2009 REVIEW & 2010 PREVIEW
by ilene - December 13th, 2009 9:50 pm
2009 REVIEW & 2010 PREVIEW
Courtesy of The Pragmatic Capitalist
The following is the excellent 2009 review and 2010 preview by PFG Best:
As we approach year-end, I thought it would be helpful to share a quick recap of 2009 and an outlook for 2010. Feel free to call or email me with any questions: Eaven Horter (ehorter@pfgbest.com).
It’s my belief the main market drivers of 2009 were interest
rates and risk aversion. Let’s first begin with the Federal Funds rate. The last elongated period of sub-2% interest rates lasted 3 years – from December 2001 to November 2004. This time period was post-9/11, when our country rebuilt itself in many ways, where low interest rates led to several “asset bubbles” that did indeed end up popping – easy credit and real estate made for a dangerous duo. We are currently just over a year with the Federal Funds rate under 2%, which dropped below the 2% level in October 2008. The current rate was set just a year ago – a historical low of 0% to 0.25%. However, the US economy and global economies are MUCH worse off now then post-9/11. With this in mind, an easy case can be made that Bernanke’s continued message of an “extended period” of low interest rates is truly not just rhetoric.An interesting consideration for this current recession and interest rate scenario is how much more interconnected the world economies are now versus earlier in this decade. What were emerging economies eight years ago are now developing nations, which makes for less of a reliance on larger countries, such as the United States. An example of this is how the world has moved from a G7/G8 focus to a G20 circle, bringing important players into the global economic decision making process. With this interconnectedness, especially in relation to the United States, we saw a focus on commentary and policy from Foreign Central Banks and the large effects these had on global
markets – just look to interest rate increases in Australia and how that affected the value of the USD and the AUD.Luckily, some of us have learned from our histories and we’ve now begun to see lawmakers take proactive measures in respect to asset bubbles. An example would be the



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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(