of member banks of the Federal Reserve System.)
Another revolt of a more peaceful nature took place in Ireland. The long-dominant Fianna Fail party was brutally rejected by Irish voters, taking just 15.1% of the vote and losing…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Time to Spill the Beans?
by ilene - December 3rd, 2010 3:38 am
Going through the SEC filing and press releases by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters led Sam Antar to ask Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Time to Spill the Beans? Specific dates would make a good first step. – Ilene
Courtesy of Sam Antar, White Collar Fraud
To truly exonerate itself after the discovery of certain material violations of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR) needs to come clean with investors and disclose exactly when it found certain accounting errors. In addition, Green Mountain needs to provide clearer and more transparent disclosures to investors about the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) inquiry and the discovery of those errors.
Timing of certain disclosures
On Monday, September 20, 2010, the SEC notified Green Mountain Coffee Roasters that it was conducting an informal inquiry and requested it voluntarily submit information concerning “revenue recognition practices and the Company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors.”
In connection with the preparation of its financial results for its fourth fiscal quarter, the Company’s management discovered an immaterial accounting error relating to the margin percentage it had been using to eliminate the inter-company markup in its K-Cup inventory balance residing at its Keurig business unit. Management discovered that the gross margin percentage used to eliminate the inter-company markup resulted in a lower margin applied to the Keurig ending inventory balance effectively overstating consolidated inventory and understating cost of sales. Management determined that the accounting error arose during fiscal 2007 and analyzed the quantitative impact from that point forward to June 26, 2010.
As of June 26, 2010, there is a cumulative $7.6 million overstatement of pre-tax income. Net of tax, the cumulative error resulted in a $4.4 million overstatement of net income or a $0.03 cumulative impact on earnings per share.
After evaluating the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the error in accordance with applicable accounting literature, including Staff Accounting Bulletins published by the SEC, the Company, with the participation of the audit committee of the Board of Directors,
…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Monday Market Movement – “Like Moths to a Flame!”
by Phil - November 29th, 2010 8:01 am
"Investors are drawn to China like moths to a flame." – Neil Woodford
That’s a great quote. Neil is the head of investments at Invesco, running the UK’s largest investment fund with a decade of 15% average returns under his belt so let’s take the man seriously for starters. Mr Woodford’s concerns coincide with figures showing that food prices in China were 10.1pc higher in October than in the same month last year – a level of inflation not seen since mid-2007. This is deepening concern that China’s economy is now starting to overheat.
"I do not deny that in the long term an economy like China will grow much more rapidly than the West. But I think one has to be very careful about correlating growth necessarily with economic opportunity, and opportunity to make money," said Mr. Woodford.
And so it is that the moths are all drawn to the light, even as it burns them. For they are blindly drawn to its grace, hitting their heads about the light, destroying their senses, going without food, and becoming easy prey to those that hunt them. Even those few moths that will get within the embrase of the light will burn unable to escape, ever.
There was no escape for Ireland this weekend as the IMF and EU pinned the country down and forced them to swallow a $130Bn aid package at (get this!) 6.7%. $17.5Bn of this money is to come out of Irish pension funds all just to make sure Bill Gross doesn’t lose any of the money he lent to Ireland! I honestly cannot tell you who is the more vile, despicable villain in this debacle. Is it the banks, who started this mess with their idiotic lending practices? Is it the lobbyists and lawmakers, who turned Ireland into a tax haven for EU Corporations and destroyed the economy by funneling tax breaks to the wealthy? Is it the Irish Government, who stupidly bailed out the failing banks with guarantees that put the nation on the hook for more money than their entire GDP. Is it the bondholders, who drove up the cost of financing Ireland’s newfound debt to levels that threatened to break the National Bank or is it the EU & IMF, who are effectively playing the role of loan sharks, borrowing $100Bn at…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Nvidia Pops After Healing Chip Strategy
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 12th, 2010 4:44 pm
Today’s tickers: NVDA, GMCR, EEM & GLD
NVDA - Nvidia Corp. – It appears that Nvidia’s strategic change might be paying off after challenges to its core chipset business from AMD and Intel threatened to derail its fortunes. Earlier results showed profits beat expectations albeit by a penny but prompted the company to raise revenue forecasts in a sign of a revival in personal computer demand. The company’s revival involves new products in the market for chips that run add-in graphics to computers. The success is reviving investors’ appetite for the stock, which had earlier lost one-third of its value during 2010. On September 24, our market scanners picked up on a brace of bullish calendar call spreads on the stock using nearby January and March options against January 2012 call options. At the time there were also suggestions in the market that Oracle might be looking to acquire Nvidia. Following a near-8% pop in the stock today to $13.63 the investors appears to be taking a healthy profit on at least part of the trade by selling almost 20,000 January calls at the $14 strike and buying back a similar short position in the January 2012 calls at the $22.50 strike. The bullish positioning at the time cost this investor a mere 16 cents to enact and from what we can tell this morning the trade was closed at a healthy 81% gain.
GMCR - Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. – We’re not quite sure the reason behind a three-day slump in shares at operator of the fast-growing Keurig single-cup coffee brewer is, but shares have slumped by 11% to $31.05 on Friday. Perhaps investors are expecting demand destruction as a shortage of beans sends coffee futures above $2.00 per pound. However, perhaps growing threats to the niche market are…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Interesting Issues in Timing of Green Mountain Insider Stock Sales and Disclosure of SEC Inquiry
by ilene - October 21st, 2010 10:13 pm
Interesting Issues in Timing of Green Mountain Insider Stock Sales and Disclosure of SEC Inquiry
Courtesy of Sam Antar at White Collar Fraud
Interesting timing
On Monday, September 20, 2010, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR) was notified of a Securities and Exchange Commission informal inquiry and request for voluntary information concerning ìrevenue recognition practices and the Companyís relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors.î
On Tuesday, September 21, 2010, executive officer Michelle Stacy exercised 5,000 options and immediately sold her shares at $37 per share. Of the 5,000 shares bought and sold, options for 4,375 shares did not expire until November 3, 2018 and options for 625 shares did not expire until March 12, 2019. What was the urgency in exercising her options so soon?
After the stock market closed on September 28, 2010, Green Mountain finally disclosed the SEC inquiry to investors in an 8-K filing which included certain other material disclosures.
On September 29, 2010, Green Mountain stock dropped $5.95 per share to close at $31.06 per share, a 16.1% drop in market value that day.
According to the SEC:
Illegal insider trading refers generally to buying or selling a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, while in possession of material, nonpublic information about the security. Insider trading violations may also include "tipping" such information, securities trading by the person "tipped," and securities trading by those who misappropriate such information.
Michelle Stacy will have to answer questions about the timing of her option exercise and simultaneous sale of stock after Green Mountain received notice of the SEC inquiry, but before the company disclosed it to investors. The SEC might want to find out if Stacy any prior knowledge of the SEC inquiry when she sold her stock before it was disclosed to investors.
Will Stacy claim that even though she is among the five most highly-paid executive officers of the company and is President of its key Keurig business segment, that she did not know anything about the SEC inquiry and her sale of stock was a mere coincidence?
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Code of Ethics
According to Green Mountainís Code of Ethics:
As a publicly traded company, GMCR is required to adhere to federal laws and regulations prohibiting the disclosure of "insider
…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
One More Cup of Coffee Addendum
by Sabrient - October 21st, 2010 4:03 am
One More Cup of Coffee Addendum
By Scott Brown at Sabrient, Ilene at Phil’s Stock World, and special thanks to Sam Antar
Last night, we decided to replace the short in JOE, covered yesterday, with a short in GMCR for the DHH virtual portfolio. We noted:
There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company’s prospects or valuation. However, when a week after the last insider sale, the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company’s methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look more dark and mysterious. It is worth noting that Keurig accounted for over half of GMCR revenue last year, so when the President of Keurig is selling, it is worth a further look. When the SEC discloses an inquiry into the companies accounting it is worth more than a look. Multiple class-action lawsuits have been filed against GMCR since the announcement by the SEC, yet the stock has rebounded from a low of $26.87 to a close today of $31.31. Rumors of Nestle having interest in GMCR resurfaced on October 12, despite the SEC’s inquiry and pending class-action lawsuits.
To further examine our initial observation, we took a guided tour though the SEC filings, with Sam Antar, who specializes in reviewing SEC filings. The first thing we discovered on the SEC site was that the last date Michelle Stacy exercised 5000 options and then sold the stock for $37 was September 21, 2010. This transaction was reported in a Form 4 filing on Sept. 23, 2010.
Next, we looked at the most recent 8K Form filed and we found that the disclosure of the SEC inquiry occurred on September 28, 2010. However, notification of the SEC inquiry occurred eight days earlier, on September 20, 2010:
On September 20, 2010, the staff of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement informed the Company that it was conducting an inquiry and made a request for a voluntary production of documents and information. Based on the request, the Company believes the focus of the inquiry concerns certain revenue recognition practices and the Company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors. The Company, at the direction of the audit committee of the Company’s board of directors, is cooperating fully with the SEC staff’s inquiry.
This information…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
One More Cup of Coffee Addendum
by ilene - October 21st, 2010 3:41 am
One More Cup of Coffee Addendum
By Scott Brown at Sabrient, Ilene at Phil’s Stock World, and special thanks to Sam Antar
Last night, we decided to replace the short in JOE, covered yesterday, with a short in GMCR for the DHH virtual portfolio. We noted:
There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company’s prospects or valuation. However, when a week after the last insider sale, the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company’s methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look more dark and mysterious. It is worth noting that Keurig accounted for over half of GMCR revenue last year, so when the President of Keurig is selling, it is worth a further look. When the SEC discloses an inquiry into the companies accounting it is worth more than a look. Multiple class-action lawsuits have been filed against GMCR since the announcement by the SEC, yet the stock has rebounded from a low of $26.87 to a close today of $31.31. Rumors of Nestle having interest in GMCR resurfaced on October 12, despite the SEC’s inquiry and pending class-action lawsuits.
To further examine our initial observation, we took a guided tour though the SEC filings, with Sam Antar, who specializes in reviewing SEC filings. The first thing we discovered on the SEC site was that the last date Michelle Stacy exercised 5000 options and then sold the stock for $37 was September 21, 2010. This transaction was reported in a Form 4 filing on Sept. 23, 2010.
Next, we looked at the most recent 8K Form filed and we found that the disclosure of the SEC inquiry occurred on September 28, 2010. However, notification of the SEC inquiry occurred eight days earlier, on September 20, 2010:
On September 20, 2010, the staff of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement informed the Company that it was conducting an inquiry and made a request for a voluntary production of documents and information. Based on the request, the Company believes the focus of the inquiry concerns certain revenue recognition practices and the Company’s relationship with one of its fulfillment vendors. The Company, at the direction of the audit committee of the Company’s board of directors, is cooperating fully with the SEC staff’s inquiry.
This information…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR
by ilene - October 20th, 2010 10:06 pm
DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR
By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World
Your sister sees the future
Like your momma and yourself
You’ve never learned to read or write
There’s no books upon your shelfAnd your pleasure knows no limits
Your voice is like a meadowlark
But your heart is like an ocean
Mysterious and darkOne more cup of coffee for the road
One more cup of coffee ‘fore I go
To the valley below – Bob Dylan
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) doesn’t at first glance seem like the type of company that would need to be “mysterious and dark” but when “pleasure knows no limits” it can down into a metaphorical valley. How does GMCR, engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses, churning out quarterly profits that meet analyst expectations while growing at 61% per year over the past five years, and expected to grow another 35% over the next five years, end up at #18 on the Sabrient VCU short ranking?
The fact that Michelle Stacy, President of Keurig (patented single cup brewing technology for GMCR), exercised 30,000 options at $6.20 on August 13, 2010 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $30.95 for gross proceeds of $928,500, again exercised 5,000 options at $6.20 on September 13, 2010 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $35.40 for gross proceeds of $177,000 and a week later exercised another 5,000 shares from $6.20-$9.14 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $37 for gross proceeds of $185,000 alone isn’t enough to raise any eyebrows or red flags.
There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company’s prospects or valuation. However, when a week after the last insider sale the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company’s methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look a bit more dark and mysterious. It is worth noting that Keurig accounted for over half of GMCR revenue last year, so when the President of Keurig is selling, it is worth a further look. When the SEC discloses an inquiry into the companies accounting it is…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR
by Sabrient - October 20th, 2010 9:59 pm
DARK HORSE HEDGE – One More Cup of Coffee Before You Go, GMCR
By Scott Brown at Sabrient, and Ilene at Phil’s Stock World
Your sister sees the future
Like your momma and yourself
You’ve never learned to read or write
There’s no books upon your shelfAnd your pleasure knows no limits
Your voice is like a meadowlark
But your heart is like an ocean
Mysterious and darkOne more cup of coffee for the road
One more cup of coffee ‘fore I go
To the valley below – Bob Dylan
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) doesn’t at first glance seem like the type of company that would need to be “mysterious and dark” but when “pleasure knows no limits” it can down into a metaphorical valley. How does GMCR, engaged in the specialty coffee and coffee maker businesses, churning out quarterly profits that meet analyst expectations while growing at 61% per year over the past five years, and expected to grow another 35% over the next five years, end up at #18 on the Sabrient VCU short ranking?
The fact that Michelle Stacy, President of Keurig (patented single cup brewing technology for GMCR), exercised 30,000 options at $6.20 on August 13, 2010 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $30.95 for gross proceeds of $928,500, again exercised 5,000 options at $6.20 on September 13, 2010 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $35.40 for gross proceeds of $177,000 and a week later exercised another 5,000 shares from $6.20-$9.14 and simultaneously sold the shares on the open market at $37 for gross proceeds of $185,000 alone isn’t enough to raise any eyebrows or red flags.
There are many reasons that insiders may sell shares which have nothing to do with their perception of the company’s prospects or valuation. However, when a week after the last insider sale the company discloses that the SEC is inquiring into the company’s methods for accounting for revenues, it starts to look a bit more dark and mysterious. It is worth noting that Keurig accounted for over half of GMCR revenue last year, so when the President of Keurig is selling, it is worth a further look. When the SEC discloses an inquiry into the companies accounting…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Bulls Bulk Up On DryShips Call Options
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 27th, 2010 4:07 pm
Today’s tickers: DRYS, PG, LCC, MHP, GDX, AMR, AMGN & GMCR
DRYS – DryShips, Inc. – A number of options players boarded the DryShips, Inc. bullish bandwagon this afternoon after the dry bulk carrier was upgraded to ‘equal-weight’ from ‘underweight’ and given a target share price of $5.50 at Morgan Stanley. DryShips’ shares jumped 9.95% in the second half of the trading day to touch an intraday high of $4.53. In- and out-of-the-money call options on the shipping firm were in high demand, particularly in the October and November contracts. Traders scooped up some 2,300 in-the-money calls at the October $4.0 strike for an average premium of $0.45 each. Optimists also picked up roughly 6,700 calls at the higher October $5.0 strike by shelling out an average premium of $0.05 apiece. DRYS’ shares would need to rally another 11.5% over today’s high of $4.53 in order for October $5.0 strike call buyers to make money above the average breakeven point at $5.05 by October expiration. Bulls looked to the November $5.0 strike to take ownership of some 4,000 call options at an average premium of $0.14 a-pop. Investors long the calls are prepared to profit should the price of the underlying stock increase another 13.5% in the next couple months to trade above $5.14 by November expiration. Options implied volatility on DryShips surged 10.9% to 48.14% by 3:40 pm ET.
PG – Procter & Gamble Co. – Shares of the consumer goods manufacturer edged 0.60% lower this afternoon to trade at $61.26 with 30 minutes remaining in the trading session. One pessimistic player appears to be building up downside protection on the stock through expiration in January 2012. The investor initiated a ratio put spread, buying 2,000 puts at the January 2012 $60 strike for a premium of $6.00 each, and selling 4,000 puts at the lower January 2012 $45 strike at a premium of $1.80 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $2.40 per contract. Thus, the investor starts to make money – or realize downside protection on a long position in shares – if the price of the underlying stock falls 6.00% to slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $57.60 by expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $12.60 per contract are available to the trader, but require PG’s shares to collapse down to $45.00. Options implied volatility on PG is up 7.3% at 14.78% as…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(