Retail Bears Abound
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 23rd, 2011 4:12 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, IMAX, ADSK & OI
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Options traders are positioning for shares in the Retail ETF to fall substantially in the coming months. Massive bearish bets popped up on the XRT in the first half of the trading session with shares slipping further from last week’s new highs. The familiar outline of a put butterfly spread unfurled in the March contract, but was preceded by a large debit put spread initiated in the April contract within the first 15 minutes of trading. Pessimistic players are perhaps speculating that consumers, who now face heftier prices at the pump, are likely to tighten their grip on discretionary dollars going forward. Shares in the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, are currently down 2.4% at $48.02 as of 12:00pm in New York. In the past week shares in the ETF have pulled back 5.1% from an all-time high of $50.61 last Wednesday. One big put player is well-positioned to benefit from additional weakness in XRT shares in the near term. The investor purchased 20,000 puts at each of the March $46 and March $42 strikes, and sold 40,000 puts at the central March $44 strike, all for a net premium of $0.22 per contract. The net cost of the pessimistic play pales in comparison to the $1.78 per contract in maximum potential profits the investor enjoys if shares in the ETF drop to $44.00 ahead of March expiration. Meanwhile, the buyer of a 17,000-lot April $44/$47 put spread for a net premium of $0.57 per contract could walk away with up to $2.43 per contract in profits if shares in the fund slip beneath $44.00 by April expiration. Options implied volatility on the Retail SPDR has been on the rise throughout the trading session, and currently stands 12.6% higher on the session at 27.35% in early afternoon trade.…
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Weekend Reading – Reviewing the Reviews
by Phil - January 1st, 2011 8:28 am
I am still trying to get more bullish.
I was thinking about writing something cute like I resolve to get more bullish but that would be wrong. I try, in my own humble way, to "get" the market right. That means I am not bullish or bearish but Truthish (to further botch Stephen Colbert’s use of the word) and, as Buddah says: "There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth; not going all the way, and not starting." Confucious reminds us that there are three methods by which we may learn wisdom: "First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest."
In that spirit, we will spend the day in reflection so that we are better able to start on that long road to the truth so that we will be better able to imitate the things that will work in the year to come while trying to avoid making mistakes that will give us bitter experiences.
This post is not about me – We had a fantastic year and I’ve already given some outlook for 2011 back on the 19th in that weekend’s "It’s Never too Early to Predict the Future" and our current position is short-term bearish in the Jan-April time-frame, looking for a pullback to at least 1,200 on the S&P and possibly back to 1,150.
After that, we are expecting a return to steady gains but without the irrational exuberance we’re currently experiencing. So no, I am not bearish – I simply think we’ve gotten ahead of ourselves. Since we don’t know where the rally train will stop, we have our "Breakout Defense – 5,000% in 5 Trades or Less" from Dec 11th, which were a set of very bullish, highly levered plays where a little bet can pay off a lot if we simply hold our long-established breakout levels.
How much is "a lot"? Well my GE trade idea, for example, was to sell the 2013 $12.50 puts for $1.10 (net $1.15 in ordinary margin according to TOS) and to use that money to buy the 2012 $17.50/20 bull call spread for .95, which was a net .15 credit on a $2.50 spread that was on the money at the time. GE has gained about .75 since the 11th and…
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Imax Surges on Sony Buyout Talk
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 31st, 2010 4:16 pm
Today’s tickers: IMAX, HIG, VRGY, TOL & WM
IMAX - Imax Corp. – Earlier today you’d have needed more than just 3D-glasses to see the trail left behind by a near 20% surge in shares of the movie-theater corporation. Rumors have emerged that Japan’s Sony Corporation is set to make a $40-plus bid for the company enamored by its growing popularity amongst movie theater-goers. With more films built using 3D-technology shares in the company had already tripled this year in anticipation of growing revenues. Earlier in the week we witnessed what appeared to be a delta-neutral strategy that would have benefitted perfectly from the surging share price, which has subsequently halved its intraday gain. An investor sold stock at around $25.00 and bought call options at the $30 strike expiring in March. As the shares jump in value, the delta on the option swells to give the investor a far-greater long exposure to the stock hugely eclipsing losses from the short position. But is looks like this trader is sitting pretty today as developments unfold and there is no action at that strike price. Rather investors appear to be more concerned with an imminent Sony bid and have targeted the January expiration $35 strike, which has traded in a range spanning 40-cents to $1.10 per contract as the share price digests today’s news. Trading currently at 60-cents the contract would make money by expiration only if shares in Imax surged by more than 18.6% based upon a share price at $30.00.
HIG - Hartford Financial Services Group. – Earlier in the month it appears that an options trader took to a bullish call strategy on the multi-line insurer. December 8 was a high volume day for the stock but also saw around 7,500 calls expiring in January 2011 trade at a 55-cent premium. The strike price of $27.50 was above the closing share price that day by exactly 10%. Just nine days ago the share price hit home lifting the premium to 90-cents. Since then and…
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The Worst-Case Scenario: Getting Real With Global GDP!
by Phil - June 6th, 2010 8:27 am
$10,500.
That is the per capita average GDP for the 6Bn ape-like creatures on this planet who have pockets and purses. Of the still hairy and pocketless apes, there are only about 1M left and they are mainly prisoners so we won’t be worrying about them but it would be nice to consider the plight of our ancestors once in a while… Anyway, so 6Bn of us fill in those last 3 images in the planetary labor pool with the vast majority of us STILL FARMING and, of course, a select group of us are still hunting and gathering and contributing very little to the GDP.
None of our problems are new – as noted in this 2005 cartoon:
The United States of America with it’s highly evolved population of shopoholics has a per capita GDP of $46,381 – VERY IMPRESSIVE but we rank 6th! Brunei does a little better than we do and Singapore is up at $50,523 (so let’s hear it for corporal punishment) and Norway (one of my top choices of countries to flee to when it all hits the fan) is at $52,561 but Luxembourgh ($78,395 – banking) and Qatar ($83,841 – oil) simply trounce us in earnings power per person. For those of you who like to think Capitalism is all about keeping score – they must be better than you because they make more money, right?
Below the US, per capita GDP drops off fairly quickly. Rounding out the top 10 are Switzerland ($43,007 – watches and more bankers), Hong Kong ($42,748 – don’t tell China!), Netherlands ($39,938 – legal drugs!), Ireland ($39,468 – free beer when on wellfare!) and Australia ($38,911 – beer comes in oil cans plus gigantic bouncing rats). 20th on the list is Germany at $34,212, Greece is 25th at $29,882 (but not for long), 30th is South Korea at $27,978, 40th is Slovakia at $21,245. Lithuania comes in at 50 with $16,542 (1 ahead of Russia) and it steadies out there with emerging market star Brazil in 75th place with $10,514 and, keep in mind – that is where you FINALLY get to the average leverl of economic activity for the world.
Another BRIC in the global wall is mighty China, with a per capita GDP of $6,567 for each of their 1.2Bn persons and India’s Billion people average out at less than half of that, at $2,941, ranking 128th and still ahead of 53…
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Weekend Wipe Out – All the Way Back to Mid-November Lows!
by Phil - January 23rd, 2010 11:36 am
Well I hate to say I told you so but…
No wait, that’s nonsense – what market prognosticator doesn’t love to say "I told you so"? Actually, it’s kind of my job to tell you so and the reason I’m so popular is because, more often than not, when I tell you so, I tend to be right. I’m not right all the time and my single biggest flaw is I am often right but sometimes way too early and timing is EVERYTHING in the markets. It’s not good enough to tell you what is going to happen (give things enough time and everything happens eventually, right Cramer?) - I need to get the period right as well so we can turn it into an actionable trading idea that makes money.
As a fundamentalist, I didn’t like the entire last 500 points of the rally. I had predicted the market would finish the year at 10,200 way back when it was down at 8,650 when the idea was we’d have a Santa Clause rally to 20% (10,380) and then a 20% pullback of that run (346) into Jan earnings that would take us back to 10,034 so the entire run from 10,200 to 10,700 REALLY annoyed me. It didn’t annoy me just because it made me wrong – I’m wrong a lot and I’m old enough to have learned how to deal with it. What annoyed me was the manipulation as, clearly, the fundamentals in no way, shape or form justified the additional 5% move up.
I’ve gone on and on about how fake the move was and how manipulated the markets were and how artificial the support was and I think I’ve pulled out the Seinfeld "fake, Fake, FAKE" clip often enough now that I don’t even have to do a link (but I love it, so I do) or explain how it’s a metaphor for recent market activity so I’m not going to waste our valuable time here. Let’s just do a review of the recent action, which is my best way of preparing for the upcoming Members only post where I’ll be charting out new levels and coming up with action plans for the week ahead.
So don’t read this if you can’t stand to hear "I told you so" because this is the review post and I did tell you so!
When did things go wrong? Clearly they were wrong for ages but when…
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Japanese ETF Options Active (After Philstockworld’s Thursday Pick)
by Andrew Wilkinson - December 11th, 2009 5:29 pm
Today’s tickers: EWJ, RX, UUP, DRI, IMAX, SFD & AET
EWJ – iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund – Shares of the Japan exchange-traded fund rose 0.3% today to $9.92. The roughly 125,000 contracts exchanged on the fund today is likely the work of one investor adjusting previously established positions. The trader may be unraveling a portion of a bearish risk reversal established back in late-September. It appears 62,500 puts were sold at the March 10 strike for 53 cents apiece, spread against the purchase of the same number of calls at the January 2011 12 strike for 24 cents premium each. The technically bullish direction of the risk reversal play is possibly a closing transaction given the large levels of existing open interest at each strike described above.
RX – IMS Health, Inc. – Shares of the provider of prescription information to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries plummeted 14% to $18.34 at the start of the trading session. The stock collapsed on news senate democrats proposed an amendment to restrict data-mining practices. Investor uncertainty, as measured by option implied volatility, exploded today on fears the proposed ban may hurt RX’s recent $5.2 billion sale to TPG Inc. and the CPP Investment Board. IMS Health’s shares recovered significantly by midday (EDT) with the stock down a lesser 7.5% to $19.77. Frenzied option traders vied for both calls and puts in the December and January contracts. Investors exchanged nearly 100,000 contracts on the stock in the first three hours of the trading day. Today’s volume blew right past the previous existing open interest on RX of 73,386 contracts. Heavy trading volume and rising investor uncertainty launched option implied volatility up as much as 401.72% to a one-year high of 70.55%. Some traders appear to be selling call options to buy puts in the December contract, while other investors initiated plain-vanilla put buying strategies. Bearish individuals shed more than 6,000 calls at the December 20 strike for an average premium of 46 cents apiece. Traders keep the premium received on the sale if shares of RX remain below $20.00 through expiration. Put buyers favored the December 17.5 strike where roughly 10,000 puts were picked up for about 46 cents each. Some of the puts were spread against the sale of higher strike call options, while other contracts were purchased outright. Roughly 5,000 puts were purchased at the lower December 15 strike where investors…
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Weekly Wrap-Up – 10,000 or Bust!
by Phil - October 17th, 2009 8:27 am
I think I was right on the money last week when I said:
The bar for corporate earnings is still set at very easy to beat levels yet, like this limbo-playing child, when they announce their beats of very low expectations we’re going to get all excited and tell them how great they are doing. The problem is, these are not kids who we hope may grow up one day to be President or CEOs of major companies. these ARE CEOs of major companies and they are being paid top salaries for top performance and we, the stock purchasing public, are paying top dollar for what should be SPECTACULAR performance, not beating 75% off last year’s earnings by a penny!
In that post, I rattled off a list of stocks that seemed overpriced to me: AMZN, BIDU, AM, PALM, NFLX, PCLN, URBN, UHS, CERN, CREE, GMCR, CY, SWM, TRLG, BKE and you would have had a fabulous week just shorting those stocks as only NFLX, URBN and CREE stayed positive. Now most newsletter writers would quit right there and make a giant ad saying they were 12 for 15 on the week but, as our members know, THAT’S NO BIG DEAL AT PSW! I’m just going to remind members that they can refer friends to FREE advice like that in our trial newsletter and earn 20% or more off their subscriptions for doing it.
Picking stocks is easy but a few percent here and a few percent there isn’t much fun is it? On that list, the two we attacked were AMZN and BIDU, both of which ran (in our opinion) way too high AND had very liquid and very overpriced call options that we could sell to collect premiums. AMZN is a staple short in our $100K Portfolio and we had set up BIDU the week before, selling Oct $420 calls for $8.30 and the Oct $430 calls for $7,20. While both went higher on Monday, the fact that we had a plan for managing the trade kept us from panicking and, thankfully, Monday was the only day those positions gave us trouble and both finished the week worthless (100% profit for us).
Adjusting our positions kept us busy this week as we STILL have a slightly bearish bias and I apologize for that but, as I said in Friday’s post: Every time I try to get a little more bullish, they pull me back…
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Valero Upgrade Prompts Call Buying
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 15th, 2009 6:56 pm
Today’s tickers: VLO, SU, EEM, MRVL, PWR, IMAX & AMED
VLO – Valero Energy Corp. – New ratings coverage of ‘equal weight’ by analysts at Morgan Stanley today sent option traders into a call buying frenzy on the oil refining company. Shares of VLO are currently soaring 6.5% higher to stand at $20.03. Call-volume surged at the October 20 strike where more than 16,100 contracts were purchased for an average premium of 8 pennies apiece. The October 20 strike is now in-the-money by 3 cents, allowing investors to exercise their right to buy shares of the underlying stock for an effective price of $20.08 each. Traders may also decide to accumulate short term gains if shares rally through the breakeven point at $20.08 ahead of expiration tomorrow.
SU – Suncor Energy, Inc. – A couple of bullish calendar rolls caught our attention this afternoon on Suncor Energy. Shares of the Canada-based energy firm slipped nearly 1% lower to stand at $38.99. The first of the two calendar rolls involved 2,000 calls at the December 32 strike which were originally purchased for 3.50 apiece on September 9, 2009, and sold today for 7.50. Net profits on the sale amount to 4.00 per contract. The trader expanded the size of the new call position at the January 47.5 strike by buying 3,000 lots for about 75 cents apiece. The larger of the two transactions involved a larger number of call options. Approximately 11,000 calls were originally bought for a maximum of 2.30 each on September 8, 2009. Today the position was closed by the investor who sold the calls for 5.05 per contract. Net profits on the transaction amount to an average 2.75 per contract. Again, the calls were rolled to the January contract but this time the investor paid 1.85 to buy 18,000 calls at the January 42.5 strike. Profit-taking aside, the investor or investors responsible for the calendar rolls are expecting shares of SU to rise by expiration in January.
EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – Shares of the emerging markets fund fell 0.5% this afternoon to $41.32. We observed bullish transactions take place on the stock despite the decline in shares. One investor banked gains by rolling a bullish call position forward in the December contract. It appears the trader originally purchased 10,000 calls at the now December 42 strike for 1.08 apiece on October…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(