Weekly Wrap-Up, it’s Only a 55-Point Drop You Wimps!
by Phil - February 7th, 2010 12:19 pm
That’s right, I said WIMPS!
I have never heard so much whining and crying and complaining about a market drop as I have the past few weeks. Last week, I pointed out that we had only fallen 105 points from the prior week (10,172 to 10,067) and this week we fell ALL THE WAY to 10,012 to finish the week and you would think the world was ending (again) from the way the MSM has been acting.
By Friday the panic was palpable as we gave up Monday and Tuesday’s bogus gains to test new lows for the year – testing, in fact, the lowest levels the market has hit since last November and I pointed out in Friday’s post that it reminded me of when BSC and LEH went under and everyone panicked and sold Financials off to the point where Warren Buffet was willing to give GS $5Bn AFTER they bounced 50% – THAT’s how undervalued the financials were in November of 2008.
What do we do while people are panicking? We BUY! We don’t BUYBUYBUY like Cramer’s Pavlovian Peons but we sure do BUY and take some nice entry positions with sensible hedges. I was finally motivated to finish updating our Buy List on Friday and 18 of our 38 positions were highlighted (immediately actionable) on Friday. Sure they may go lower, but we’re buying them with 20% buffers built into the positions and then we can double down if they drop 40% (back to Nov 2008 lows) and then we’ll have our entries down 10% from the lowest levels of the past decade or so that we can hold until the next decade – what’s there to panic over?
If I wanted to buy IBM in January but thought it was a little pricey at $134, why would I not be HAPPY to have the opportunity to make an enty at $122, back at where they were pre FABULOUS October earnings? I can buy IBM for $122 and take advantage of the panic-induced VIX at 26 to sell July $125 calls for $6.60 and the July $120 puts for $6.65 for a net entry of $108.75 with a call away at $125 for a $16.25 profit (15%) in 5 months. If IBM should fall below $120, we will have a second round of the stock put to us as $120 for an average entry of $114.38, another 6.2% lower than it is…
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Thursday – Greece is the Word
by Phil - February 4th, 2010 8:29 am
Greece is the word these days.
We are getting a sell-off every morning as Europe goes through the daily ritual of waking up and seeing the cost of default protection rise and rise. This morning Greece is with STUPID (Spain, Turkey, UK, Portugal, Italy & Dubai – coined by Zero Hedge) as five-year sovereign credit default swap spreads were recently at 4.23 percentage points, compared with Wednesday’s closing level of 3.97 percentage points. That means the annual cost of insuring €10 million of Greek government debt against default for five years had risen €26,000 to €423,000. In a nutshell, that’s 4.23% annually to insure Greek bonds from default so Greece needs to offer 4.23% more interest on their bonds than an Aaa nation to attract investors.
Of course, my new "I’m with STUPID" T-shirt franchise is going like gangbusters as we are getting orders from all over the US, especially California, as our own triple-A credit rating may not last the year. Japan is a strong customer (mostly small and extra-small) and sales are strong in France and, of course, Mexico and all of South America.
Keeping up with the STUPIDs is no easy feat as Portugal’s CDS spreads jumped 15% overnight to an all-time high 2.26 while Spain gained 10% to 1.68%. (Have I mentioned I like TBT lately?) The moves followed news Wednesday that the European Commission had put Greece under more pressure to cut its deficit; that the Portuguese government sold only €300 million of treasury bills at an auction, compared with an indicative offer of €500 Million; and that the Spanish government had raised its budget deficit forecasts for 2010 through 2012.
As we expected in yesterday’s post, Greek workers were none too pleased with the EU’s budget plan for their country and is rejecting the idea of wage freezes on top of wage cuts. Greece’s biggest union is moving towards a mass strike and the public-employee union is planning a job action next week as well. Tax collectors are striking, customs workers are striking, which is screwing up the airports and shipyards and delaying commerce all over Europe – shades of things to come perhaps?
Napoleon said: "A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonetes" and John Kennedy said: "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable" and what we are seeing here is backlash as workers of the world have been pushed…
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Options Trader Plants Bearish Augury on Oracle
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 3rd, 2010 4:20 pm
Today’s tickers: ORCL, SKX, EEM, TM, ZION, DHI, BBBY, RL, MCD & MYGN
ORCL – Oracle Corp. – A massive bearish transaction on software manufacturer, Oracle Corp., paints a gloomy picture for Oracle investors through expiration in June. Shares are trading 0.15% lower on the day to $23.73 with just under two hours remaining in the trading session. The pessimistic portent is a bearish risk reversal transacted in the June contract on the stock. The trader responsible for the reversal sold 34,700 calls at the June $24 strike for an average premium of $1.37 each in order to offset the cost of purchasing 34,700 put options at the lower June $23 strike for $1.24 premium apiece. A net credit of $0.13 per contract pads the investor’s wallet as long as the June $24 strike call options remain out-of-the-money through expiration day. Additional profits, or downside protection on a long stock position, kick in if shares of the underlying trade under $23.00 ahead of June expiration.
SKX – Sketchers USA, Inc. – Street and fashion footwear design firm, Sketchers USA, received a vote of confidence by a bullish options player today despite the 4.25% decline in shares of the underlying stock to $28.54. The investor etched optimism into the July contract on Sketchers by utilizing the ratio call spread strategy. The trader purchased 1,500 calls at the July $30 strike for a premium of $3.00 apiece, spread against the sale of 3,000 calls at the higher July $40 strike for an average premium of $0.60 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $1.80 per contract. In the next six months to expiration, SKX-shares must rally 11.40% from their current value in order for the investor to breakeven at a share price of $31.80. Maximum potential profits of $8.20 per contract accumulate should shares explode 40% higher to $40.00 ahead of expiration in July.
EEM – iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – An enormous bullish bet on the EEM today implies one investor is positioning for a 5%-11.25% rebound in global markets by March expiration. Shares of the emerging markets exchange-traded fund, which was developed by MSCI as an equity benchmark for international stock performance, dipped slightly lower by 0.20% during the current session to $39.55. Optimism on the fund came in the form of a large-volume call spread in the March contract. The trader responsible for the transaction…
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Hewlett-Packard Bull Dabbles in Call Options
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 28th, 2010 4:24 pm
Today’s tickers: HPQ, GS, XLE, QCOM, JPM, TM, SLV, EK, GMCR & TYC
HPQ – Hewlett-Packard Co. – Shares of technology giant, Hewlett-Packard Co., are down 3.5% to $47.70 this afternoon, but the actions of one option trader indicates the stock may rebound by expiration in March. Call activity in the March contract effectively mimics a ratio call spread strategy, which positions the investor to benefit from a move higher in share price in the next couple of months. The ratio call spread took place at the March $46 strike where 5,000 in-the-money calls were purchased for a premium of $3.20 apiece. At the higher March $50 strike, 10,000 call options were sold for an average premium of $1.15 each. Assuming both trades are the work of one investor, the net cost of the bullish move amounts to $0.90 per contract. Maximum potential profits of $3.10 per contract accrue to the upside if shares of the underlying rally to $50.00 by expiration. We note that shares of Hewlett-Packard last traded above $50.00 as recently as January 21, 2010.
GS – Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – A couple of contrasting option trades caught our eye this afternoon on investment banking institution, Goldman Sachs Group. Goldman’s shares edged 1.15% higher in late-day trading to stand at $153.22. The first and nearer-term of the two transactions appeared in the March contract. The sale of more than 6,800 call options at the March $160 strike for an average premium of $4.58 apiece is a bearish signal. Investors selling the calls apparently expect to keep the premium received today because they do not see Goldman’s share price rebounding to- or above $160.00 by expiration in March. Contrary to the call selling described previously, the April contract attracted bullish sentiment. One investor purchased a call spread by picking up 2,000 calls at the April $160 strike for a premium of $5.78 each, marked against the sale of 2,000 calls at the higher April $175 strike for about $2.05 apiece. The trader paid a net $3.73 per contract to position for a rebound in GS shares by expiration in three months time. Shares must rally approximately 7% from the current price before the call-spreader breaks even at a price of $163.73. Maximum potential profits of $11.27 per contract amass if shares surge more than 14% (from $153.22) to $175.00 ahead of April expiration.
XLE – Energy Select…
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Long-term Put Play on Intel Provides Protection through 2011
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 27th, 2010 4:39 pm
Today’s tickers: INTC, FXI, UFS, TM, BRK.B, X, QCOM, MCO, APC, COST, HNZ & DLTR
INTC – Intel Corp. – Shares of chip-making giant, Intel Corp., dipped lower in early trading, but rebounded this afternoon to stand 0.75% higher on the day at $20.15. Long-term protective positioning in the January 2011 contract on the stock suggests cautious optimism by Intel-option traders. One investor purchased a put spread by picking up 5,000 in-the-money puts at the January 2011 $22.5 strike for a premium of $4.05 each, marked against the sale of 5,000 puts at the lower January 2011 $12.5 strike for $0.35 apiece. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $3.70 per contract. The trader responsible for the spread is likely long shares of the underlying stock. The spread, in this scenario, serves as an insurance policy on the value of the underlying position should Intel’s shares slip beneath the effective breakeven price of $18.80 in the next year to expiration. The investor is protected even if shares of the semiconductor chip producer collapse down to $12.50 by January of 2011.
FXI – iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund – Shares of the exchange-traded fund, which invests in twenty-five of the largest and most liquid Chinese companies, are down 0.75% to $38.27 with just under one hour remaining in the trading session. FXI’s share price has declined nearly 15% in the past few weeks, from a 2010 high of $44.53 on January 6, 2010, down to an intraday low today of $37.89. One option trader’s actions in the March contract today suggest he has had enough of the downturn, and is looking for a sharp rebound by expiration in two months. The investor initiated a three-legged combination play using both calls and puts on the fund. It appears the main portion of the trade is a ratio-bullish risk reversal involving the sale of 5,000 deep in-the-money put options at the March $41 strike for a premium of $3.66 each, spread against the purchase of 10,000 calls at the same strike for $0.70 apiece. The purchase of 10,000 puts at the March $35 strike for $0.85 each rounded out the third leg of the transaction. The investor pockets a net credit of $0.56 per contract on the trade, which he keeps if shares rally up to $41.00 by expiration. Additional profits accrue to the upside if shares bounce 7.15% higher to…
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Wild Weekly Wrap-Up, Topping or Popping?
by Phil - November 14th, 2009 12:02 pm
This was an annoying week for bulls and bears alike.
We had a very exciting day on Monday, topping out at 10,248 but I didn’t like the way we got there (low-volume, commodity rally, as noted in David Fry’s chart) and, when pressed for a prediction on TV that evening, I had to say that I felt that we were more likely to be down by Thanksgiving than up with a possible Santa Claus bounce into Christmas. What we did get for the remainder of the week was very choppy action on even lower volume.
I had mentioned in last week’s "Wrong-Way Weekly Wrap-Up" that we were partying like it’s 1999 as we broke through Dow 10,000 and S&P 1,080, despite rapidly deteriorating fundamentals. Stocks are being bought because they are going up in price (much like commodities), not because there is any actual demand for them and that is very clear from the rapidly declining index volume as we run back into resistance at S&P 1,100.
Since early September our upside targets for the indexes have been: Dow 10,087, S&P 1,096, Nasdaq 2,173, NYSE 7,204 and Russell 623 and nothing has happened to change our fundamental outlook for the better so the closer we get to those levels, the LESS comfortable we are taking bullish positions. In fact, yesterday as we got our mid-day spike to 10,300, I told members that it was sorely tempting to just cash out all bullish positions and take 20% of the portfolio 100% bearish with a 10% stop. Rather than mess around with a mix of positions, going fully bearish can allow for some spectacular gains if we crash and stopping out with a 50% loss would suck – but a breakout like that, well above Dow 11,000 and S&P 1,200 would certainly give us reason to be more bullish.
As I concluded last week: "We’re generally not happy until we see Russell 600 and the Dow Transports over 4,000 (now 3,852) and we took a 55% bearish stance into the weekend because we’ll feel a lot less silly being burned by a move up than we would if we weren’t bearish enough for a move down. It would be nice to be able to make more of a commitment but the bulls clearly have the bears cowering in fear so we’ll just patiently wait and see how far they can play things out." Not much has changed…
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Testy Tuesday – Topping or Popping?
by Phil - October 13th, 2009 8:15 am
I told you yesterday would be fun!
Will today be funner? Is funner a word? As you know, I have been determined to get more bullish and our Watch List is growing every day as I add more and more undervalued companies that still have room to fly if we are truly going to run the S&P back over 1,100 this year. We remain skeptical but you can be skeptical and still make money, as you can see from Corey’s (Afraid to Trade) very nice S&P Chart, you can do very well in this market buying the dips OR selling the tops – we kind of like to do both…
Despite the low volumes, buyers are clearly in control of this market and, in Member Chat yesterday, I compared the situation to having a bet on the Raiders, who lost 44 to 7 on Sunday. You can start out with a bet on the Raiders (in this case, the Bears) but there’s a certain point, perhaps when the 3rd consecutive possession by the Giants (Bulls) ends in a TD, that you have tgo admit you aren’t going to win.
You have a few choices at that point: You can be a perma-Raider and keep betting more and more on your team (not smart); You can swallow your losses and leave the stadium; You can swallow your losses and stay on the sidelines and watch the game; Or you can switch sides and start betting on the Giants, maybe even recovering some of what you lost. You can keep some of your useless-looking Raiders bets, just in case a miracle occurs but what’s the sense of not betting on a clear winner when it’s right in front of you? Even if you are skeptical, that can be useful as it keeps you out of trouble as you should be wise enough to take your profits off the table.
I never understand the "fan" behavior of market players. If you see the market going up and up and up and up – perhaps it’s time to make a few up bets. Bears don’t earn loyalty rewards or get frequent-complainer points from the market so, if your "team" is getting trampled, it’s OK to switch sides – at least for a while – no one will think any less of you. In the case of our bull-market bets, we have a great opportunity to switch sides at a very significant…
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Thrilling Thursday Morning
by Phil - April 30th, 2009 8:48 am
8,200!
Finally we make the target we discussed since the beginning of the month but, sadly, it took another shot of Federal stimulus to get us there. Now what? I did say at the time that I thought it would be a short-term top as 8,200 is the 5% rule bottom of the 8,650 mid-range (8,217 to be exact) that we expected to get back to in May but we didn’t expect to get there without a pullback test of 7,632. Heck, we haven’t even tested 7,900 properly since our very brief visit to 7,699 on the 21st. I didn’t count that as a test as it was brief and 1% off our mark but, since then, the market sure has acted like it aced the test and is ready to move up to the next set of levels.
As we can see from David Fry’s chart of the S&P, the S&P is hitting very serious resistance at about the 885 mark and that ties right in with Dow 8,250 and Nas 1,717, which is our first US index to hit the 40% mark. Our other 40% levels will take some work as we’re looking for Dow 8,413, S&P 946, NYSE 6,232 and Russell 514. The Dow and the Russell have the best chance of getting there but we’ll have to see as, at the moment, the Nasdaq is more of an outlier at the moment. We need to keep an eye on the Nasdaq leadership: GOOG, AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, EBAY, ORCL, INTC… for signs of weakness. If they can’t keep it going, the entire market rally may falter here.
XOM missed by .03 this morning but still earned .92 per share and seem to be forgiven for it. While profits are down 58% from last year, last year was $10.9Bn so $4.6Bn may be disappointing but oil back over $50 does allow the company to project better times ahead (gee, maybe that’s WHY oil is at $51.50 this morning). I wouldn’t touch them with a 10-foot pole as they did beat revenue forecasts by 20% ($64Bn vs $54Bn) which indicates the company is doing a lousy job of controlling costs and may face disaster if the economy doesn’t improve or if oil collapses.
While earnings have been pretty good, expectations have been really low. This is like getting all excited about a limbo contest at the beginning, when all the…
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Weekend Wrap-Up – Dynamic Portfolio Adjustments!
by Phil - March 14th, 2009 11:40 am
Was that a great week or what?
No really, I’m asking as I’m not sure yet… We had a great rally once we got Monday out of the way but, all in all, it was a hell of a lot of work to get back to where we were last options expiration day (Feb 20th). We nailed the market turn to a tee, beginning with my calls to go long on QLD, HOV and FAS while shorting the SKF at $250 (now $138) in last Friday’s appearance on LiveStock. In fact, my closing comment in Friday morning’s post was: "We EXPECT a 400-point BOUNCE along this downtrend so we’re not even impressed with anything less than 7,000 next week."
We did a little further investigation in member chat yesterday and decided that we need to break 7,450 on the Dow to actually be impressed next week. Our main concern is we get a quick spike up to that level and then a rejection that sends us racing down to the bottom so we will be positioning to guard against that next week. At the moment, we ended the day slightly bullish but would not be surprised by a drop back to the 7,000 line and we’re positioned for that, as we sold the 3/31 $72 puts against our longer puts. The $2.25 we collected from those pays for us to roll up our long protection 400 Dow points but, to the downside, put a break on our insurance at the 7,000 line (the point at which they go in the money).
By contrast, last Friday, my advice to members was to cover the long DIA puts with $70 puts at $4.32. Those are now .61 and the profits from that already paid for more than half the cost of our long June puts. This is very important to understand as we often talk about being 50/50 or 60/40 bearish but when you can offset 1/2 the cost of your 60% bearish side like this, it makes it very easy to go with the flow on a market rally. The only other stock I picked on Friday was AMZN as $62.50 for reasons I elaborated in the live show, they finished up near the highs at $68.63 but the FAS as $2.85 was a real winner, finishing up at $5.15 yesterday – not bad for a week’s work.
Of course nothing says…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(