Stampede of Bulls into Goldcorp Calls as Shares Hit Two-Year Highs
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 1st, 2011 4:04 pm
Today’s tickers: GG, LINE, IYR & YHOO
GG - Goldcorp, Inc. – Shares of the gold mining company are trading up at their highest in more than 2 years, and a number of options traders are betting Goldcorp’s shares have more room to run in the near term. Call options on GG are in high demand, with more than 3.1 calls changing hands on the stock for each single put option in action today. Shares in the name are currently up 3.5% at an intraday- and new 2-year high of $49.50. Investors expecting the price of the underlying to continue to move higher picked up more than 1,750 calls at the March $50 strike for an average premium of $0.84 apiece. Traders exchanged more than 6,600 calls up at the March $52.5 strike versus previously existing open interest of just 537 contracts. The majority of the calls, or roughly 4,500 contracts, were purchased at the March $52.5 strike for an average premium of $0.29 a-pop. Call buyers at this strike start making money if shares in Goldcorp rally another 6.6% over today’s high of $49.50 to surpass the average breakeven point at $52.79 by March expiration. Options implied volatility on the gold mining company increased 8.0% to 30.88% by 12:45pm.
LINE - Linn Energy LLC – The oil and natural gas company popped up on our scanners this morning due to options activity in the July contract. The spread appears to be the work of an investor positioning for shares to hit a new 52-week high ahead of expiration. Shares in Linn Energy LLC are down slightly by 0.33% to stand at $38.70 in early afternoon trade. It looks like the strategist responsible for the transaction sold 2,000 puts at the July $36 strike for a premium of $1.15 per contract…
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World of Worry Wednesday – The China Syndrome
by Phil - November 17th, 2010 7:52 am
Strap in kids, it’s going to be a bumpy ride!
Nomura Holdings joined Goldman Sachs in advising investors to cash out of China and that sent the Hang Seng down 478 points for the day (2%) along with another 2% loss on the Shanghai. “The likelihood of a re-introduction of price controls on food is growing,” Nomura’s Sean Darby said in a report today. “The recent run-up in agriculture prices worldwide and signs of hoarding appear to have pushed the authorities to reconsider draconian measures.” Premier Wen Jiabao confirmed on state television that the cabinet is drafting measures to counter overly rapid price gains. “Command style economic principles generally mean much lower multiples over time on the sector and stocks,” said Darby.
The US has it’s own "command style" economy with B-B-B-Bennie and the Fed commanding our inflation to go higher while China is trying to get their 4.4% inflation under control. The joke is, like Sidney Poitier and and Tony Curtis, our economies are shackled together through the Yuan peg as well as our codependent trading relationship. That has the World’s #1 (falling) and #2 (rising) economies engaged in a Global tug of war that threatens to tear the rest of the World to pieces and it’s just getting worse every day.
With the US pushing top-down QE2 inflation and China’s Premier calling for consumer price controls on food (and soon fuel too as a severe winter is forecast for China) it’s not surprising that Carlsberg’s Chongquing Brewery Company fell limit down (10%) on the Shanghai this morning along with several other food and beverage distributors. Copper, sugar and rubber also went limit-down in China with copper dropping all the way to $3.60 (down 10% in a week) into China’s close at 3am.
Meanwhile Bernanke is like the Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Given the magic hat – he commands his broom army to fetch buckets of dollars to inflate the economy the easy way but his lazy solution quickly turns into disaster as the waters start rising and he finds he has no way to stem the rising tide of inflation. Already, the rest of the world is drowning and not many have China’s ability to bail themselves out. This is not likely to end well…
Europe (who are caught in the middle) is already under tremendous strain with Matt…
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Enormous Prints in Put Options on Tech. Select Sector SPDR Fund
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 27th, 2010 4:35 pm
Today’s tickers: XLK, ENR, IYR, ALTR, AVP, JCP & TQNT
XLK - Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund – One big options market participant traded a total of 524,600 put options on the technology SPDR ETF this afternoon. It looks like the party responsible for the massive transactions rolled a previously established debit put spread in the December contract forward to the longer-dated March 2011 contract. Shares of the XLK, an exchange-traded fund that mirrors the performance of the Technology Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, are down slightly by 0.20% to stand at $24.19 as of 2:15 pm in New York. The XLK jumped to the top of our ‘most active by options volume’ scanner after the 112,300-lot December $23/$20 put spread was sold for a net $0.31 per contract. This spread appears to have been initially purchased for a net premium of $0.68 each back on October 7, 2010, when the price of the underlying fund was trading around $23.14. Today, the XLK-options player sold the massive spread in order to purchase an even larger one at the same strike prices in the March 2011 contract. The new put position involved the purchase of 150,000 lots at the March 2011 $23 strike for a premium of $0.96 each, and the sale of the same number of puts at the lower March $2011 $20 strike at a premium of $0.31 apiece. In isolation, the net cost of buying the longer-dated put spread amounts to $0.65 per contract and yields downside protection for the investor should shares of the XLK trade below the breakeven price of $22.35 by March expiration. Enormous trades such as these tend to be tied to stock. Perhaps this trader is augmenting the size of the put spread because he has increased his exposure to the technology sector. Around the same time the puts were bring traded, some 733,000 shares of the underlying were purchased for $24.12 each. We note, however, that at this time there is no way…
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Strangle Strategist Sees Range-Bound Shares at The Cheesecake Factory
by Andrew Wilkinson - September 7th, 2010 4:03 pm
Today’s tickers: CAKE, LVS, IYR, TEVA, EEM, S, CREE & EXPE
CAKE – The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. – One premium-hungry options strategist sold a strangle on the full-service dining restaurants operator this afternoon in the expectation that its shares are set to trade within a narrow range through October expiration. Cheesecake Factory’s shares fell 1.45% late in the session to trade at $25.38 by 3:35 pm ET. The investor sold 3,000 puts at the October $25 strike for premium of $1.05 apiece and sold 3,000 calls at the October $26 strike at a premium of $1.05 each in order to pocket gross premium of $2.10 per contract. Full retention of the premium received today occurs as long as shares of the underlying stock trade between $25.00 and $26.00 through October expiration. Wayward shifts in the price of CAKE’s shares could give this strangle-player a severe stomachache as losses start to build should shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $28.10, or if shares dip under the lower breakeven point at $22.90, ahead of expiration day in October.
LVS – Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Shares in casino resort operator Las Vegas Sands commenced the session in the red but rallied in afternoon trading to stand 1.05% higher on the day at $31.32 as of 3:45 pm ET. Earlier in the day shares increased as much as 1.5% to secure a new 52-week high of $31.46. One long-term bullish investor hoping to see continued appreciation in the price of the underlying stock established a covered call in the March 2011 contract. The trader sold 10,000 calls at the March 2011 $40 strike for premium of $1.73 per contract. The transaction had a delta of .30 and was tied to the purchase of LVS shares at $31.20 each. Premium received on the sale of the calls effectively reduces the price paid by the investor to get long the stock. The bullish player is poised to accumulate maximum potential gains of 35.7% on the run up in LVS shares from an effective purchase price of $29.47 to $40.00 if the calls land in-the-money at expiration and the underlying position is called away from the trader at that time.
IYR – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF – The construction of a debit put spread on the IYR, an exchange-traded fund that corresponds to the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index…
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Three-Legged Bearish Tactician Targets iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF
by Andrew Wilkinson - August 28th, 2010 5:04 pm
Today’s tickers: IYR, NSM, IGT, GFRE, LNC, BHI, ONNN & HPQ
IYR – iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index ETF – A three-legged bearish options combination play on the IYR, an exchange-traded fund designed to provide investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index – an index created to measure the performance of the real estate sector of the U.S. equity market, indicates one big player is bracing for a pullback in shares of the ETF through the end of 2010. Shares of the fund went the way of the market this afternoon and rallied 1.05% to $50.71 with less than one hour remaining in the trading week. The investor sold roughly 10,000 calls at the December $55 strike at an average premium of $1.35 each, purchased about 10,000 puts at the December $50 strike for an average premium of $3.65 apiece, and shed 10,000 puts at the lower December $43 strike at an average premium of $1.43 a-pop. The net cost of the pessimistic play is reduced to $0.87 per contract. The transaction could be a hedge to protect the value of a large position in IYR shares. But, if the spread represents an outright bearish bet on the ETF, the investor is poised to profit should shares dip below the average breakeven price of $49.13 by December expiration. Maximum available profits in this scenario amount to $6.13 per contract if the fund’s shares plummet 15.2% from the current price to trade below $43.00 by expiration day.
NSM – National Semiconductor Corp. – Shares in semiconductor manufacturer, National Semiconductor Corp., earlier slipped 2.05% to touch a new 52-week low of $12.41, but the stock came roaring back to life in afternoon trading, rallying as much as 3.2% to an intraday high of $13.08. The significant shifts in the price of the underlying shares inspired investors to purchase both call and put options on the stock today. Options traders may also be gravitating toward NSM options ahead of the firm’s first-quarter earnings report scheduled for September 9, 2010. Investors heartened by the turn-around in shares purchased approximately 5,800 calls at the November $13 strike for an average premium of $0.85 apiece. Call buyers make money if National Semiconductor’s shares rally another 5.9% over today’s high of $13.08 to trade above the average breakeven price of $13.85 by expiration…
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Delta Air Lines Receives Contrarian Bullish Combo Play
by Andrew Wilkinson - August 19th, 2010 4:44 pm
Today’s tickers: DAL, AKAM, GG & IYR
DAL – Delta Air Lines, Inc. – One contrarian investor initiated a three-legged bullish options combination play on Delta Air Lines today with shares of the underlying stock trading lower by 6.25% on the day at $10.65 as of 12:55 pm ET. It looks like the trader is betting Delta’s shares are not likely to fall much lower ahead of expiration in January 2011. The investor sold 4,000 puts at the January 2011 $10 strike for premium of $1.17 each, shed another 4,000 puts at the lower January 2011 $9.0 strike for premium of $0.80 apiece, and finally purchased 4,000 calls at the higher January 2011 $12.5 strike at a premium of $0.98 a-pop. The transaction yields a net credit of $1.00 per contract to the investor, which he keeps in full as long as the airline’s shares exceed $10.00 through expiration day. The long stance in call options implies the potential for additional profits to be made should DAL’s shares surge 17.4% over the current price of $10.65 to surpass the $12.50-level ahead of expiration in January. If shares continue to descend, however, the investor could wind up having a total of 800,000 shares put to him in the event both chunks of puts at the January 2011 $10/$9.0 strikes land in-the-money at expiration.
AKAM – Akamai Technologies, Inc. – Bullish players are dominating trading activity in Akamai Technologies’ options this morning due to reports of renewed takeover chatter. Investors expecting AKAM’s shares to climb higher are scooping up call options in the August and September contracts. The firm’s shares are currently up 2.8% on the day to arrive at $45.30 as of 11:30 am ET. Traders purchased at least 4,200 now in-the-money calls at the August $45 strike for an average premium of $0.45 apiece. Call buyers at this strike make money if, by expiration tomorrow, Akamai’s shares exceed the average breakeven price of $45.45. Optimism spread to the September contract where traders picked up 1,100 call options at the September $49 strike for an average premium of $0.69 a-pop. Investors long the September $49 strike calls are positioning for AKAM’s shares to rally to a new 52-week high by expiration day next month. The current 52-week high on the stock is $46.72, but the price of the underlying stock would need to surge 9.7% over the current price of…
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Investor Optimism Apparent in Yahoo! Options Action
by Andrew Wilkinson - July 8th, 2010 5:59 pm
Today’s tickers: YHOO, PG, MWW, PWER, IYR, HRB, ANF, CSC & EWH
YHOO – Yahoo!, Inc. – The online media company made an appearance on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one investor initiated a long-term bullish stance on the stock. Yahoo’s shares increased 1.10% to stand at $14.56 by 3:05 pm (ET). Optimism on the operator of one of the most heavily trafficked Internet destinations was perhaps inspired by words from the firm’s CFO, Tim Morse, who intends to end the company’s pattern of poor M&A decisions. Morse addressed Yahoo’s history of overpaying for acquisitions and later selling those assets at a disadvantageous price by announcing plans to improve the company’s return on invested capital to 18% to 24% in 2013 from approximately 5% in 2009. One optimistic options trader opted to purchase a plain-vanilla debit call spread on Yahoo! in order to position for share price appreciation through expiration in January 2011. The investor picked up 5,000 in-the-money calls at the January 2011 $14 strike for a premium of $1.92 apiece, and sold the same number of calls at the higher January 2011 $17.5 strike for a premium of $0.58 each. Net premium paid to establish the spread amounts to $1.34 per contract. Thus, the bullish trader makes money if Yahoo’s shares rally 5.35% to trade above the effective breakeven point on the spread at $15.34 by expiration day in January 2011. The investor exits with maximum potential profits of $2.16 per contract if the online media company’s shares surge 20.2% over the current price of $14.56 to trade above $17.50 by expiration.
PG – The Proctor & Gamble Co. – Investor demand for call options on the global provider of branded packaged consumer goods surged during afternoon trading with options participants exchanging more than 4.4 calls on the stock to each single put option in play thus far in the session. PG’s shares rallied 1.7% to $61.85 by 3:30 pm (ET). It looks like bullish players expecting Proctor & Gamble’s shares to trade at a new 52-week high by August expiration purchased at least 17,900 calls options at the August $65 strike for an average premium of $0.21 per contract. Call buyers are poised to profit should shares of the underlying stock jump 5.4%, surpass the stock’s current 52-week high of $64.10, and trade above the average breakeven price of $65.21 by August expiration.…
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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up – The Madness of the Markets (Part 1)
by Phil - May 21st, 2010 11:22 pm
Where do I even begin to go over this week?
I think, to set the proper tone, let’s look at my Thursday morning Alert to Members where I said: "Get out, Get Out, GET OUT of the short-term short-side plays if we get back over the 200 dmas. Take the money and RUN. CASH OUT THE SHORT SIDE. Is that clear? We may not hold these lines but that’s why we have October Disaster Hedges, the shorter-term downside plays are huge winners and should be cashed here – we’ll find something else to short if we fall off this support level. 200 dmas need to be held and those are: Dow 10,250 (8,650 is next major support), S&P 1,100 (900), Nasdaq 2,225 (not there yet! 1,800), NYSE 7,100 (5,500) and Russell 630 (still above! 500)."
We never did hold those levels but, as I mentioned in Friday morning’s post, I thought the end of day sell-off on Thursday was a bit forced, and, in my first Alert of Friday morning I said: "TAKE THOSE SHORT PROFITS OFF THE TABLE!" Now, I am not prone to making statements in all caps in Member Chat - almost never is about how often so this was a pretty important statement. Before that Alert, right at 9:42, I had already called for the SPY $105 calls at $2.45 as our first trade of the day. Those calls finished at $4.11, up 67% for the day so a good start to our expiration day!
A good start and our other day trades did very nicely as well:
- FXI June $39 calls at .98, now $1.28 - up 30%
- DIA May $102 calls at .13, out at .45 – up 246%
- DIA May $101 calls at .95, out at .80 - down 16%
- DIA May $101 calls at .10, out at .80 – up 700%
Of course we followed our strategies and took 1/2 the DIA’s off the table at a double so the other half was a free ride (we like to gamble but we’re not crazy!) but the FXI was the only "keeper" for the day, we’ll see if that was a good idea on Monday. We also took (as I said we would in the morning post) a number of well-hedged, bullish plays on BA (from the post), TNA, TBT (have I mentioned how much I like them lately?), INTC, AAPL, VLO, FCX (I guess we’re done relentlessly shorting them!), XOM and…
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Weekend Reading – Now What?
by Phil - May 16th, 2010 9:42 pm
We had a totally exciting week last week!
I was busy this weekend so no Wrap-Up but I did write about 5 pages of commentary under Sage’s $1,000,000 Portfolio article regarding portfolio allocations and scaling strategies - all Members should read that! We were discussing our Disaster Hedges as well which are all well in the money but hardly a double in the bunch so far, which is actually fantastic news if you haven’t entered them yet as you can enter these plays now and still do great if EITHER the market continues lower OR the VIX calms down since it’s the high VIX that is keeping us from making big money. These are October hedges so no one expects them to pay off this early but the fact that you can still get in them even after this dip is a nice break if you intend to start getting bullish and want hedges.
We took shorter-term hedges for more aggressive traders during the last week of April and those, of course, are up very nicely like:
- EDZ June $38/44 bull call spread at $2.80, now $3.50 - up 25%
- EDZ June $35 puts sold for at $1.25, now .70 - up 44% (pair trade)
- FAZ July $12/16 bull call spread at $1.10, now $1.35 - up 18%
- FAZ July $10 puts sold for .70, now .50 – up 28%
- IYR May $52 puts at $1.30 (fell to .79), now $2 - up 54%
- OIH May $131 calls sold for $3.45, now .05 – up 98%
- OIH May $131 calls sold for $3.90, now 05 – up 99%
- QID May $16 calls at .32 (fell to .27), now $1.27 – up 296%
- QID May $15 puts sold for .32 (rose to .37), now .02 - up 94% (pair trade)
- QID June $14/16 bull call spread at $1.15, now $1.50 – up 30%
- TBT Sept $43 puts sold for $1.50, now $3.90 – down 160%
- TBT Sept $43/48 bull call spread at $2.60, now $1.55 – down 36%
- TZA June $6 puts sold for .70 (rose to .94), now .74 - down 5%
- UGL Oct $49/54 bull call spread at $2, now $2.50 – up 25%
- GLD March $90 puts sold for $1.20, now $1.40 - down 17% (pair trade)
- VNO May $80 calls sold at $2.30 (rose to $3.90), now $1.85 – up 19%
As I often say, sometimes the best way to enter a trade is AFTER they are down and most of…
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Put Butterfly Spread on Financials ETF Points to Persisting Pessimism
by Andrew Wilkinson - May 10th, 2010 4:22 pm
Today’s tickers: XLF, CMCSA, IBB, IYR, KBE & RIG
XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF – Investors heavily favored put options over call options on the financial SPDR today despite the 4.4% rebound in the price of the underlying stock to $15.75. Earlier in the trading session shares of the XLF, an exchange-traded fund seeking investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, increased 6.15% over Friday’s closing price of $15.09 to reach an intraday high of $16.02 in the first 30 minutes of the session. Options traders populating the fund today initiated decidedly bearish transactions signaling shares of the fund may be unable to retain the current rebound. Near-term pessimism took the form of a large-volume debit put spread in the May contract. It looks like one investor purchased 36,000 puts at the May $15 strike for a premium of $0.17 apiece, and sold the same number of puts at the lower May $14 strike for $0.07 each. The net cost of the trade amounts to $0.10 per contract, thus positioning the put player to pocket maximum potential profits of $0.90 per contract should shares decline 11.11% from the current price to breach the $14.00-level by expiration day. The trade is perhaps the work of an investor still smarting from last week’s market meltdown now taking advantage of relatively cheap downside protection today to hedge against similar catastrophic events. Bearishness spread to the June contract where another pessimistic individual enacted a put butterfly spread. The transaction involved the purchase of 10,000 now in-the-money puts at the June $16 strike for a premium of $0.67 each [wing 1] and the purchase of 10,000 puts at the lower June $14 strike for $0.23 apiece [wing 2]. The body of the butterfly, nestled between the two wings at the central June $15 strike, involved the sale of 20,000 puts for a premium of $0.41 each. The net cost of the butterfly spread amounts to just $0.08 per contract. The trade yields maximum potential profits of $0.92 per contract to the responsible party if shares of the XLF fall 4.75% from the current price to settle at $15.00 at June expiration. The investor starts to make money if shares of the financials ETF slip beneath the upper breakeven price of $15.92. Options traders exchanged more than 440,000 contracts on the…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
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