Phil's Stock World, Stock Options Trading & Information

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Phil - I am 3 month follower and shout a big thanks for all the good advice and training. I read all the materials and posts as suggested. I am retired CFO and took over my investments 2 years ago from broker after frustration with returns. I followed some conservative advice for retirees and have 60% bonds currently in a 5m portfolio. I had been doing covered calls on my stocks to boost returns and slowly am getting more aggressive after following your site and my son who has been with you for 6 months. I allocated 1.5m to stocks and am scaling up from 30%. I did some of the trades suggested in early June using Aug & Oct buy/writes on CSCO, WMT, MON, WFR, DO in addition to calls on XOM, CVX, PEP, PG, WM, T that I owned. Most are doing very well (4-24%) in 60 days. My good problem is that instead of getting longer, I will be making 6% quickly (50% plus annualized) and getting called away on many positions. What would you advise for getting long again. Thanks again for such a great job advising all of us!

- TXChili

Thanks for your thoughts against buying BP ahead of earnings (yesterdays' member comments). It announced a loss of $3.3b and is down 3% in pre-market but still just above the bottom of the chaneel of $40-$50.

- mSquare

The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)

- Chaps

A truly great website with a lot of information for investors. Whether you are a novice, seasoned, or a professional there is a lot to be gained about stock options and options trading from this very informative website.

- ZKatkin

Just closed out my V put for 50% in 24 hours thanks Phil!

- Humvee

I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. There are o shortcuts, no secret way to riches. Same with Phil's site- you need time and patience to start benefitting fully from his advice. But it is often spot on and also very useful, especially to me as I try to keep a level head in this turbulent stock market environment.

- Jordan

Phil: I loaded up big time yesterday on your suggestion of the AMZN September 75 naked puts. They are up 43%!

- Gel1

hil, I hit my targets for the year in my 401K (thanks in no small part to your site), so I cashed out of all positions a couple of weeks ago. Feels good... I'm conservative with this money –looking for 2% per month, which i've been able to do… thx.

- Lunar

I read with great interest your statement the other day that the DX is unlikely to break 76 or there will be great hell to pay, torrential amounts of tears shed, and gnashing of dentures all over the world. Well. I have had several short DX contracts in the $78ish range during the last month and upon your two statements 1) don't be greedy, and 2) 76 could be a bottom, I yesterday put a buy GTC order to close my positions at 76 and for some inexplicable reason the DX spiked down after the close and now I can safely say that once again you have confirmed for me that you have been one of the best investment services I have yet to come across. Almost to the point that I'm beginning to think that maybe I'm completely wrong about my political stance as well. Almost. In any event, I wanted you to know that this has been my third execution based on your comments and recommendations that I have followed and this one has also worked to my advantage. My subscription fee has been more than justified for the next year and there's some left over to pay for my stay in Toronto this week, dinner at Joso's in the Yorkville section of town. If I smoked I'd have a Montecristo to salute you. Be well, stay well.

- Flipspiceland

Phil/Eric/Cwan/Matt/Cap/etc.. - I've learned so much from all of you and want to thank you. I'm up 23% this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys!

- Josiah

Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

- Steve

Phil, I'm up 34x what I paid in fees for your service, and that only counts the trades I didn't think of myself. Thanks!

- Barfinger

By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!

- Microflux

You guys gotta give it to phil–the voice of reason yesterday, last nite and this morning.

- Corleone

Phil - I followed your great pick re F and sold short the 1011 2.50 puts (200 contracts) and paid for the next 10 years of membership fees…. Thanks!

- Gel1

I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.

- Gel1

Phil: Closed out ZION with 49 % gain!

- RMM

Phil is a master at keeping you laughing, as well as making you money. - It is like " laughing all the way to the bank!"

- Gel1

Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm. In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.

- Hoss

Phil: UNH, hedged stock position, doing great, up over 50 %,

- RMM

1,000% on SKF - It was a freakin' monster into the center field bleachers! I saw it play out live and squawked it from the StockTwits ID which 14k people follow: Home run trade of the week @philstockworld just knocked cover off ball w $SKF puts. http://bit.ly/piBL Great trade bud!

- Phil Pearlman - StockTwits

Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.

- Iflantheman

Phil - Wow…wow. The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering. It's this type of experience that I really hope to develop. I'm afraid I still can't see the moves, but I WILL learn. I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this place. Please keep it going!

- Where

Phil, 26% on the week for the 20% I day-trade, and since drinking the kool-aid last fall, the whole portfolio has doubled. Have a great weekend !!

- JRW III

Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS, closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

- RMM

Great calls this week!

- SNS1

Praising PSW for enlightenment is a bit akin to praising the Pope for being holy. I've been reading PSW for about two months now and have learned more about investing technique and the world in general than I've learned from the books and seminars I've paid for. Thanks for the enlightenment, the education, the guidance and the truth, which is not a commodity these days, but a virtue in short supply.

- Andy Morris

Way back did 20 of your suggested short BP Jan 11 26 P @ 4.3 now .85 — sold half. this am — paid for a years sub AGain!! thank you very much!

- Ban2

Phil Thank you very much, I appreciate your help and wisdom.

- CdsdpDean

thanks for the DNDN recommendation last week phil. that was moneeeee….

- Kwan

Posts Tagged ‘HOG’

Brazilian Stocks Capture Option Traders’ Imagination

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - October 15th, 2009 2:25 am

Today’s tickers: VALE, EWZ, NYX, PFE, HOG, XRT, S & ROVI

VALE – Vale S.A. – Rio de Janeiro-based mining company, Vale S.A., experienced a 6.25% surge in shares today to $26.57. Perhaps the jump in shares is due to unconfirmed news the company plans to invest $5.8 billion to expand projects in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. In options-land one investor took a bullish stance by selling puts to buy calls. It appears the risk reversal involved the sale of 4,000 puts at the November 23 strike for 45 cents apiece, spread against the purchase of 4,000 calls at the higher November 28 strike for 38 cents premium each. The investor receives a net credit of 7 pennies per contract on the trade. He will retain the full credit as long as shares of VALE remain higher than $23.00 through expiration day. To add to profits shares must climb 5% higher to surpass the breakeven price of $28.00.

EWZ – iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF – Bullish call action in the March contract today certainly jives with the 3.25% rally in shares of the exchange-traded fund to $75.18. An investor hoping for further upward movement in the price of EWZ shares enacted a call spread. The trader bought 2,500 calls at the now in-the-money March 73 strike for an average premium of 7.00 each, and simultaneously sold 2,500 calls at the higher March 78 strike for 4.54 apiece. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to 2.46 per contract. Thus, the investor stands to accumulate maximum potential profits of 2.54 if shares rise to $78.00 by expiration in March. Profits start to accumulate if shares break through $75.46, which is just 28 cents above the current price per share. But, the stock must climb 4% to $78.00 for the investor to revel in maximum available profits of $635,000.

NYX – NYSE Euronext, Inc. – Bullish call buying this afternoon pushed New York Stock Exchange operator, NYSE Euronext, onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner. Shares of NYX are currently trading 5% higher to stand at $29.81. Investors expecting continued upward movement in the stock scooped up call options in the November contract. The November 30 strike had 2,100 calls purchased for an average premium of 1.13 each, while the November 31 strike had 1,200 calls coveted for 82 cents premium apiece. Finally, super-bullish traders…

Tags: EWZ, HOG, NYX, PFE, ROVI, S, VALE, XRT

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Raging Gold Demand Delivers Gains for Barrick Gold Options Trader

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - September 3rd, 2009 5:57 pm

Today’s tickers: ABX, V, HOG & MCO

ABX - Notable options activity on the world’s largest producer of gold caught our eye today as the stock continues higher for the second day running. Shares of ABX rallied 2.5% to $38.93 as dollar weakness and rising demand for precious metals helped boost the price of gold to its highest level in three months. Option trades in the front months suggest investors believe the rally may taper off. One trader who initiated a call spread on Tuesday chose to unravel the position this morning to take in profits. He originally purchased the 6,000 lot spread at the October 37.5/41 strikes for a net cost of 70 cents per contract. Today he closed out the position by selling 6,000 calls at the October 37.5 strike for 2.95 each and buying back 6,000 calls at the higher October 41 strike for 1.45 apiece. The 1.50 credit received by closing out the call spread is reduced by the 70 cent purchase price of the original transaction, leaving the trader with net profits of 80 cents per contract. Thus, the investor has reeled in total profits of $480,000. Indications of lower volatility for ABX was apparent by the sold strangle play enacted in the September contract. Traders shed approximately 3,500 calls at the September 39 strike for a dollar apiece in conjunction with the sale of about 3,500 puts at the lower September 37 strike for 80 cents each. The gross premium pocketed on the sale amounts to 1.80 per contract and is full retained as long as shares remain ‘strangled’ within the confines of the strike prices previously described. – Barrick Gold Corp. –

V - Bullish risk reversals accumulated in the January 2011 contract on the credit card company this morning as far-term optimists shed put options to finance the purchase of calls. Shares of the firm were trading down earlier in the session, but have since recovered, gaining less than 0.5% to $70.20. Investors employing the reversal strategy looked to the January 70 strike price to sell 12,000 puts for a premium of 11.30 each. The sale of the puts more than offset the cost of picking up 12,000 calls at the higher January 85 strike for 6.00 per contract. Traders retain the 5.30 credit pocketed on the transaction if shares remain higher than $70.00 by expiration in January 2011. Additional profits could accumulate if…

Tags: ABX, HOG, MCO, V

1 Comment »

Channel Checkers: HOG and HOTT

by Insider Zone - July 6th, 2009 1:59 am

How would Phil trade the Channel Checkers report (below)?

The question we have to ask with HOG is "how much of this bad news is already priced into the stock?"

HOG is trading at 1/3 the average price of the first 3 quarters of 2008 and 2009 earnings are expected to be less than 1/2 of last year. The company is projected to earn just .26 in Q2 vs .95 last year yet "only" 36% of the respondents say business is worse than the same time last year and 12% say it is better. Just because you hear a negative sounding report on a stock does not mean you should automatically be shorting it…

On the whole, I would be hoping for poor earnings and a sell-off as an opportunity to buy HOG back near the lows but I don’t see betting them to go lower as .26 is a very low bar to beat. In the past 3 months, HOG has picked up a "sell" rating from one analyst and now has 3 "underperform" ratings, 9 "holds," one "buy" and 4 "strong buys" so there isn’t all that much enthusiasm for the stock. 18% of the stock is already sold short and that is 8 days of average trading so an upside surprise or raised guidance can cause a squeeze.

To initiate a speculative long play here, the Feb $17 calls can be bought for $2.22 and the Aug $16 calls can be sold against them for $1.20. This is a position to "scale into," meaning consider this a first round entry. Ideally, the earnings will not be thrilling and the caller will be wiped out, leaving us with the Feb $17s at net $1.02 at which point they can be added to or rolled down to a lower strike for a low average entry. Should HOG surprise to the upside, we simply buy more Feb $17s and roll the callers up to higher strikes. We’ll follow through on this play as it’s a good earnings exercise.

HOTT also has very low expectations. Analysts expect a 0.05 loss for the quarter although, for the year, the company is expected to earn .45 a share, not much below last year. 23% of this stock is already being shorted and there are 22,334 open Aug $10 puts vs. just 1,228 Aug $10 calls so to…

Tags: Harley, HOG, Hot Topic, HOTT, twilight

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Bulls singing Yahoo! in tune

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - April 16th, 2009 5:53 pm

Today’s tickers: YHOO, MMR, FXI, CI, HOG, KFT, NUAN & VMC

YHOO Yahoo!, Inc. – Shares have rallied by more than 2% to $14.32 amid news that the company is seeking buyers for its HotJobs employment website and has plans to cut some 200 to 500 jobs. Perhaps investor confidence has been bolstered by the past few months with CEO Carol Bartz at the helm as the stock has risen about 29% from its January 2009 low of around $11.03 up to today’s price. Option investors were seen taking bullish stances on the stock in the May and October contracts. At the May 15 strike price 26,600 calls were purchased for an average premium of 77 cents apiece. Shares would need to rise by another 10% in order to breach the breakeven point on the trade at $15.77 by expiration in May. Further along, the October 12 strike price witnessed the sale of 2,100 puts for a premium of 1.30 each. Some traders were showing caution in the May contract by purchasing 4,500 puts at the May 14 strike price for 99 cents should shares experience a decline in the near future. These put options would begin to provide downside protection or profits beginning at the breakeven point to the downside at $13.01. Option implied volatility on Yahoo! is up sharply today to 74% from yesterday’s reading of 67%.

MMR McMoRan Exploration Co. – Shares of the oil and natural gas company have declined slightly by less than 1% today to stand at $5.22. Despite the fall in share price, one investor does not see shares falling much further as he sold more than 14,000 puts at the May 5.0 strike price for a premium of 50 cents apiece. There is currently no open interest at the May 5.0 strike, and thus this trader accepts the 50 cent premium in exchange for bearing the risk that shares fall beneath the breakeven point to the downside at $4.50. Should shares plummet through the breakeven point, the investor would face increasing losses in proportion with declines in the stock. The puts traded today represent nearly 40% of the existing open interest on the stock of 38,000 contracts. While we do not know the exact motivation for the trade, we do know that shares need only decline by 13% from the current price for this investor to face losses.

FXI iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25…

Tags: CI, FXI, HOG, KFT, MMR, NUAN, VMC, YHOO

No Comments »

Option traders see Harley dropping a gear

www.interactivebrokers.com

by Andrew Wilkinson - April 13th, 2009 4:25 pm

Today’s tickers: HOG, GE, GM, MWW, MAR, YHOO, ALL & C

HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. – The motorcycle company’s shares have dipped by more than 2% to $17.64 today and have motivated investors to shop for downside protection on the stock. HOG appeared on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one trader purchased 11,800 puts at the May 15 strike price for a premium of 88 cents per contract. This lot of purchased-puts represents nearly twice the amount of existing open interest at that strike. Should shares fall below the breakeven point at $14.12 by expiration next month the trader will begin to amass profits as shares move lower. From today’s current price, shares would need to fall by another 20% in order to breach the breakeven point described.

GE General Electric – Shares of the Connecticut-based company have rallied by more than 8% to $12.25. Option investors were observed making a mixture of bearish and bullish moves on GE. At the April 12 strike price, 20,000 calls were sold for a premium of 63 cents apiece while the April 12 puts were purchased 24,000 times for an average price of 57 cents per contract. Perhaps investors are banking gains by selling in-the-money calls ahead of expiration on Friday, but also picking up downside protection in case shares reverse direction in the next 4 days. The May 10 strike price witnessed the sale of nearly 16,000 puts for 46 cents and indicates that some traders do not see shares dipping below the breakeven point at $9.54 by next month’s expiration. Finally, the June 13 strike price saw the purchase of 4,600 calls for a premium of 1.06 apiece as some investors are hopeful that shares will breach $14.06 in June. Bullish traders even looked to the June 20 strike price where 2,600 calls were picked up for about 8 cents each. GE’s shares have not traded above $14.06 since January 14th, and have not been above $20.00 since November 4, 2008, but option traders appear to be chomping at the bit – hungry for a meatier GE share price.

GM General Motors, Corp. – Shares are off by more than 16% to $1.70 amid news that the U.S. Treasury has directed the failing automaker to prepare for a bankruptcy filing by June 1, 2009. Option implied volatility has exploded to 324% from Thursday’s reading of 197% as…

Tags: ALL, C, GE, GM, HOG, MAR, MWW, YHOO

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Phil's Favorites

Jobless Claims Improve, Leading Indicators Decline: Economic Report Card

September 22nd, 2011 5:36 pm

Courtesy of John Nyaradi.

Jobless claims improve while leading indicators decline in today’s economic report card

by Wall Street Sector Selector Staff

Weekly jobless claims declined to 424,000 from last week’s 432, 000 but stubbornly stayed above the all important 400,000 level for another week.

August Leading Indicators came in at +0.3% compared to 0.5% for July, as the economy continues registering weakness.

Good news came from July Home Prices which rose to +0.8% from the previously reported +0.7%.

But the biggest economic news of the week came yesterday when the Federal Reserve said it saw “significant downside risks to the economic outlook, including strains in global financial markets.”

Global stock markets responded negatively yesterday an...

Insider Scoop

Priceline.com Trades Higher on Q1 Earnings Results (PCLN)

May 5th, 2011 5:10 pm

Courtesy of Benzinga

Shares of Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ: PCLN) are trading higher in the after-hours following the release of its Q1 earnings results. Currently, shares are up 2.74%, trading at $548.60; they closed the regular session down 0.67 %, at $533.97.

The company said that its Q1 EPS came in at $2.66 on revenues of $809.3 million; this compares to the Street's estimate of $2.46 per share on revenues of $779.5 million. Revenues rose 38.6% year over year.

"In the 1st quarter, the Group benefited from strong growth in our global hotel business, particularly at Booking.com and Agoda," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline President and Chief Executive Officer.

He added, "Room nights booked grew by 55.8% and our international gross bookings grew by 79% compared to prior year...

http://www.insidercow.com/ more from Insider

Zero Hedge

Fukushima Explosion Update: Core Presumed Intact As Sea Water Used To Bring Temperature Down, Radiation Level At 1015 Microsieverts/Hour

March 12th, 2011 9:41 am

Courtesy of Tyler Durden

The damage control to the Fukushima explosion reported earlier is coming fast and furious. According to CNN, "the explosion at an earthquake-damaged nuclear plant was not caused by damage to the nuclear reactor but by a pumping system that failed as crews tried to bring the reactor's temperature down, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Saturday. The next step for workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will be to flood the reactor containment structure with sea water to bring the reactor's temperature down to safe levels, he said. The effort is expected to take two days." While the government is trying to play down the threat from the explosion, it has nonetheless double the evacuation zone radius from 10 to 20 kilometers: "Radiation levels have fallen since the explosion and there is no immediate danger, Edano said. But authorities were nevertheless expanding the evacuation ...

Chart School

The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped "Recoveries"

March 12th, 2011 9:35 am

Courtesy of Doug Short

Note from dshort: I retired this chart series last summer in deference to my prefered inflation-adjusted series that aligns the S&P 500 2000 high with the Nikkei peak in 1989. However, I continue to receive requests for this version, despite the "V" shape of the the recovery since the March 2009 low. This chart series overlays the current S&P 500 with the L-shaped "recoveries" after the Dow Crash of 1929, the Nikkei 225 after Japan's 1989 bubble, and the post Tech Bubble NASDAQ. Click the chart below for a larger version and use the links to see various comparisons.

Click for a larger image

I've ...

Sabrient

Sabrient Risers - 3/12/2011

March 12th, 2011 12:00 am

Top 5 RisersStockRatingAnalysisVLOSTRONGBUYAn increasingly positive growth rate of past earnings, along with improving expectations for long term growth, make Valero a good prospect for high returns.KROSTRONGBUYKronos Worldwide has been gaining recognition from analysts as a good canditate for achieving higher than expected earnings along with higher overall projected valuation.SFIBUYiStar is one of the top candidates projected to achieve both higher than previously projected earnings in the short run and a higher earnings growth rate in the long run.AMATSTRONGBUYApplied Materials has been...

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Option Review

Bulls Scoop Up Sprint Nextel Corp. Calls

March 10th, 2011 4:33 pm

Today’s tickers: S, FTR, JTX & SBUX

...

OpTrader

Swing trading portfolio - week of March 7th, 2011

March 6th, 2011 11:25 pm

This post is for live trades and daily comments. Please click on "comments" below to follow our live discussion. All of our current virtual trades are listed in the spreadsheet below, with entry price (1/2 in and All in), and exit prices (1/3 out, 2/3 out, and All out).

We also indicate our stop, which is most of the time the "5 day moving average". All trades, unless indicated, are front-month ATM options.

Please feel free to participate in the discussion and ask any questions you might have about this portfolio, by clicking on the "comments" link right below.

To learn more about the swing trading portfolio (strategy, performance, FAQ, etc.), please click here

Optrader

Swing trading portfolio

One trade portfolio

...

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Stock World Weekly

March 6th, 2011 8:22 am

Here's the newest Stock World Weekly: Illusion Based on a Fantasy

Comments welcome... share your thoughts.

Download Newsletter 3/6/11

Stock World Weekly archives here >

...

more from SWW

Pharmboy

Biotech Junkies Update and Momenta Pharma Moving Forward

March 1st, 2011 9:42 am

February is now past, and the Biotech Porfolio is loaded with winners and a miss (PLX). MRK is down a bit, but I expect that trade to recover, and one could be more agressive and double down on it, or play another round at the Jan13 $30 options for roughly the same price. Below is the summary, and note the grey boxes are ones that did not fill. I am still a fan of BMRN, and like DEPO as well. Now let's look at a few others.

Table 1. PSW Biotech Plays Since January 2011

&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;nbsp;

Our newest play is Momenta Pharmaceuticals (MNTA), who is pursuing a three-part business model which includes complex generic equivalents in partnership with the Sandoz division of Novartis, proprietary compounds, and follow-on- biologics (FOB). It seems that this company is tied up in competition/litigation wit...

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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...

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