Retail Bears Abound
by Andrew Wilkinson - February 23rd, 2011 4:12 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, IMAX, ADSK & OI
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Options traders are positioning for shares in the Retail ETF to fall substantially in the coming months. Massive bearish bets popped up on the XRT in the first half of the trading session with shares slipping further from last week’s new highs. The familiar outline of a put butterfly spread unfurled in the March contract, but was preceded by a large debit put spread initiated in the April contract within the first 15 minutes of trading. Pessimistic players are perhaps speculating that consumers, who now face heftier prices at the pump, are likely to tighten their grip on discretionary dollars going forward. Shares in the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, are currently down 2.4% at $48.02 as of 12:00pm in New York. In the past week shares in the ETF have pulled back 5.1% from an all-time high of $50.61 last Wednesday. One big put player is well-positioned to benefit from additional weakness in XRT shares in the near term. The investor purchased 20,000 puts at each of the March $46 and March $42 strikes, and sold 40,000 puts at the central March $44 strike, all for a net premium of $0.22 per contract. The net cost of the pessimistic play pales in comparison to the $1.78 per contract in maximum potential profits the investor enjoys if shares in the ETF drop to $44.00 ahead of March expiration. Meanwhile, the buyer of a 17,000-lot April $44/$47 put spread for a net premium of $0.57 per contract could walk away with up to $2.43 per contract in profits if shares in the fund slip beneath $44.00 by April expiration. Options implied volatility on the Retail SPDR has been on the rise throughout the trading session, and currently stands 12.6% higher on the session at 27.35% in early afternoon trade.…
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – Doubles in Trouble
by Phil - February 23rd, 2011 8:29 am
We’re watching our 100% lines.
While we did follow our plan and bought the F’ing dips yesterday – we did so cautiously as 3 of our 5 100% lines fell during the worst one-day drop since August 11th of last year. Not shown on this chart, the NYSE fell 2.1% to 8,325 and the Russell landed down 1.9% at 812. That means, other than the Nas – all of our indices bounced off and held their 2.5% lines and we can forgive the Nas because it was dragged down by AAPL, who was a BUYBUYBUY for us on the $340 line.
The 100% (off the March 9 lows) levels were discussed, along with the chart for the S&P showing our critical ranges, in this weekend’s "Fibonacci Rules – Sometimes, the Old Ways Are the Best!" so I’m not going to waste any time going over that but, for a quick reference, our 100% levels are: Dow 12,938, S&P 1,332, Nasdaq 2,530, NYSE 8,362 and Russell 800 (100% was 685). With the RUT so far over their 100% line, we used them as a key index hedge and the TZA’s banged right up to our target $13.50 into yesterday’s close and we took that money and ran ahead of the reverse split in our favorite Ultra-ETF this evening.
Clearly from the above chart, you can see how our logic pays off. Also, we chose the Dow for our long index for the same reason as they were lagging the others by a wide margin so we played the pair of Dow up and Russell down to cover some of our trades. Another place we took the money and ran was XLE, which was a $25,000 Portfolio trade in yesterday’s morning Alert to Members. We added 10 of the XLE March $75 puts at .85 and that could not have gone better as they ran straight up to $1.30, where we got out of dodge (you can see our volume enter and exit below) as it was enough to get us out of a previous XLE position that had hurt us all even, leaving our virtual $25,000 Portfolio nicely balanced at $27,511, up just over 10% in 15 trading days and on track for our goal of $100,000 by the year’s end. We just need to make more trades like this and we’ll be…
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Three-Legged Bears Tackle Emerging Markets Options
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 19th, 2011 4:14 pm
Today’s tickers: EEM, MRVL, BCSI & XRT
EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF – A number of large-volume spreads on the emerging markets fund this morning signal investor pessimism on the sector through February expiration. Shares of the EEM, an exchange-traded fund designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets, fell 0.50% to $47.62 by 12:20pm in New York. Three-legged bearish spreads, wherein investors sold out-of-the-money calls to partially finance the purchase of put spreads, are popular with strategists populating the EEM today. The larger of two similar bearish plays involved the sale of 15,500 calls up at the February $52 strike for a premium of $0.05 each, purchase of the same number of puts at the February $47 strike at a premium of $0.96 apiece, and the sale of 15,500 puts at the lower February $43 strike for premium of $0.19 each. The net cost of the transaction amounts to $0.72 per contract and positions the responsible party to profit should shares in the EEM decline another 2.80% from the current price of $47.62 to breach the effective breakeven point to the downside at $46.28 ahead of February expiration day. Maximum potential profits of $3.28 per contract are available to the trader should shares in the ETF drop 9.7% lower to trade below $43.00 before the contracts expire next month. A like-minded tactician established a similar spread, but sold call and put options at closer-to-the-money strikes to further reduce the premium required to take a bearish stance on the fund. This options player sold 14,000 of the February $50 strike calls, picked up 14,000 puts at the February $47 strike, and sold the same number of puts at the February $43 strike. The trader paid a net premium of $0.24 per contract and breaks even on the spread if the EEM’s shares decline 1.80% to trade below $46.76 ahead of expiration. Maximum potential profits of $1.76 per contract pad the investor’s wallet should shares dip below $45.00 at expiration next month. Selling calls at the February $50 and $52 strikes reduces the cost of the bearish spreads, but is not a riskless tactic to employ. Investors are on the hook to deliver…
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Three-Legged Bear Shops for Retail Sector ETF Options
by Andrew Wilkinson - January 7th, 2011 4:06 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, APOL, VCI & MRVL
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – The retail sector may be poised for a pullback according to one options strategist who initiated a three-legged bearish combination spread using call and put options set to expire in March. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, fell as much as 0.93% during the session thus far to touch an intraday low of $46.64. The three-legged bear sold out-of-the-money calls in order to partially offset the cost of buying a put spread. Legs of the spread include the sale of 7,500 calls at the March $51 strike for a premium of $0.40 each, purchase of 7,500 now in-the-money puts at the March $47 strike at a premium of $1.64 per contract, and the sale of 7,500 puts at the March $41 strike for premium of $0.42 apiece. The net cost of establishing the spread amounts to $0.82 per contract and positions the pessimistic player to profit should shares in the XRT decline another 1.00% from the current price to breach the breakeven point on the downside at $46.18 by March expiration. Maximum potential profits of $5.18 per contract are available to the investor in the event that XRT shares plummet 12.1% in the next couple of months to trade below $41.00 by expiration day. The outright bearish transaction contrasts with what appears to be a short straddle at the March $47 strike. It looks like the 3,500-lot short straddle provided the investor with gross premium of $3.87 per contract, which he keeps in full as long as shares settle at $47.00 at expiration day. The trader responsible for the short straddle could suffer devastating losses if the fund’s shares break out of the share price range dictated by the premium received, or buffer against losses through expiration. Losses start to accrue should shares rally above the upper breakeven point at $50.87, or if shares slip beneath the lower breakeven price of $43.13 before the contracts expire in March.…
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Wednesday Worries – Ireland “Fixed” – Who’s Next?
by Phil - December 8th, 2010 8:28 am
So many things are pissing me off today.
I got my political outrage out of the way in my earlier post: "Thanks for the Gas Money, Mr. President," so we don’t need to talk about that again. Ireland, as of 7:45, has not actually voted to accept the EU’s deal, which will pull $20,000 per Irish family directly from national pension funds to pay for the speculative mistakes of Irish Banks. Additionally, the Irish people are being asked to borrow another $75,000 per family from the EU at about 6% interest, also to pay for the speculative mistakes made by the Irish Banks. While this may seem insane – it’s only a drop in the bucket compared to what Americans are spending to bail out our own speculators so why shouldn’t they join the club?
At least Ireland gets to vote for their obligations, we have a Federal Reserve System where a single man, known as "The Bernank" is able to spend what is now heading towards $3.5Tn of OUR MONEY to bail out his banking buddies. That’s $31,818 per American family spent over two years IN ADDITION to the stuff I complained about Obama and our spineless Government spending in the last post.
As I said, things are pissing me off today! I should be in a better mood – we had a fabulous day trading in Member Chat yesterday. In yesterday’s post, I closed with "One last stab at making some bearish profits for us (see Morning Alert)" and you can click on that Alert, which was posted on Seeking Alpha and check out our trade ideas for the $10,000 to $50,000 Portfolio which included (at 7:22 am yesterday) QID Jan $10 calls, which opened at $1.80 and finished at $2 (up 11%), DIA Dec $114 puts, which opened at .80 and finished at $1.33 (up 66%), XRT Jan $44 puts, which opened at .35 and finished at .55 (up 57%), USO Jan $36 puts, which opened at .66 and finished at .90 (up 36%), PCLN weekly $400 puts, which opened at $50 and finished at $1.40 (up 180%) and NFLX Jan $155 puts, which opened at $1.70 and finished at $2.30 (up 35%) but should look much better this morning, where we will exit.
Of course I featured the idea to short NFLX last Thursday…
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Thursday Thrust – Just Buy the F’ing Dips!
by Phil - December 2nd, 2010 8:04 am
It’s very sad when you can get your best financial advice from cartoon characters.
I apologize for the language but this video pretty much says it all. As the man in green says: "Buy the f’ing dip, you f’ing idiot." That’s the entirety of the market strategy we are being trained like Pavlov’s dogs to follow. Also as the man says "Now, don’t forget this only works if you go out and tell all your friends and family to do the same. That way, when they are buying more expensively than you, you can sell back to them and collect your money."
Of course it’s a Ponzi scheme but it’s a gigantic, legal one and the best thing about it is that the Government FORCES everyone to play so you never run out of suckers. When there is a lack of actual new sucker/investors to put money in, the Government steps in with stimulus or buys equities (QE1) or buy Treasuries from the banks so they can have free capital to buy equities with (QE2). They debase the currency and drive inflation higher while talking it up even more so and virtually penalizing people for saving money and not shopping. In this way, the US Government places a tax on every single citizen through a systemic devaluation of their lifetime accumulation of wealth as well as unfavorable savings and inflation conditions that are aimed to force money into equities and commodities.
What is the logic to this? Well, none if you are a government that actually cares about the long-term benefit of 310M people but we haven’t had a government that was "for the people" since they put two in the back of Kennedy’s neck so why complain about it now? What we should be doing is celebrating the sheer stupidity of the situation and enjoying the ride as this stock market roller coaster clacks up the tracks – towards a drop that is certain to have investors screaming all the way down but, for now, let’s listen to what the Bernanke Bears have to say in their latest cartoon about the Bank America crisis with WikiLeaks as well as their advice on NFLX and CRM:
Now, what could be more simple than that? Just take all your money out of bank stocks and put it into NetFlix. Well, maybe not NFLX as we…
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Demand for FedEx Corp. Calls Jumps
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 29th, 2010 4:46 pm
Today’s tickers: FDX, XRT, FRX & HANS
FDX - FedEx Corp. – Shares of the delivery services firm increased as much as 3.4% in the first half of the trading session to secure an intraday high of $90.49 after it was upgraded to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral’ with a target share price of $111.00 at Credit Suisse. The positive ratings change and subsequent rally in the price of the underlying shares spurred demand for near-term call options. Bullish players expecting FedEx to extend gains purchased at least 2,800 now in-the-money calls at the December $90 strike for an average premium of $2.13 a-pop. Call buyers are poised to profit should FedEx Corp.’s shares increase another 1.80% over today’s high of $90.49 to exceed the average breakeven price of $92.13 ahead of December expiration. More than 5,800 calls changed hands at the December $90 strike versus previously existing open interest of 4,243 lots at that strike. Options strategists also exchanged 1,400 calls at the higher December $95 strike by 1:15 pm in New York trading. The surge in demand for near-term call options on FDX lifted the stock’s overall reading of options implied volatility 5.9% to 29.91% this afternoon.
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Put players flocked to the retail SPDR to initiate bearish positions on the fund right out of the gate this morning. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to replicate the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, fell as much as 2.04% to touch down at an intraday low of $46.48. A sizeable ratio put spread drew our attention to the front month where one investor purchased 5,300 in-the-money puts at the December $47 strike for a premium of $1.45 each, and sold 10,600 puts at the lower December $45 strike at a premium…
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Straddle Seller Foresees Range-Bound Shares for Flextronics
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 16th, 2010 4:03 pm
Today’s tickers: FLEX, NXY, XRT & HON
FLEX - Flextronics International, Ltd. – A sizeable short straddle initiated on Singapore-based Flextronics International this morning indicates one options player expects to see limited fluctuations in the price of the underlying shares through January 2011 expiration. Shares in Flextronics, which manufactures thousands of electronic devices, are up 0.45% at $6.90 as of 12:05 pm after Singapore reported a surge in exports in the month of October. The straddler sold 10,000 calls at the January 2011 $7.5 strike for a premium of $0.26 each in combination with the sale of 10,000 puts at the same strike for a premium of $0.81 a-pop. Gross premium pocketed on the straddle amounts to $1.07 per contract. The investor keeps the full amount of premium received if FLEX shares settle at $7.50 at expiration. Short positions taken in both call and put options expose the trader to losses in the event that shares shift significantly away from the selected strike price. Losses start to amass if shares rally above the upper breakeven price of $8.57, or if shares slip beneath the lower breakeven point at $6.43 ahead of expiration. Flextronics’ overall reading of options implied volatility is up 8.3% at 41.57% as of 12:10 pm.
NXY - Nexen, Inc. – Contrarian trading in longer-dated call options on the Canadian oil and natural gas company appears to be the work of an optimistic strategist expecting Nexen’s shares to rebound ahead of June 2011 expiration. Nexen’s shares are currently down 5.4% to stand at $21.00 as of 11:35 am in New York. At an investor conference this morning the firm’s CEO said Nexen will likely focus on developing existing holdings rather than pursuing additional acquisitions. Yesterday Nexen revealed plans to spend roughly $2.4 to $2.7 billion next year to promote…
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Bullish Players Frequent Las Vegas Sands as Shares Continue to Hit New 52-Week Highs
by Andrew Wilkinson - November 2nd, 2010 8:16 am
Today’s tickers: LVS, INTC, DFS, BIG, SWN, MRVL, XRT & FTNT
LVS - Las Vegas Sands Corp. – Shares of the casino resort operator rallied as much as 3.5% during the trading session to hit an intraday- and new 52-week high of $47.48 on news Macau casino revenue, bolstered by China’s Golden Week holiday, jumped 50% to a record in October. Analysts at Morgan Stanley raised their target price on LVS to $50.00 from $36.00, maintained an ‘overweight’ rating on the stock, upped their EPS estimate on the company for fiscal 2010 to $0.96 a share from $0.69 a share, and increased their EPS forecast for 2011 for LVS to $1.85 per share from $1.19 per share. Options traders are initiating bullish positions on the casino operator today and are currently trading more than 2.2 calls on the stock for each single put option changing hands. Near-term November contract calls and puts are the most popular with less than 30 minutes remaining before the final bell. Bulls sold more than 1,000 puts at the November $45 and $47 strikes to pocket an average premium of $1.23 and $2.10, respectively. Investors short the puts keep the premium received as long as shares exceed the strike prices described by November expiration. Meanwhile, call buyers scooped up 1,600 in-the-money contracts at the November $46 strike for an average premium of $2.63 each. Another 1,100 calls were purchased at the higher November $47 strike for an average premium of $2.14 a-pop. Investors hoping to see LVS shares increase significantly before the year ends purchased some 1,800 calls up at the December $50 strike for an average premium of $2.24 per contract. Traders holding these contracts profit if Las Vegas Sands’ shares surge 10.00% over today’s high of $47.48 to trade above the effective breakeven price of $52.24 by expiration day next month. Options implied volatility on LVS is up 5.7% to arrive at 50.30% as of 3:40 pm in New York trading.
INTC - Intel Corp. – One big options…
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Retail-Bear Initiates Put ‘Fly On XRT
by Andrew Wilkinson - October 25th, 2010 9:04 pm
Today’s tickers: XRT, SM, AMD, MEE, EXPE, CTV & MYL
XRT - SPDR S&P Retail ETF – Pessimism on the retail ETF took the form of a put butterfly spread today, suggesting one strategist is prepared for the price of the underlying fund to decline by December expiration. Shares of the XRT, an exchange-traded fund designed to track the performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, are up 0.95% this afternoon to stand at $43.75 as of 3:10 p.m. in New York trading. The XRT’s shares are higher today following reports that economists increased estimates for consumer purchases in the third quarter after retail sales rose more than expected in September. But, nearly all of the activity in XRT options took place in puts and implies a bearish slant on the fund today. The butterfly spread involved the purchase of 5,600 puts at the December $43 strike at a premium of $1.45 each [wing 1], the sale of 11,200 puts at the December $39 strike for a premium of $0.47 per contract [body], and the purchase of 5,600 puts at the lower December $35 strike at a premium of $0.19 apiece [wing 2]. Net premium paid to initiate the bearish spread amounts to $0.70 per contract, thus positioning the investor to make money if shares of the XRT fall 3.3% from the current price of $43.75 to breach the effective breakeven point at $42.30 by expiration day in December. Maximum potential profits of $3.30 per contract are available to the trader if the price of the underlying fund declines 10.85% to settle at $39.00 at expiration. The investor paid $0.70 per contract, but stands prepared to gain more than 4.7 times that amount, or $3.30 per contract, if the transaction comes good by December expiration.
SM - SM Energy Co. – Shares of the U.S. producer of oil and natural gas rose 4.05% today to $42.34 as of 3:25 p.m. The current rally may be an extension of gains realized last week on news the…
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Philip R. Davis is a founder Phil's Stock World, a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders...
Ilene is editor and affiliate program
coordinator for PSW. She manages the Favorites backup site
(