Weekly Wrap Up – Double Up or Double Top?

by Phil - October 10th, 2009 8:37 am

Not such a good week!

Last week was FANTASTIC and we had 28 winning trades out of 36 with an average gain of 42% on the winners and an average loss of 12% on the losers – now THAT’s A GOOD WEEK.  We were stopped out of most of our bearish trades on Monday but we took a lot of new ones, which I’ll get into later…  Of course, since we are rangish and play both ends, the good news is we still had our "losers" and puts that we sold on long positions and those turned into huge winners in just 5 days:

• AA at $13.30, out at $15 -  up 12.7%
• AAPL Jan $165 puts sold for $7.40, now $4.70 – up 36%
• BAC Oct $17 puts sold for .97, now .28 – up 71%
• DIA Nov $92 calls at $5.40, now $7.30 - up 35%
• MHP 2011 $25 puts sold for $5.20, now 5.10 – up 2%
• RIMM March $100 calls at $1.45, now $1.25, down 13.7%

So, of the 6 that were not working last week, 5 are winners this week.  As I mentioned at the end of last week’s wrap up, we were more than satisfied with our 5% drop that week and we did expect a bit of a bounce but we made the mistake of thinking The 250 points we gained by Tuesday morning was the end of it, but here we are at the end of the week, another 100 points higher and right back where we started from when we shorted into the rally in mid September. 

Last weekend we were at a great point in our range as all our put plays had just paid off, this will be an interesting contrast as we have serious problems with our new short plays and we have a little less conviction than we had in mid September that we will get our correction – not after such a sharp turn off the 5% line this week.  Nonetheless, we did stay 55% bearish into the weekend overall – still playing for our range.  But, I’m getting ahead of myself, so let’s go back to Monday and see how we got here….

Monday Market Manipulation – Goldman’s CIT Bonanza

I was not at all pleased with the scam GS was running on CIT and neither were many in the press but their attention span lasted all of 24 hours as the markets…

Tags: AA, AAPL, AMZN, BAC, BIDU, DIA, FCX, FSLR, GLD, MHP, MOS, PGR, RAD, RIMM, TBT, WFMI, WFR

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Will We Hold It Wednesday?

by Phil - October 7th, 2009 7:53 am

When your first trade of the day is a cover, you know you are too bearish!

That’s what happened to us yesterday when I sent out a 9:47 Trade Alert to Members for the QQQQ $41/42 bull call spread at .57 to cover the too bearish stance I was worried about in the morning post.  We exited that trade at .70 (up 22%) and that served it’s purpose of giving us some cash to put into rolling up our puts, following through on the strategy laid out in the morning post.  As I said at the time, these are the moves we’re making BEFORE we capitulate and our short plays will form a base from which we can aggressively go long once we clear our targets. 

I called off that QQQQ trade at 11:32, about 9 cents off the high of the day as they looked about to fail our 42 target which, as you can see from David Fry’s chart, is right about the middle of the weekly range so it’s a level we have to respect on multiple fronts.  We’re still waiting for a proper test of that 40 line, a 5% drop from here and PSQ (short QQQQ) calls are the main protection in our $100K Portfolio at the moment.  Any move below 40 on the Qs can re-shape the chart to a much more bearish formation long-term. 

We also covered up our long DIA puts, which flipped us more bullish overall and ended the day half-covered – neutral and confused but with more aggressive puts than we had on Monday so some small progress was made.  In addition to rolling up our bear plays like GLD puts, we added hedged January bullish plays on EDZ and TZA, went bullish on RIMM as they sold off to $65, bearish on MOS as they ran up to $49, bullish on WFR at $16, bearish on FCX at $70, April bullish and hedged on SKF, bearish on OIH at $118.50, Jan bearish and hedged on TIF at $40.75, bullish and hedged on April SCO and bullish on FXP at $9.45.  Overall a pretty busy and bearish day of trading.

As I said to members in my closing comments, the XLF couldn’t hold $15 and the Qs couldn’t hold 42, which were both watch levels for us during the day.  The index levels we were targeting were a mixed bag as we were looking for upside…

Tags: Dollar, EDZ, FCX, FXP, GLD, MOS, OIH, RIMM, SCO, SKF, TIF, TZA, WFR

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Hewlett-Packard Options Deliver Winner to Call Seller

by Andrew Wilkinson - September 1st, 2009 5:14 pm

Today’s tickers: HPQ, ELX, FXI, IYR, MOS, WFC, ABX & VIX

HPQ - Shares of the global technology company have surrendered more than 2% to arrive at the current price of $43.85. Gloomy predictions by one bearish investor were rewarded during the session as he apparently made a closing purchase of a short call position in the September contract. It appears that the trader originally shed about 4,500 calls at the September 47 strike price for a premium of 65 cents each back on August 12, 2009. Today he closed out the short position by buying the calls back for just 12 cents per contract. The trader’s pessimistic foresight yielded net profits of approximately 52 cents for a total payoff of $238,500. – Hewlett-Packard Co. –

ELX - The telecommunications firm appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after bullish activity was detected in the January 2010 contract. Shares of ELX have resisted the overall bearish market momentum today by rising a modest 0.5% to $9.72. A bullish risk reversal was established through the sale of 5,000 puts at the January 7.5 strike for 30 cents each spread against the purchase of 5,000 calls at the higher January 12.5 strike for 35 cents apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to just one nickel per contract and positions the trader to benefit from further bullish movement in the price of the underlying. Shares of Emulex must rally approximately 29% higher by expiration in order for the investor to break even at a price of $12.55. – Emulex Corp. –

FXI - A bearish reversal play was enacted on the China ETF this afternoon amid a 2% decline in shares to $38.46. The investor responsible for the reversal may simply be looking to amass profits to the downside. Alternatively, the trader could hold a long position in the underlying stock, in which case he has taken a protective stance. The transaction involved the sale of 15,000 calls at the November 39 strike price for 3.00 apiece spread against the purchase of 15,000 in-the-money put options at the same strike for 3.20 each. The sale of the calls significantly reduced the cost of getting long the puts. The reversal cost the investor just 20 cents per contract and allows him to accrue profits beneath the breakeven price of $38.80. Given the current price of the FXI, the trader has already amassed profits…

Tags: ABX, ELX, FXI, HPQ, IYR, MOS, VIX, WFC

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Gaylord Welcomes New Options Players As Investors Target Upside

by Andrew Wilkinson - August 4th, 2009 4:22 pm

Today’s tickers: GET, BAC, WFMI, KSS, HGSI, MOS, AES & NUAN

GET – The diversified hospitality and entertainment company edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after a bullish reversal was established in the October contract. Shares of GET have surged more than 17.5% to $17.22 today on “solid” second-quarter results which exceeded analyst expectations. An investor looking for continued gains in the stock sold 3,000 puts short at the October 12.5 strike price for 55 cents per contract in order to partially fund the purchase of 3,000 calls at the higher October 17.5 strike for a premium of 1.65 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts 1.10. The trader will begin to accrue profits by expiration if shares can continue higher by at least 8% to breach the breakeven point at $18.60. We note that the more than 6,000 lots exchanged on the stock today, trumps previous existing open interest of 1,993 contracts by 201%. – Gaylord Entertainment Company

BAC – A number of longer-term option trades observed on BAC today indicate that some investors believe the financial services firm is on the road to recovery. Shares have increased more than 3% to arrive at the current price of $15.80. Call spreads were enacted in the February 2010 contract by traders expecting significant appreciation in the value of the underlying shares by expiration. Approximately 14,000 calls were purchased at the February 20 strike price for an average premium of 86 cents apiece, and were spread against the sale of about 14,000 calls at the higher February 25 strike for 22 cents each. The average net cost of the transaction amounts to 64 cents. Investors will enjoy maximum potential profits of 4.36 per contract if shares of BAC can rally a whopping 58% to $25.00 by expiration in February. Traders will begin to amass profits given a 31% rise in the stock through the breakeven point at $20.64. – Bank of America Corp.

WFMI – The largest retailer of natural and organic foods in the U.S. is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes today. Shares are currently off slightly by more than 1% to $24.45 as we near the conclusion of today’s trading session. Option trades revealed mixed sentiment by investors ahead of earnings. A trader who could be protecting a long position in the underlying was seen selling 5,000 puts short at…

Tags: AES, BAC, GET, HGSI, KSS, MOS, NUAN, WFMI

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600-Point Weekly Wrap-Up: Selling High

by Phil - July 19th, 2009 12:01 pm

Holy cow, what a week!

It is hard to believe that last weekend I wrote: "You can hardly find anyone who doesn’t think we’re going back to the March lows.  I stand by my statement to Members in yesterday morning’s Alert where I said:  "It’s ridiculous for the Dow to go back to 7,500 and ridiculous for the S&P to go back to 800.  While it’s easy to make squiggly lines on a chart show 10% drops ahead (which seems like a normal 50% retrace of the gains overall) I just think it’s dead wrong from a valuation perspective so I’m not inclined to play it, especially when those valuations are about to slap you in the face over the next few weeks.  Maybe I’m wrong and maybe earnings will suck and Q2 will be a miss and guidance will be lower but right now I say – Show me the misses."

Here we are, just 7 days later and I found myself writing an article about the ridiculous media cheerleading that went on last week.  How did the MSM go from 100% bearish to 100% bullish at the stoke of Monday?  Well, according to Cramer, it was Whitney, Whitney, Whitney and the logic seems to be that, since she called the problems in the financials early on, she MUST be right by calling an end to the problems now.  Of course what Whitney actually said was the banks should have a good quarter as the government pushes for massive mortgage refinancing (all those 1% fees really add up!) and she also said she sees unemployment shooting up another 35% to 13% or higher but hey – at least she said something positive about the banks and that’s all the media needed to hear to tear up the previous week’s entire playbook and switch sides so completely, you have to review the tape just to be sure we didn’t imagine the whole doomed, "head and shoulders" outlook of the week before.

What did I have to say about all this nonsense last weekend?  I was emphatic, and I’m usually not, and I said for those who would listen: "So here we are, back at the bottom of the trading range I predicted back in March and even as far back as November, when I said that, based on the fundamentals the crash should…

Tags: AAPL, BPOP, CHKI, DIA, FAS, FAZ, FXP, GLD, GOOG, GS, INTC, JPM, MCD, MOS, OIH, QID, SNDK, SRS, TASR, TNK, TTWO, VIX

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Canadian Energy Bulls Seek Call Options in Suncor

by Andrew Wilkinson - July 17th, 2009 4:24 pm

Today’s tickers: SU, EEM, IBM, AXP, MOS, GE, YHOO & MMM

SU – The Canadian energy company appeared on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner today following a frenzy of bullish call buying activity in the August contract. Suncor’s shares climbed more than 4% during the trading day to $30.61, leading stocks in Canada higher on the rise in price of oil and the unexpected increase in June housing starts. Option-bulls purchased more than 17,000 calls at the August 31 strike price for an average premium of 1.56 apiece. Shares of SU must rally higher by about 6% in order for investors to begin to amass profits beyond the breakeven point of $32.56. Traders expecting an even sharper rise in the price of the underlying were seen picking up 5,300 calls at the higher August 32 strike for 1.00 per contract. These individuals are hoping shares breach $33.00 by expiration next month. – Suncor Energy Inc.

EEM – The emerging markets exchange-traded fund attracted one trader to initiate a bullish reversal amid a slight 1% rally in shares today to $33.61. The August 33 strike price had 20,000 puts sell for an average premium of 1.28 apiece spread against the purchase of 20,000 in-the-money calls at the same strike for 1.65 apiece. The net cost of the bullish play amounts to 37 cents to the investor responsible for the transaction. Selling the put options reduced the cost of buying the calls such that the trader has already amassed profits. Shares are currently 24 cents higher than the effective breakeven point of $33.37. Continued upward movement in the price of EEM will fatten this investor’s wallet through expiration. – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index

IBM – The world’s largest computer-services provider reported second-quarter earnings of 2.32 per share, putting average analyst estimates of 2.02 per share to shame. Shares of the firm have enjoyed a more than 3% rally today to $114.35, following the bullish earnings report. Option traders in the August contract have provided some guidance as to where the stock may be trading through expiration next month. The initiation of a sold strangle indicates this investor wants shares to remain at or about where they currently stand, yet has a decent amount of latitude into expiraiton. About 2,000 puts were sold for an average premium of 97 cents apiece at the August 105 strike price in…

Tags: AXP, EEM, GE, IBM, MMM, MOS, SU, YHOO

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Whirlpool Call Buyers in a Spin Over New Chinese Factory

by Andrew Wilkinson - July 16th, 2009 5:49 pm

Today’s tickers: WHR, MRK, EBAY, RHI, XLP, MOS, GE, LSI & MGM

WHR – The manufacturer of appliances and products for home use experienced a 7% surge in shares to $53.34 after announcing yesterday that it has opened a new factory in China with another appliance company known as Hisense-Kelon Electrical Holdings. Option traders were seen buying bullish call options at the July 55 strike price where 2,800 lots were scooped up for 28 cents each. One investor was seen locking into gains by purchasing a put spread in the August contract. The August 50 strike price had 2,200 puts bought for 2.61 apiece spread against the sale of 2,200 puts at the lower August 44 strike for a premium of 86 cents. The net cost of the spread amounts to 1.75 and yields maximum potential profits of 4.25 if shares of WHR recede to $44.00 by expiration next month. Finally, additional bullishness was observed as high as the August 60 strike price where traders bought 1,200 calls for an average premium of 1.37 per contract. Option implied volatility on Whirlpool has been steadily rising over the past two days, opening at about 53% on Wednesday and increasing to the current reading of 60%. – Whirlpool Corp.

MRK– The pharmaceutical company appeared on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after a ratio put spread was implemented in the October contract. The investor responsible for the transaction appears to be positioning for continued downward movement in the stock. Shares are currently lower by less than 0.5% to $27.69. The ratio spread involved the purchase of 5,715 in-the-money puts at the October 29 strike price for a premium of 2.70 each against the sale of 11,440 puts at the lower October 26 strike for 1.20 per contract. By selling twice as many puts, the investor reduced the cost of the transaction to just 30 cents. Thus, he will attain the maximum profits available of 2.70 if the stock declines to $26.00 by expiration. – Merck & Co., Inc.

EBAY – Shares of the online marketplace have enjoyed a rally of more than 4% today to arrive at the current price of $18.61. Investors who are hoping for continued upward movement in the price of the underlying were seen positioning themselves in the August contract. Approximately 6,500 call options were coveted at the August 20 strike price…

Tags: EBAY, GE, LSI, MGM, MOS, MRK, RHI, WHR, XLP

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Thoughtful Thursday Morning

by Phil - May 21st, 2009 8:17 am

Well, this is a nice, orderly sell-off so far.

That makes me very happy.  We have needed a correction for some time and, as Trader Mike points out on this S&P chart, while we do have the double top I predicted on Tuesday morning, we are not in a downtrend until we cross back under that 875 line.  Holding that level will mean we’re just having a nice, healthy consolidation month – which is what we wanted to see all along! 

Our Members could not have been happier as we followed our game plan for the week and got pretty much everything we wished for including the silly morning spike in the Dow and Oil that we were able to short into.  If only the Ags fall off their perch we will be entering the holiday weekend with a perfect triple play for the week and back to cash so we can really enjoy our holiday weekend with no worries at all.  Of course our hedged entries are still on but they are hedged and we never worry about them do we?  On the whole, we’d like to see a bit more sell-off so we can start buying again and, as I mentioned to Members this morning when I reviewed my market value outlook, we are still hoping to see 7,900 to punch our Buy List but we’re probably going to be willing to settle for 8,100, which was the Dow’s May low.

We were willing to settle for $61 oil to short into but we got an early Memorial Day gift as oil went all the way up to $62 despite my warning America that it was a scam and despite my telling Da Boyz at the NYMEX that we would be "shorting the hell out of it" as they took it up.  Today we be jammin’ with the USO $33 puts we picked up yesterday at $1.15, just off the low of the day (and they were $1.90 on Tuesday).  OIH was also a gift as they ran up to $104 and my  trade idea of the Oct $85 puts I closed out the morning post with came in at just $4.50 as they spiked up and finished the day already up over 20%.  People ask me why I don’t pick more straight stocks sometimes and this is a good case to point out that I’m ALWAYS picking…

Tags: DIA, FSLR, MOS, OIH, POT, USO

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Trade Rewind: Anatomy of Our Winning Ag Plays

by Phil - May 16th, 2009 8:28 am

A lot of mail we get from people interested in our service had the question: "Are option trades as easy to follow as stock trades?"

I think the quick answer to that is yes for straight options and no for spreads but like many things that are worth doing, they are worth learning.  I’m going to start a new teaching series here so we can analyze some trades after the fact as practice may make perfect but it also pays to go over our winners as well as our mistakes as finding out where we went right is as important as finding out where we went wrong.  Trading has, of late, become much less about the merits of the particular stock and more about the timing of your entries as good stocks and bad stocks can move up and down 5% on any given day.

One of the things we like to do is watch for overbought sectors to short.  We had been taking pot-shots at POT all week as it was really running away with itself and on Thursday I discussed with members how the whole sector was getting overbought and, in Friday morning’s post I said: "I advocate more shorts into the open if they insist on this ridiculous pre-market pump (down just .25% at 9 am), especially in the over-hyped Agriculture industry, which could not be up for stupider reasons," which neatly summarized my outlook on the sector. 

We got exactly the pump action we wanted in the morning and I sent out a 10:34 Alert to Members, sensing that we were topping out on the run in the indexes and I recommended the following plays:

Big disconnect with DBA and AGU, MOS and POT now.  It’s a little crazy to do a day trade but the POT $115 puts have .20 in premium at $6.10 and you can sell the $110 puts for $2 if it turns against you.  I like the June $90 puts on them for $1.95, looking for $1 and rolling up if it goes the other way at .85 per $5.

AGU July $40 puts are $1.05.  MOS $50 puts are a fun day trade for .10 but you need to get 3/4 out at .15 and leave the 1/4 or 1/2 out at .20 and 1/2 out at .30 if you get that lucky but consider the .10

…

Tags: AGU, DIA, GOOG, MOO, MOS, Options, POT

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UPS Put Action

by Andrew Wilkinson - May 12th, 2009 4:58 pm

Today’s tickers: UPS, BBY, MBI, XLF, HIG, MOS & ASML

UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. – The package delivery company, which delivers an average of more than 14.7 million pieces per day around the globe, has experienced a share price decline of more than 2.5% to $54.35. UPS appeared near the top of our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner this afternoon after one investor traded massive chunks of put options on the stock. The trader looks to be extending downside protection by establishing a multi-leg calendar spread. The now in-the-money May 55 strike price saw the sale of 36,000 puts for a premium of 1.85 apiece spread against two purchases. The first 20,000 puts were picked up at the June 55 strike price for a premium of 3.40 each while the second chunk of 20,000 put options were bought at the July 55 strike price at a cost of 4.10 to the trader. All three legs of the trade were enacted simultaneously and protect the investor – who is likely long the stock – from downward movements in the share price over the next couple of months. Other noteworthy activity on UPS occurred at the June 60 strike price where bullish individuals purchased 3,700 calls for an average premium of 45 cents apiece. Shares would need to rally by 11% from the current price and breach the breakeven point at $60.45 in order for bulls to profit on the June 60 calls by expiration.

BBY Best Buy Company, Inc. – Shares of the specialty retailer have suffered a decline of more than 3.5% to $36.75. We observed option traders taking a bearish stance on the stock today, particularly in the June contract. The June 35 strike price had traders stocking up on downside protection as some 9,000 puts were coveted for an average premium of 1.96 apiece. An additional 1,750 put options were picked up at the higher June 36 strike for a pricier 2.41 each. The pessimistic view for next month was confirmed as some 1,800 calls were sold at the June 42.5 strike price for about 81 cents per contract. Option implied volatility on Best Buy has climbed since yesterday’s reading of 54% to the current value of 62%.

MBI MBIA Inc. – The financial services firm climbed as high as $7.90 today after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results, although the stock has seen gains erode over…

Tags: ASML, BBY, HIG, MBI, MOS, UPS, XLF

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