Bulls Bombard Research in Motion Ahead of BlackBerry 9800 Launch
by Andrew Wilkinson - July 28th, 2010 5:21 pm
Today’s tickers: RIMM, INTU, LVS, RRC, MHS, HSP & CHS
RIMM – Research in Motion Limited – Optimistic options players populated the Blackberry maker’s August contract, selling puts and buying calls to prepare for the price of the underlying stock to continue climbing ahead of expiration day next month. RIMM’s shares rallied as much as 4.53% today to an intraday high of $55.59 on reports the Canadian company will reveal its new touch screen BlackBerry in New York next Tuesday. Investors are chomping at the bit to see if the BlackBerry 9800 can give iPhone maker, Apple, a run for its money – or market share. RIMM’s shares have bounced up off their early-July lows, but the recovery could be short-lived if the 9800 turns out to be a disappointment. Traders hoping to see a successful launch of the touch screen device, and subsequent share price appreciation, employed bullish strategies. Investors picked up at least 3,800 calls at the now in-the-money August $55 strike for an average premium of $2.15 apiece. Buying interest spread to the higher August $57.5 strike where 3,900 calls were purchased at an average premium of $1.16 each. Uber-bulls bought roughly 2,900 call options at the August $60 strike for an average premium of $0.68 a-pop. Investors long the August $60 strike calls are poised to profit should RIMM’s shares surge 9.25% to surpass the average breakeven price of $60.68 by August expiration. The sale of out-of-the-money put options is another bullish signal investors are itching for the current rally to continue. Traders sold some 2,000 puts at the August $50 strike for an average premium of $0.55 each, and shed another 5,200 puts at the higher August $52.5 strike for an average premium of $1.21 apiece. In total, options players exchanged more than 91,300 contracts on Research in Motion by 3:40 pm ET. Options implied volatility on RIMM is up 3.4% to 43.85% ahead of the final bell.
INTU – Intuit Inc. – The provider of business and financial management solutions popped up on our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner late in the trading session after one options strategist initiated a bearish transaction in the October contract. Intuit’s shares are down slightly by 0.15% to stand at $39.50 as of 3:15 pm ET. It looks like the trader bought a plain-vanilla debit put spread, buying 6,346 puts at the October $37.5 strike for a…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Testy Tuesday – Already?
by Phil - July 13th, 2010 8:19 am
Wheeeee, this is fun!
It’s only been a week since I called for "Turnaround Tuesday" and asked the question "Will CNBC Apologize to America" for their ridiculous, sickening parade of negativity that chased their poor viewers out of the market (now 600 points ago) by completely misrepresenting the economic outlook in order to protect the TERRIBLE advice given by Jim Cramer, the Fast Money Crew, their sponsors etc. etc. – it was all one national frenzy of media negativity designed to shove retail investors entirely out of the market while the cognoscenti went shopping.
It’s not just CNBC, of course, it’s a problem with the whole MSM but I ranted about corporate (top 0.01%) control of the media last week so let’s move on as we wave bye-bye to all the beautiful sheeple who were kind enough to sell us their stocks at the bottom, despite my warnings. Our 500% upside plays are now well on their way to making 500% for us and our "9 Fabulous Dow Plays Plus a Chip Shot" are also looking good already. Even the trade ideas I mentioned right in last Tuesday’s post are well on track as I said last week:
On Friday, I had said to Members right at 9:38, in the Morning Alert: "If we run up, then it will be prudent to get more neutral into the weekend but if we stay down and hold our levels, then saying a little bullish will be fine. Out of short-term short trades if you haven’t already. Keep in mind we have some great 500% upside plays you can still grab here if you think you are too short."
The latter was a reference to our 500% upside plays. We also went with EEM July $38 calls at .99, and a QLD $50/53 bull call spread for $1.30 (selling puts as well for more profits) as well as long plays on RIMM, AA, HOV, VLO and TASR. My optimism was based on the considered TA analysis I shared with Members at 2:39:
After completing last month’s "Omega III" market pattern on the Trade Bots, it’s now time to spring the bear trap and run the "Apha II" into options expiration on July 16th. Maybe there will be as little logic to the rise as there was to the fall – who really cares – it’s just our jobs to try to
.jpg)
…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Call Options on Financials ETF (XLF) in High Demand
by Andrew Wilkinson - July 9th, 2010 6:30 pm
Today’s tickers: XLF, MOS, RIMM, F, VVUS, WEN & ALTR
XLF – Financial Select Sector SPDR – Near-term bullish bets that shares of the XLF, an exchange-traded fund designed to provide investment results that correspond to the price and yield performance of the Financial Select Sector of the S&P 500 Index, are set to rally ahead of July expiration jumped during afternoon trading. Shares of the ETF increased nearly 1.5% during the session to stand at $14.52 by 3:15 pm (ET). Options investors itching for a rally in the price of the underlying shares purchased at least 115,000 calls outright at the July $15 strike for an average premium of $0.08 per contract. Call buyers are prepared to profit should shares of the XLF gain 3.85% to trade above the average breakeven price of $15.08 by expiration next Friday.
MOS – The Mosaic Co. – Shares of the producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients are up 3.3% to $46.20 with less than 45 minutes remaining ahead of the closing bell. Mosaic’s shares earlier rallied as much as 3.95% to touch an intraday high of $46.49. One bullish strategist purchased a debit call spread on the stock in order to position for Mosaic’s shares to increase substantially by expiration day in September. The trader picked up 2,800 calls at the September $50 strike for an average premium of $1.99 apiece, and sold the same number of calls at the higher September $65 strike for an average premium of $0.07 each. Net premium paid for the spread amounts to $1.92 per contract. The investor responsible for the transaction makes money as long as the potash producer’s shares surge 12.4% in the next several months to exceed the average breakeven point on the spread at $51.92 by expiration. Maximum available profits of $13.08 per contract pad the investor’s wallet if MOS shares jump 39.8% to trade above $65.00 by expiration day in September. Mosaic’s shares last traded above $65.00 back on January 11, 2010, when the stock reached an intraday and new 52-week high of $68.28.
RIMM – Research in Motion Ltd. – News the Blackberry maker plans to start an applications store as well as consumer Internet services in China sent RIMM’s shares up 8.47% in afternoon trading to an intraday high of $53.65 by 3:25 pm (ET). Optimism on the firm’s expansion in the Chinese market was…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Turnaround Tuesday – Will CNBC Apologize to America?
by Phil - July 6th, 2010 8:24 am
I wasn’t worried, were you?
Actually, we were worried enough this weekend to revisit "5 Plays that Make 500% if the Market Falls" as we took off our very profitable April 28th disaster hedges in last week’s dip, leaving us net long and just a little nervous going into the weekend. As I mentioned last week, I find myself in the very strange situation during capitulation cycles of having to push back against general Member sentiment as even the most experienced traders tend to fall victim to the combination of market and media manipulation when it’s as relentless as it has been for the last 10 sessions as the markets dropped 7.5%, pretty much without a break.
We first noticed the all-out media attack on the markets way back on June 15th, when CNBC featured the tag-team combination of Pimpco’s Mohaned El-Erian and Nouriel "Doctor Doom" Roubini – one who is pushing his bonds and one who is pushing his book and both of whom can be counted on to spin things as negatively as possible. That very effectively put the breaks on the rally from 9,800 on June 7th to 10,450 (6.6%) on June 15h and ran us back down to lower lows as EVERYTHING that happened since then was put into a negative light. I won’t rehash all the idiotic statements made by Cramer or the Fast Money crew or the rest of the Criminal Narrators Boosting Commodities – it’s either obvious to you or you’ll never see it at this point.
CNBC has been woking the markets over since May 21st, when I first pointed out how negative their coverage had shifted. Over the weekend, we discussed the workings of the game and the players that CNBC work for and, wouldn’t you know it – this morning, timed for lunch in the EU, Dr. Doom Roubini is their very special guest – AGAIN! El-Erian and Gross were kind enough to warn people this morning that "shares are no bargain as the recovery fades" and Barton Biggs is telling anyone who will listen that he liquidated half his tech holdings last week. Funny how they don’t tell you WHEN they are buying or selling, just a mention after the fact to "help you" make the right decision.
“The psychology of the stock market couldn’t be worse, yet the valuation probably couldn’t be a whole lot better,” said Phil Orlando, the New York-based chief equity…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Bullish Strategist Positions for Rebound in Plains Exploration & Production Co. Shares
by Andrew Wilkinson - June 28th, 2010 5:49 pm
Bullish strategist positions for rebound in Plains Exploration & Production Co. shares
Today’s tickers: PXP, MRVL, SRE, RIMM, MU, AFL, BMY & DELL
PXP – Plains Exploration & Production Co. – The implementation of a three-legged bullish options combination play on Plains Exploration & Production Co. drew our attention to the November contract where one investor utilized call and put options to position for a rebound in the price of the underlying stock. Shares of the independent oil and gas company soured in late afternoon trading, slipping 3.2% lower to stand at $20.98 by 3:35 pm (ET). PXP’s current price of $20.98 represents a 40.4% decline in value since April 15, 2010, when the stock touched an intraday high of $35.41. But, the options activity observed in the November contract today indicates one trader is expecting the stock to rebound sharply ahead of expiration in five months time. The investor essentially sold short put options in order to partially finance the purchase of a debit call spread. The trader purchased 10,000 calls at the November $22.5 strike for a premium of $2.45 each, sold 10,000 calls at the higher November $28 strike for a premium of $0.70 each, and finally sold 10,000 puts at the November $17.5 strike for a premium of $1.30 a-pop. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.45 per contract. Thus, the investor responsible for the three-legged play is positioned to make money as long as PXP’s shares rally 9.4% to surpass the effective breakeven price of $22.95 by expiration day in November. Maximum potential profits of $5.05 per contract are available to the trader if Plains’ shares surge 33.5% to surpass $28.00 by November expiration.
MRVL – Marvell Technology Group Ltd. – Global semiconductor maker, Marvell Technology Group Ltd., popped up on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner in the second half of the trading session due to rampant bearish options activity in the July and August contracts. Marvell’s shares edged 1.50% lower this afternoon to stand at $17.11 just ahead of the closing bell. Pessimistic traders expecting shares to continue lower ahead of July expiration sold 3,100 calls at the July $17 strike for an average premium of $0.74 each. Call selling spread to the August $15 strike where 2,300 in-the-money calls were sold at an average premium of $2.52 per contract. Perhaps in-the-money call sellers are hoping to keep…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Frenetic Options Activity Apparent as Shares of BP PLC, Research in Motion Ltd. Tank
by Andrew Wilkinson - June 25th, 2010 4:25 pm
Today’s tickers: BP, RIMM, ACN, NE, NTGR & XLE
BP – BP PLC – Contrarian options investors itching for a rebound in bruised and battered BP shares initiated three-legged bullish options combination plays today with shares of the underlying stock falling more than 6.15% to $26.97 with less than one hour remaining before the closing bell. BP’s shares touched down at an intraday and 14-year low of $26.92 during the current session. Optimistic traders expecting shares to increase by August expiration sold out-of-the-money put options to partially finance the purchase of debit call spreads. One such bullish individual opted to sell 5,000 puts at the August $20 strike for a premium of $1.41 apiece, buy 5,000 calls at the higher August $30 strike for a premium of $2.37 each, and finally sell 5,000 calls at the August $35 strike for a premium of $0.79 a-pop. The net cost of the combo-play amounts to just $0.17 per contract. Thus, the BP-bull is poised to profit if shares of the oil company rally 11.9% over the current price of $26.97 to surpass the effective breakeven point to the upside at $30.17 by August expiration. The trader walks away with maximum potential profits of $4.83 per contract, or total gains of $2.415 million, if shares of the underlying stock surge 29.8% to trade at or above $35.00 by expiration day. The transaction is a very efficient way to take a bullish stance on BP, but it is not without its risks. If shares remain above $20.00 but fail to rally through $30.00 by expiration the investor merely loses the $0.17 per contract paid to enact the spread. However, if shares plunge 25.85% from the current price to breach the $20.00-level, the investor is obliged to have shares of the underlying stock put to him at $20.00 apiece. This could potentially result in devastating losses depending on how low BP shares could go ahead of expiration day in August.
RIMM – Research in Motion, Ltd. – The blackberry maker’s shares fell as much as 11.15% today, shattering its now defunct 52-week low of $54.30, to attain an intraday- and new 52-week low of $52.05. Blood-letting in RIMM shares accelerated today adding to dismal overall performance in the past several months. Shares of the underlying stock are down 31.5% since March 29 when the stock touched an intraday high of $76.78. RIMM’s shares took a…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Which Way Wednesday – Fed Up Edition
by Phil - April 7th, 2010 7:56 am
I don’t know what Fed minutes the market red yesterday but the ones I read scared me!
As usual, I went through the minutes in Member Chat (and there’s a highlighted version in Seeking Alpha minus my color-coding) and the red (negative) statements are far outnumbering the green (shoots) in the minutes including little blow-offs like "the Federal Reserve’s total assets had risen to about $2.3 trillion" and "the Desk had been reinvesting all maturing Treasury securities by exchanging those holdings for newly issued Treasury securities" which, if you put them together in non-BS language, pretty much says: "Of the $1.3Tn in Treasuries sold in 2009, it’s hard to see how the Fed bought less than half of them, maybe closer to all of them since we rolled our short-term paper over each time, therefore buying much more than it seems."
Once again, the finger is pointed sqarely at Commercial Real Estate as, according to the minutes: "Conditions in the nonresidential construction sector generally remained poor. Real outlays on structures outside of the drilling and mining sector fell again in the fourth quarter, and nominal expenditures dropped further in January. The weakness was widespread across categories and likely reflected rising vacancy rates, falling property prices, and difficult financing conditions for new projects." In a real economy, that statement alone would send investors running for the exits but we also got these three – all in a row:
The dollar value of commercial real estate sales remained very low in February, and the share of properties sold at a nominal loss inched higher. The delinquency rate on commercial mortgages in securitized pools increased in January, and the delinquency rate on commercial mortgages at commercial banks rose in the fourth quarter. The percentage of delinquent construction loans at banks also ticked higher in the fourth quarter.
Delinquency rates on credit card loans in securitized pools and on auto loans at captive finance companies remained elevated in January but were down a bit from their recent peaks.
Total bank credit contracted substantially in January and February. Banks’ securities holdings declined at a modest pace after several months of steady growth, and total loans on banks’ books continued to drop.
The Fed blows off this bad news by noting that CDS rates were ignoring the weakness in CRE (so we should too?) and, even worse is the way the Fed keeps…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Short (but Wild) Weekly Wrap-Up
by Phil - April 3rd, 2010 7:55 am
What a crazy week!
The markets were bucking like a bronco but were they trying to throw off the shorts prior to a move back down or trying to flush out the weak-handed longs prior to a big breakout to new levels? After gapping open to 10,900 on Monday morning we went up to 10,950, down to 10,830 and back to 10,950 – all to finish the week at 10,927, which is up 39 points since March 23rd so don’t tell me we’re wasting out time as that’s 5 points a day baby (if we round up).
We had the day off on Friday but we did get the critical Non-Farm Payroll data for March but, as noted in my report (and in the Member Chat), despite the very excited reaction from the futures, there is no clear indication there that either the Bulls or Bears have a lasting point. So perhaps the wild market action is nothing more than good old-fashioned indecision – the futures flew up but then Goldman said they saw "Little Underlying Improvement" in the data and that "Productivity Gains Have Diminished Sharply" - clearly mixed signals that may take some time to resolve.
Last weekend, I complained that it was a "6-Point Weekly Wrap-Up" as that’s all we got from the S&P, which finished at 1,166. This week I am happy to report that we gained 12 points – all the way to 1,178 and we are closing in on that 1,080 mark, which we did touch briefly at Thursday’s open (which gave us the great shorting opportunity we had looked for in Thursday morning’s post!). It’s not that I don’t respect the rally – technically, you have to respect the rally but that’s why we’re in cash: We can take advantage of these huge intra-day moves down (and sometimes up) - getting our 6-second bull rides and scoring as many points as we can before the rodeo clowns turn on the buy programs and stop the ride.
Overall, it’s a pretty mindless market. You can go long at about about 2pm and flip short about 10 am the next morning – in the futures that can add up to shocking amounts of money and it sure isn’t bad when you are using options for leverage either. We’re sure the game will collapse one day and hopefully we’ll be able to pull the rip cord without…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Bears Bombard Blackberry-Maker, Research in Motion
by Andrew Wilkinson - March 1st, 2010 5:00 pm
Today’s tickers: RIMM, CAT, MGM, F, SLM, FRX, FXI, MWW & AIG
RIMM – Research in Motion Limited – Blackberry maker, Research in Motion, attracted bearish options strategists even though the firm’s target share price was upped to $100.00 this morning from $95.00 at Canaccord Adams. RIMM opened the session higher, but slipped slightly in afternoon trading by 0.05% to $70.85. One bearish tactic employed today was the use of a plain-vanilla put spread in the March contract. The trader responsible for the transaction purchased 4,400 puts at the March $65 strike for a premium of $0.54 apiece and sold the same number of puts at the lower March $60 strike for $0.20 each. The net cost of the spread amounts to $0.34 per contract. Maximum potential profits of $4.66 per contract are available to the investor if RIMM’s share price slumps 15.30% beneath the current value to $60.00 by expiration. We note that the mobile device manufacturer’s shares last traded below $60.00 on December 4, 2009. The bearish risk reversal is another pessimistic tactic utilized today. One trader sold 5,000 calls at the April $75 strike for a premium of $2.66 each in order to purchase 5,000 puts at the lower April $70 strike for $3.80 apiece. The net cost of the reversal play amounts to $1.14 per contract. The investor stands ready to accrue profits to the downside if shares of the underlying stock trade beneath the effective breakeven point at $68.86 by expiration in April.
CAT – Caterpillar, Inc. – February marked the seventh consecutive month of manufacturing expansion in the United States; this fact, coupled with today’s jump in equities’ prices, inspired bullish options trading on machine-maker, Caterpillar. CAT’s shares rallied 1.50% during the session to $57.92 after its earnings forecast through the year 2012 were increased by analysts at Morgan Stanley. MS maintains an ‘overweight’ rating on CAT and a $70 share price target, at present. Bullish options activity appeared on the put side of the field where one investor established a credit spread. The trader sold roughly 16,300 puts at the April $55 strike for a premium of $1.38 apiece, and purchased the same number of puts at the lower April $50 strike for $0.47 each. The investor pockets a net credit of $0.91 per contract, and keeps the full amount as long as Caterpillar’s share price remains above $55.00 through expiration day in…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
Testy Tuesday Morning
by Phil - January 5th, 2010 8:27 am
Wow – what a lot of work to get back to last Tuesday’s high!
As usual, the vast majority of gains came in pre-market trading and the rest came in light-volume, early morning trading while the rest of the day was dominated by every buyer finding a willing seller for 75% of the day’s volume. We saw what happened on Thursday when someone big wants to sell and there are no buyers so we’ll see how long the bull’s luck (manufactured or otherwise) will hold out as we begin to get economic data along with some early earnings reports.
The Ag sector popped 2% yesterday ahead of tonight’s earings from MOS with MON checking in tomorrow morning so we’ll see how wise those last-minute bets were in short order. SONC also has earnings tonight and we like those guys long-term. SONC makes a decent buy/write candidate as you can buy the stock for $10.29 and sell June $10 puts and calls for $2.25 for a net entry of $8.04 with a very nice 24% profit if called away at $10 and an average entry of $9.02 (a 12% discount) if more stock is put to you below $10 in June.
FDO and WOR also report tomorrow morning. FDO will be interesting but a weak dollar probably hurt them last quarter. Tomorrow night we hear from BBBY, BLUD, OHB and Sonic competitor RT, who seem a bit pricey at $7.50. Thursday we get our first real builder, LEN along with STZ and TXI. After the bell on Thursday we hear from APOL, CRI and SCHN with GBX and PSMT on Friday. AA officially kicks of earnings season next Monday with GAP, INFY, KBH, BGG, SCHW, SHFL, INTC and JPM highlighting the reporters.
We have plenty of data this week including Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales at 10 am along with December Auto Sales throughout the day (did you get a new car for Christmas?). Tomorrow is jobs day, with the ADP Report and Challenger Job Cuts ahead of the bell followed by ISM Services (yesterday’s ISM was a nice beat) and, of course, Crude Inventories at 10:30 which are unlikely to sustain $82 oil (USO Jan $40 puts for .80 are a good way to play this). We talked about the other stuff yesterday so I won’t repeat it – suffice to say we have plenty of data this week to see if we justify these lofty levels.
Everyone is talking…
Email This Post
del.icio.us
Digg
Reddit
Stumble
Yahoo
BlinkBits
BlinkList
German
Spanish
French
Italian
Portuguese
Japanese
Korean
Russian
Chinese
Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(