Bull foresees healthy rally for UnitedHealth Group
by Phil - June 8th, 2009 6:04 pm
Today’s tickers: UNH, USO, MNKD, POT, X, MCD, PALM, S & JPM
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Penn Gaming joins casino-movers – put options in action
by Andrew Wilkinson - May 26th, 2009 5:59 pm
Today’s tickers: PENN, CIT, EXPE, RF, XRT, FITB, UNH, UNG & MU
PENN – Shares of the gaming and racing company have lifted 8% to $30.79 amid gains experienced by a number of casino operators today. PENN edged onto our ‘hot by options volume’ market scanner after one investor initiated a put spread in the October contract. The spread was established through the purchase of 6,550 puts at the October 25 strike price for 2.02 each against the sale of 6,550 puts at the lower October 20 strike for a premium of 79 cents. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 1.23 and yields a maximum potential profit of 3.77 if shares declined to $20.00 by expiration. Such a trade could represent downside protection by an individual who is long the stock. Or, it could potentially represent a medium-term bearish position by a trader hoping to profit in the event of a 22% decline in shares through the breakeven point at $23.77 by expiration. – Penn National Gaming, Inc.
CIT – The bank holding company’s shares have rallied nearly 7% to $3.38 today, attracting some bullish option players seeking to benefit from further gains in the stock. Call-volume at the near-term June 5.0 strike price ballooned upward by more than 48,000 as investors purchased at least 37,200 contracts for an average premium of 23 cents each. The calls will begin to yield profits to investors if the underlying shares can increase 55% from the current price and surpass the breakeven point at $5.23 by expiration. Optimism spread to the July 5.0 strike where 5,500 calls were coveted for 40 cents apiece. Finally, the October 5.0 strike attracted some bullish action as well as some 2,000 calls appear to have been bought for 65 cents per contract. Option implied volatility climbed as high as 192% during the trading day up from Friday’s closing value of 151%. – CIT Group, Inc.
EXPE– Shares of the online travel company have climbed more than 6% to $15.88 amid renewed takeover chatter reported by one source. Option traders on EXPE have braced themselves for bullish movement in the stock as some 2,300 calls were purchased at the near-term June 17.5 strike price for an average premium of 35 cents per contract. In order to profit from a long-call position by expiration shares of Expedia must double today’s rally in order to breach the…
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Host Hotels & Resorts Put Options Sold
by Andrew Wilkinson - May 13th, 2009 6:19 pm
Today’s tickers: HST, GSI, CST, MGM, UNH, AMD, XLI & XLY
HST Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. – The stock has shed more than 9% to stand at $7.66 on the day. One investor has positioned himself to have shares put to him by expiration in June should shares continue to decline. The sale of 13,000 puts at the June 7.5 strike price for an average premium of 73 cents apiece allows this individual to accept the premium today while bearing the risk that shares continue to decline through $7.50 by expiration. If the puts land in-the-money, he will likely have the shares put to him at an effective price of $6.77. The stock last traded at $6.76 back on January 16, 2009 after declining from its 52-week high of $18.36 nearly one year ago to the day. The investor probably figures that if the puts remain out-of-the-money he retains the premium and is happy. If the puts land in-the-money he is also happy to have shares put to him at approximately one-third the value of the 52-week high for the stock.
GSI General Steel Holdings, Inc. – Shares of the operator of a number of Chinese steel companies have taken a nosedive today, losing more than 14.5% to stand at $4.72. The stock has eroded despite the fact that the firm’s adjusted earnings per share of 9 cents for the period ended March 31, 2009, beat analyst expectations which estimated loss of about a nickel per share. In line with the bearish move in the stock, one investor loaded up on downside protection in the near-term May contract. The sale of 5,000 calls at the May 5.0 strike price for a premium of 10 cents apiece was spread against the purchase of 5,000 puts at the same strike for 40 cents each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to 30 cents and yields a breakeven point to the downside at $4.70. The stock must fall by at least 2 pennies before the trader begins to experience gains on the long put position.
COST Costco Wholesale Corp. – The operator of membership warehouses that offer branded and private label goods ranging from gruyere cheese wedges to diamond rings has experienced a more than 2.5% decline to $45.49. We observed option traders bracing themselves for potential continued bearish movement in the stock. Investors loaded up on 4,400 puts at the…
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September SPDR puts active
by Andrew Wilkinson - May 8th, 2009 6:19 pm
Today’s tickers: SPY, F, DELL, SYMC, DE, FITB, ASML, SMH & UNH
SPY SPDR Trust Series – So implied volatility as measured by the fear gauge known as the VIX, the CBOE volatility index has come screaming off today after a nerve-soothing employment report. The VIX is down 2.17 points today to 31.25. The ongoing rally for equities is likely a snapback against an Armageddon-like scenario priced in to stocks throughout the first quarter. With a lessening in the economic contraction and today’s data icing the cake, investors have thrown in the towel on the bear market and have reduced demand for protection through puts. However, in the S&P index, one investor seems to feel that the rebound won’t extend beyond September and has bought a sizeable chunk of protective puts. The SPDR trades at one-tenth the value of the underlying index and today is 2.5% to the better at 93.15. Some 72,000 put options at the September contract have been purchased at the 75.0 strike for premiums anywhere between 1.84 and 2.05. Breakeven in the worst case example would be at 72.96. That would need a decline of 21.6% to come good. At some point, investors will sit around the camp fire and have a rethink after this huge counter-trend rally. What’s next?
F Ford Motor Company – The only big-three auto company in the US to remain standing without federal aid has climbed 2% to $6.20 per share today. The bullish move in shares could be due to the news that Ford may receive as much as $440 million in government loans. The money would be utilized to facilitate the conversion of a Michigan SUV (sport utility vehicle) factory to one that builds small, fuel-efficient automobiles. Ford edged onto our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner later on in the afternoon after one individual was seen getting bullish on the stock. In the January 2011 contract the trader was seen shedding 55,000 put options at the January 2.5 strike price for a premium of 80 cents apiece. The investor pockets the premium today as he does not see shares declining through $2.50 over the next year and a half. Option implied volatility on Ford is currently at 85%.
DELL Dell, Inc. – The just-in-time provider of personal computers attracted bullish options investors despite the more than 3.5% decline in shares to $10.65. Perhaps individuals looking for…
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Another Weak Weekly Wrap-Up
by Phil - March 1st, 2009 2:24 am
This is getting tedious!
We were bearish going into the week but not this bearish. It is unusual though that we have a weekly wrap-up with nothing but negative plays as we did last week but there was nothing very positive in the outlook after the action of the week of the 16th through the 20th, pictured here on this chart.
As I said in the last Weekly Wrap-Up: "Of course nothing beats sector specific covers against your own mix of positions but we like using the DIA puts as general portfolio coverage although, as I mentioned last week, both the DAX and the Qs may now have farther to fall." The Qs ended up dropping 8.5% for the week while the DAX tumbled 6%, underperforming other global indexes as we had expected it would. Our hedge play , the DIA June $77 puts, which we went with at $8.22 on Friday and half covered with March $75 puts at $3.85 ended up at $9.85 and $5.40, not much improvement but accomplishing it’s goal of converting a net $6.29 entry into puts that are now 100% in the money to our net entry. At this point, every point down on the Dow is a penny we realize in intrinsic value. Per our original plan, the $75 puts can still be rolled to 2x the Apr $66 puts, now $2.32, allowing for our long puts to be $11 in the money against the puts we sold. The reality is more complex than that as we day-traded the covers around and rolled up the longer puts but we went into this weekend with the same bearish half-cover, not wanting to take chances after Friday’s poor performance.
On Monday morning, I was not at all enthusiastic about our prospects for the week as we had the Bernanke testimony Tuesday and Wednesday and Trichet started us off with a thud by stating: ""In recent weeks we have seen the first signs of falling credit flows. An important part of this fall is demand-driven. However…there are indications that falling credit flows reflect also supply-side factors and tight financing conditions associated with a phenomenon of deleveraging. If such a behavior became widespread across the banking system, it would undermine the raison d’etre of the system as a whole." Perhaps he was channeling Nouriel Roubini, who on Saturday had told the Wall Street Journal: "J.P. Morgan took…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
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